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Updates on Avian Flu


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There is a good deal more info here----


The Global Crisis Advisory™ Copyright ©2005 by Geri Guidetti

We at The Ark Institute trust that you recognize that a very serious crisis may confront the United States this Fall or at any time in the next year. It is especially serious because of all the developed nations of the world, the United States is simply the least prepared in virtually every way! Hard to believe, isn’t it? We didn’t want to believe it either, but the facts were just too shocking to ignore! We now recognize our Government sees the writing on the wall as well, because there is a sudden flurry of coverage of bird flu on virtually all media outlets, and an occasional interview granted or statement made by a public health official. At least they’ll be able to say, “We told you so!”

Given the poor level of preparation in this country and the fact that other countries will not be coming to our rescue with vaccines, anti-virals, mechanical respirators, masks and other critical supplies (they will be taking care of their own citizens), it is going to be up to all of us to educate ourselves, distinguish hype and comforting spin from the truth, and take care of ourselves and our loved ones when this next Pandemic arrives. We can pray that we have a couple of years to prepare, but the real experts we have spoken to believe we have only weeks to months the way things look in Asia.

Over 50% of humans infected have died, and unlike regular flu, H5N1 is an equal opportunity killer. Over 50% of its victims range in age from the late teens to the forties. The other 50% are children and older people. If that fatality rate and demographics were to continue, the impact on human life and living would be nothing short of catastrophic. Life would be forever altered. We are hoping we, working with you and a growing group of honest, compassionate experts who have publicly admitted that they are very concerned, will have a positive impact on the outcome of this Pandemic no matter when it hits. Frankly, we must work together to save as many lives as possible.

For this reason, Geri Guidetti is providing an outstanding, informative, up to the minute resource- The Global Crisis Advisory™ - containing the most critical information you will need to educate yourself and prepare your family.




Obviously, if anything near this fatality rate occurs, the outcome would be catastrophic for the entire human race. Civilization as we know it would simply cease to exist. Dr. Michael Osterholm is Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, and Associate Director of the Department of Homeland Security’s National Center for Food Protection and Defense. He is respected worldwide in matters of emerging diseases, bioterrorism and public policy surrounding these issues. In the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs, a journal published by the Foreign Affairs Council, Dr. Osterholm cites evidence and warns of the likely impacts of a pandemic that might strike “tonight”, a year or ten years from now :

· Recent evidence suggests the current H5N1 strain would be similar to the 1918 pandemic.

· More than half of those killed in 1918 were healthy 18 to 40 years old.

· Victims in 1918 succumbed to immune system responses called “cytokine storms” that lead to acute respiratory distress. Victims of today’s H5N1 are succumbing to cytokine storms, and we are still largely unprepared to treat it.

· A vaccine would not be available for months after a pandemic started because manufacturers would have to know what strain to make a vaccine against. Then it would take about 6 months to make if all went well. It would have little impact on the pandemic during the first 12-18 months after it became available.

· Antibiotics to treat the secondary bacterial infections that can occur in viral pandemics will be “either unavailable or in short supply” for much of the global population.

· “Virtually every piece of medical equipment and protective gear would be in short supply within days of the recognition of a pandemic.” There are only 105,000 mechanical ventilators in US hospitals. Every day, 75-80,000 are in use. During a pandemic, the U.S. might need several hundred thousand additional ventilators. Two countries in the U.S. provide most of the protective masks for healthcare institutions around the world. Their components come from components provided by multiple countries. “….masks may not even be produced at all.” Will doctors and nurses continue working without such protection? Gymnasiums and community centers would become hospitals that would need staff for one to three years. They would likely die at the same rate everyone else was dying.

· Supplies of antiviral drugs are very limited. Tamiflu takes up to a year to produce and has been ordered by 14 countries, including the U.S. Supplies of all anti-virals in the U.S. are limited due to manufacturing problems. Who will have access to the very limited supply?

· Foreign trade would be reduced or end to prevent the virus from entering other countries. “…the global economy would shut down.”

· Illegal border crossings would prevent successful containment.

· Up to 50% of the labor forces of affected countries might be ill. There would be shortages of “food, soap, paper, light bulbs, gasoline, parts for repairing military equipment and municipal water pumps...” Non-critical industries such as electronics and automobiles might even close. School, theaters, restaurants might be “banned.”

· How countries would “survive” 12-36 months of “extensive, long-term outages” needs to be determined.

· “Global, regional and national economies would come to an abrupt halt…the closest the world has come to this scenario in modern times was the SARS crisis of 2003….Once SARS emerged in rural China, it spread to five countries within 24 hours and to 30 countries on six continents within several months.”

· Widespread infection and collapse of economies could lead to the destabilization of governments.

· If we have a year before it hits, pandemic planning “must be on the agenda of every school board, manufacturing plant, investment firm, mortuary, state legislature, and food distributor in the United States and beyond…Critical health-care and consumer products and commodities must be stockpiled.” Vaccines could play a bigger role so efforts must be made to increase the supply and ensure there are enough syringes to administer it. Ethical issues such as how such a vaccine would be allocated around the world need to be dealt with now.

· The public is often “indifferent” to disease warnings but fear often hits after catastrophic infections hit, when it is too late for prevention and control. Time is running out to prepare.



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I really have to wonder at the media timing of these kinds of things. Why now? Why not earlier this summer in the "slow news" times? Why when we're already flooded with Hurricane Katrina info and government news? Does the media WANT us to miss this stuff?


This is a pretty serious scenario. I hope our friends here are wise enough to study this issue with a calm mind and rational thought.


Fear alone is *not* productive.


Thanks, Lois!





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Just had a long talk with DS and DIL about this. Talked with DH and DD last night and will talk to other DS this afternoon when he is over. Told them all that now is the time to prepare for the worst and pray for the best. I told them that I would rather be prepared and thought of as the family loony, than to not be ready.

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Ok, so after having talks with the family this week-end DH sends me this from work today....at least he's is listening to me!


How To Avoid The Flu.....

Eat right! Make sure you get your daily dose of fruits and veggies.

Take your vitamins and bump up your vitamin C.

Get plenty of exercise because exercise helps build your immune system.

Walk for at least an hour a day, go for a swim,

take the stairs instead of the elevator, etc.

Wash your hands often. If you can't wash them,

keep a bottle of antibacterial stuff around.

Get lots of fresh air. Open windows whenever possible.

Get plenty of rest.

Try to eliminate as much stress from your life as you can.






Take the doctor's office approach.



Think about it...



When you go for a shot, what do they do first?



Clean your arm with alcohol..






Because alcohol kills germs.









I walk to the liquor store. (exercise )



I put lime in my Corona...(fruit)



Celery in my Bloody Mary (veggies)



Drink outdoors on the bar patio..(fresh air)



Tell jokes, laugh..(eliminate stress)



Then pass out. (rest)



The way I see it...






If you keep your alcohol levels up,



flu germs can't get you!!!!




My grandmother always said, "A shot in the glass is better than one in the [azz]!"






Live Well



Laugh Often

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From Reuters:



World has slim chance to stop flu pandemic

Sep 20, 2005 — By Michael Perry

NOUMEA, New Caledonia (Reuters) - The initial outbreak of what could explode into a bird flu pandemic may affect only a few people, but the world will have just weeks to contain the deadly virus before it spreads and kills millions.

Chances of containment are limited because the potentially catastrophic infection may not be detected until it has already spread to several countries, like the SARS virus in 2003. Avian flu vaccines developed in advance will have little impact on the pandemic virus.

It will take scientists four to six months to develop a vaccine that protects against the pandemic virus, by which time thousands could have died. There is little likelihood a vaccine will even reach the country where the pandemic starts.

That is the scenario outlined on Tuesday by Dr Hitoshi Oshitani, the man who was on the frontline in the battle against SARS and now leads the fight against avian flu in Asia.

"SARS in retrospect was an easy virus to contain," said Oshitani, the World Health Organization's Asian communicable diseases expert.

"The pandemic virus is much more difficult, maybe impossible, to contain once it starts," he told Reuters at a WHO conference in Noumea, capital of the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia. "The geographic spread is historically unprecedented."

Oshitani said nobody knew when a pandemic would occur, it could be within weeks or years, but all the conditions were in place, save one — a virus that transmitted from human to human.

The contagious H5N1 virus, which has killed 64 people in four Asian countries since it was first detected in 2003, might not be the one to trigger the pandemic, he said. Instead a genetically different strain could develop that passes between humans.

While bird flu cases continued to spread throughout Asia, with Indonesia this week placed on alert after reporting four deaths, Oshitani said the winter months of December, January and February would see an acceleration in cases, and the more human cases the greater risk that the virus would mutate.



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