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President Bush - Avian Flu


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(In case the link expires) The article in full:

 

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Bush Considers Military Role in Flu Fight

Oct 04 12:38 PM US/Eastern

 

By JENNIFER LOVEN

Associated Press Writer

 

WASHINGTON

 

President Bush, increasingly concerned about a possible avian flu pandemic, revealed Tuesday that any part of the country where the virus breaks out could likely be quarantined and that he is considering using the military to enforce it.

 

"The best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and keep it isolated in the region in which it begins," he said during a wide-ranging Rose Garden news conference.

 

The president was asked if his recent talk of giving the military the lead in responding to large natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina and other catastrophes was in part the result of his concerns that state and local personnel aren't up to the task of a flu outbreak.

 

"Yes," he replied.

 

After the bungled initial federal response to Katrina, Bush suggested putting the Pentagon in charge of search-and-rescue efforts in times of a major terrorist attack or similarly catastrophic natural disaster. He has argued that the armed forces have the ability to quickly mobilize the equipment, manpower and communications capabilities needed in times of crisis.

 

But such a shift could require a change in law, and some in Congress and the states worry it would increase the power of the federal government at the expense of local control.

 

Bush made clear that the potential for an outbreak of avian flu is much on his mind, and has him talking with "as many (world) leaders as I could find" and reading a book on the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed 40 million and consulting staff and experts.

 

"I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean," he said.

 

He acknowledged that a quarantine - an idea sure to alarm many in the public - is no small thing for the government to undertake and that enforcing it would be tricky.

 

"It's one thing to shut down airplanes," Bush said. "It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu."

 

He urged Congress to give him the ability to use the military, if needed.

 

"I think the president ought to have all... assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant," he said.

 

Bush also said he has been urging world leaders to improve reporting on outbreaks of the virus, and exploring how to speed the production of a spray, now in limited supply, that "can maybe help arrest the spread of the disease."

 

"One of the issues is how do we encourage the manufacturing capacity of the country, and maybe the world, to be prepared to deal with the outbreak of a pandemic?" he said.

 

Experts agree there will certainly be another flu pandemic - a new human flu strain that goes global. However, it is unknown when or how bad that global epidemic will be - or whether the H5N1 bird flu strain now circulating in Asian poultry will be its origin.

 

Just in case, experts are tracking the avian flu, which has swept through poultry populations in large swaths of Asia since 2003, jumped to humans and killed at least 65 people.

 

Most human cases have been linked to a contact with sick birds, but the World Health Organization has warned the virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among humans - changing it from a bird virus to a human pandemic flu strain.

 

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Do you know that every time President Bush makes a speech, the transcript is posted on http://www.whitehouse.gov/ ?

 

This entire speech: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/20...20051004-1.html

 

I found it interesting that President Bush addressed the Avian Flu in his speech to the UN:

 

"As we strengthen our commitments to fighting malaria and AIDS, we must also remain on the offensive against new threats to public health such as the Avian Influenza. If left unchallenged, this virus could become the first pandemic of the 21st century. We must not allow that to happen. Today I am announcing a new International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza. The Partnership requires countries that face an outbreak to immediately share information and provide samples to the World Health Organization. By requiring transparency, we can respond more rapidly to dangerous outbreaks and stop them on time. Many nations have already joined this partnership; we invite all nations to participate. It's essential we work together, and as we do so, we will fulfill a moral duty to protect our citizens, and heal the sick, and comfort the afflicted." September 14, 2005

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/20...9/20050914.html (about half-way down)

 

Our own intelligent media focused on his note to Ms Rice about a bathroom break.

 

 

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Watched CNN news very early this morning. Dr. Sanje Gupda was on saying this flu has a mortality rate of over 50 percent. The military would have to be in full hazmat suits to respond. Isolating the flu victims would mean that over 50 percent would not make it. What a diaster going house to house to collect the victims. We all have to be vigil and take care of our bodies. Wash hands, not go into large crowds, eat healthy, take vitamins. I still do not know if I want to chance this years flu shots. They are immunizing us for last years strains of flu. Ideas?

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I have started the entire family on multi vitamins, and have bottle of hand sanitizer sitting in every room , for quick touch ups. also in case of this flu, I am checking my inventory...

I will start tomorrow on restocking my flu and cold medications.

Also replenishing my first aid supplies

and will also go on a pantry stocking run... to make sure we have plenty of liquids,, such as gatorade, and pedialyte and sprites,, to help with dehydration...

So if there is a quarantine,,, we will not have to worry about not having the necessities for a while...

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I have made my own hand sanitizer using 1/2 cup aloe vera gel and 1 cup alcohol. Smells like alcohol, but is cheap. Hydrating powder: 1/3 t baking soda, 1/2 t potassium chloride (lite salt) 10 t sugar. Mix and keep in jar. If needed mix whole jar in quart of water and drink. Works as well as gator ade. I mix with kool aid for the grandkids or crystal light for me. Anyone have a willow tree? willow bark simmered works to reduce fever, tastes bitter, but works. Vinegar, take a tablespoon in warm water with lemon and honey, soothes throats and eases coughs. You get addicted to the stuff, drink mine every day. (Just vinegar and water. Helps with bladder infections too. Been known to swig out of the bottle without water. Gross huh? Kinda got addicted to the taste of vinegar. DH is now taking vinegar in water. Now to get him to quit smoking would be a blessig.

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Safetylady,

 

Thanks for the Hand Sanitizer and Hydrating Powder recipes. I'm printing them now.

 

I went to a local market yesterday that is frequented by a WIDE VARIETY of people because it specializes in "world foods". I was there 10 minutes and began to get a "tickle cough". Then I began to think about how many germs I was walking through, how many illegals are in the store that have had no health screenings, etc.... I couldn't wait to get out and use the hand sanitizer that was in my car. I even wiped off the pen I used to write the check. This is not normal thinking for me - I'm not usually this paranoid. However, I think I am going to limit my grocery shopping

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from Foxnews.com

 

 

Scientists: 1918 Killer Spanish Flu Was a Bird Flu

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

By Daniel J. DeNoon

 

 

STORIES LINKS

•Bush Pushes for Military to Quarantine Avian Flu Breakout

Scientists who re-created the 1918 Spanish flu say the killer virus was initially a bird flu that learned to infect people. Alarmingly, they find that today's H5N1 bird flu is starting to learn the same tricks.

 

The work involves researchers from the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP), the CDC, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Jeffery K. Taubenberger, MD, PhD, chief of molecular pathology at the AFIP, is one of the study leaders.

 

"These H5N1 viruses are being exposed to human adaptive pressures, and may be going down a similar path to the one that led to the 1918 virus," Taubenberger said in a news conference. "But the H5N1 strains have only a few of these mutations, whereas the 1918 virus has a larger number."

 

In 1918-1919, the so-called Spanish flu killed some 50 million people -- including 675,000 Americans. Most of the victims were healthy people in the prime of life.

 

The researchers’ findings -- published this week in the journals Nature and Science -- come from a remarkable decade-long effort to unlock the secrets of the most deadly flu bug ever known.

 

To do this, the researchers used a technique called reverse genetics to re-create a living 1918 virus. To do this, they gathered viral DNA from the preserved tissues of people who died in 1918 and 1919 -- including a woman whose body was frozen in the Alaskan permafrost.

 

Bird Flu FAQ: What is Bird Flu?

 

Past Virus, Future Virus

 

The resurrected virus now lives in high-level containment within the CDC. But that's not what worries public health officials.

 

The 1918 flu, analysis shows, is a bird flu that learned how to spread among humans. Genetic analysis shows that the deadly H5N1 bird flu now circulating in Asia seems to be learning the same thing.

 

Like the 1918 virus, the milder pandemic flu bugs of 1957 and 1968 also had bird flu genes. But they picked up the ability to spread in humans by swapping genes with a human flu virus. That could still happen to the H5N1 bird flu. But even if it doesn't, the bug seems to be slowly adapting to humans.

 

The good news is that the H5N1 flu bug still has a long way to go. The 1918 bug seemed to need several changes in every one of its eight genes. The H5N1 virus is making similar changes but isn't very far along.

 

"So, for example, in the nuclear protein gene we speculate there are six genes crucial [for human adaptation]," Taubenberger says. "Of those six, three are present in one or another H5N1 strain. But usually there is only one of these changes per virus isolate. That is true of other genes as well. You see four, five, or six changes per gene in the 1918 virus, whereas H5N1 viruses only have one change or so. It shows they are subjected to similar [evolutionary] pressures, but the H5 viruses are early on in this process."

 

Scientists in Desperate Race With Bird Flu

 

How Much Time Do We Have?

 

How long does this process take? Nobody knows. Taubenberger says the 1918 bird virus appeared in humans "a couple of years" before 1918. But how long it took the virus to jump species from birds to humans is unknown.

 

There is one ominous sign. It's in a flu gene protein called PB2. A single change in this gene makes H5N1 extremely deadly to mice. The same single change helps bird flu to adapt to mammals.

 

For example, the change in PB2 was seen in six of the seven H5N1 viruses spreading among captive tigers in Thailand. The same change popped up in the only human to die during an outbreak of another bird flu, H7N7, in the Netherlands. And it's present in recent H5N1 viruses from humans in Vietnam and Thailand and from wild birds in China.

 

"The fact that [gene] changes identified in the 1918 analysis are also seen in highly pathogenic avian influenza strains of H5N1 and H7N7 is intriguing, and suggests that these changes may facilitate virus replication in human cells and increase pathogenicity," Taubenberger and colleagues write in their Nature paper.

 

New Information to Help Fight Flu

 

Scary as it is to take a close-up look at killer flu bugs, it's a good thing to do. Knowing the enemy helps us find ways to defeat it, says Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

 

"There are a number of ways one needs to prepare for a flu pandemic. And there is no better way than understanding the issues described here -- particularly the adaptability of the virus in a sense of efficient person-to-person spread and pathogenesis," Fauci said at the news conference.

 

CDC Director Julie Gerberding, MD, MPH, says the 1918 virus has a lot to teach us.

 

"We have been able to unmask the 1918 virus and it is revealing to us some of the secrets that will help us prepare for the next pandemic," Gerberding said at the news conference. "Some of those secrets are what led to efficient transmission in people -- and what made it so deadly. This important science does create new information and clues that will ... accelerate development of our antiviral drug stockpile and vaccines to protect against H5N1 or another virus."

 

Mount Sinai researcher Adolfo Garcia-Sastre, PhD, is one of the developers of the reverse genetic technique used to reconstruct the 1918 virus. He says the genetic changes that help flu bugs adapt to humans appear to be common to all type A flu viruses.

 

"What is interesting is these genes seem to be involved in the virulence of other flu viruses, not just bird flu," Garcia-Sastre said at the news conference. "So there are common themes involved in the virulence of flu viruses. Now we have good clues for the development of new drugs against flu disease."

 

Bird Flu Vaccine Works in Humans

 

What if It Escapes?

 

The decision to re-create a living 1918 virus was made only after consultation with several advisory bodies, Gerberding and Fauci said. The bug now lives in a level 3+ containment facility at the CDC. Outside researchers are invited to study it -- but only at the CDC lab, and only with security clearance.

 

"It is unlikely this virus could emerge and cause a pandemic," Gerberding said. "It is important to emphasize we have erred on the side of caution at every stage. We have no intention of releasing this from the CDC any time soon."

 

Gerberding says that everything is being done to ensure that the bug stays in the lab. But if it were to escape, she says it probably would not rekindle a 1918-style epidemic. For one thing, it's an H1N1 virus, and the current annual flu vaccine contains an H1N1 virus. Moreover, most people have been exposed to H1N1 viruses, so many people would be immune.

 

None of this, however, means that a 1918 virus on the loose would be harmless. Natural and vaccine immunity probably would make the bug less deadly but would not offer full protection.

 

"We do not know the extent this [immunity] would protect people from harm," Gerberding noted. "But a pandemic in this context would be unlikely."

 

Meanwhile, researchers at The Institute for Genomic Research in Rockville, Md., plan a detailed analysis of large numbers of bird flu isolates. This, they say, will help them track the ongoing evolution of bird flu.

 

Bird Flu May Be More Contagious Than Thought

 

 

By Daniel J. DeNoon, reviewed by Louise Chang, MD

 

SOURCES: Taubenberger, J.K. Nature, Oct. 6, 2005; vol 437: pp 889-893. Tumpey, T.M. Science, Oct. 7, 2005; vol 310: pp 77-80. News conference, American Association for the Advancement of Science. Jeffery K. Taubenberger, MD, PhD, chief of molecular pathology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Md. Adolfo Garcia-Sastre, PhD, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York. Julie Gerberding, MD, MPH, director, CDC, Atlanta. Anthony Fauci, MD, director, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, Md. Terence Tumpey, PhD, influenza branch, CDC, Atlanta.

 

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from AP newswire via google on 10/5/5

 

 

US to host international conference on bird flu

Oct 05 4:31 PM US/Eastern

 

The US government will host an international conference this week, bringing together over 65 countries, on the bird flu virus in a bid to streamline an international response to a possible global pandemic, a government spokesman said.

 

 

 

Seven people have died of bird flu, or the H5N1 strain of avian flu, in Indonesia, while 43 have been killed in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia.

 

The World Health Organization fears the H5N1 strain will mutate, acquiring genes from the human influenza virus that would make it highly infectious and lethal to millions in a global pandemic.

 

But it has also urged calm, saying investigations in Indonesia had produced no evidence that H5N1 was spreading easily from person to person.

 

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the US-hosted conference here would kick off Thursday and run through to Friday.

 

"What this event does is it brings together 65-plus countries and international organizations that are concerned about preventing the spread of avian influenza," McCormack explained.

 

The spokesman said participating countries have either signed up to or will hopefully soon sign up to a core set of principles unveiled by the US at the UN in September.

 

"At the heart of these core principles are a few things. One, transparency, in terms of quick and accurate reporting of any potential outbreaks; donor support for those countries that either have been affected or might be affected; and a pledge to work closely with the World Health Organization," he said.

 

US President George W. Bush called for a "new international partnership" aimed at preventing avian influenza and other new strains of flu from becoming a global pandemic during an address to the UN General Assembly last month.

 

The American president told reporters Tuesday that his administration was concerned about a possible global epidemic and was studying various scenarios for dealing with an outbreak.

 

 

 

 

 

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Bird Flu May Be More Contagious Than Thought

Easy Human-to-Human Spread Surprises Experts

 

By Daniel DeNoon, WebMD Medical News

 

Reviewed By Michael Smith, MD Friday, January 07, 2005

 

 

 

Jan. 7, 2005 -- As many as 2,000 people got bird flu during the 2003 Netherlands outbreak, a Dutch investigation shows.

 

That's way up from the 69 cases previously reported. Even more ominous is the finding that person-to-person spread was vastly more efficient than ever before seen with bird flu. Nearly 60% of infected poultry workers' household contacts showed signs of infection.

 

The ongoing bird flu outbreaks in Asia and the 2003 Netherlands outbreak were caused by different strains of the virus. The Dutch bird flu virus is far less deadly to humans than the bird flu virus in Asia. There was only one death in the 2003 Netherlands outbreak. The Asian bird flu has killed dozens of people so far.

 

Experts say it's only a matter of time before these viruses evolve to the point where they spread easily from human to human. That hasn't yet happened, notes Arnold Bosman, MD, of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) in Bilthoven, Netherlands. But Bosman, who led the RIVM investigation for the Dutch government, says he's surprised by how easily the bird flu virus spread from chickens to poultry workers, and from workers to their families.

 

"If we look at the infection rate we found in poultry workers and their household contacts, it is very high considering other studies of avian flu," Bosman tells WebMD.

 

In a summary report on their findings to the European Union's Eurosurveillance Weekly web site, Bosman and colleagues suggest that bird flu may not have too much further to evolve to trigger a worldwide flu pandemic. They also note that human-to-human spread was common despite the best efforts of health authorities.

 

"Both [the Dutch and Asian] avian influenza outbreaks illustrate that crossing the species barrier is less rare than previously recognized, that avian influenza virus adaptation [to humans] occurs rapidly, and that if such jumps between species occur, human behavior in the broad sense may accelerate dissemination," Bosman and colleagues write.

 

Findings Controversial

 

Why did it take so long to find out so many people were infected with bird flu? Bosman says the blood test used to detect previous bird flu infections was faulty. His team developed a new test and found vastly more infections.

 

At first, Bosman says, he thought the new test had to be wrong. But positive results on the test correlated with the main human symptom of bird flu: the viral eye infection called conjunctivitis or redeye.

 

"We are pretty confident that the results really reflect true infection," Bosman says.

 

Walter Orenstein, MD, says it's hard to know what to make of these findings until it's clear that the test Bosman and colleagues used is truly valid. Orenstein is director of the vaccine policy and development program and associate director of the Vaccine Center at Emory University in Atlanta.

 

"This report is very intriguing. But it is hard to know what it means at this point. We need to know how valid this test is," Orenstein tells WebMD.

 

But if the test is valid, Orenstein says, it suggests that the 2003 bird flu outbreak spread far beyond poultry workers and their immediate household contacts.

 

"It would seem to me with that high a household secondary infection rate -- 59% -- you would think it would have gotten out into the community more," he says. "If it turns out to be a valid finding, it is of concern that there was a lot more spread than previously thought."

 

Even so, Orenstein notes that there's no reason to think that the far more deadly Asian bird flu is spreading as the bird flu did in the Netherlands.

 

"If true, this report suggests a lot of transmission to humans of a nonvirulent strain. That's very different from the situation in Asia, where you have very limited transmission to humans of a very virulent strain," he says.

 

Bosman says it's important to find out for sure whether a different test for the Asian bird flu virus would yield different results.

 

"We now need to assess whether there are more sensitive tests available to look more closely at the possibility of higher prevalence of other flu viruses," he says.

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

SOURCES: Bosman, A. Avian Flu Epidemic 2003: Public Health Consequences, RIVM report, December

 

from WebMD health news 10/5/5

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This is a friends view on this.. I mean no disrespect to anyone by posting this opinion.. I can delete it if it offends anyone..

 

 

Yes, he might have a concern about this flu, but the whole point is to get that law changed so the military can have authority over the American people. It's the same law they enacted after the Civil War...I can't remember the exact name at the moment. Want to see something scary...look up Hitler's Enabling Act and see how much it parallels the Patriot Act and this military reorganization. After reading that, tell me it's a good thing.

 

http://www.furnitureforthepeople.com/actpat.htm

 

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Romania detects bird flu in Danube delta

Fri Oct 7, 2005 6:04 PM BST

Printer Friendly | Email Article | RSS

 

BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romania detected on Friday its first case of avian flu in domestic birds in the Danube delta, Agriculture Minister Gheorghe Flutur said.

 

"We discovered today, three cases of domestic birds which were tested positive for the avian flu in the village of Ceamurlia de Jos in the Danube delta," Flutur told reporters.

 

Flutur would not comment whether the flu was the deadly H5N1 strain. "We will send the samples to Great Britain for a thorough analysis," he said.

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from http://today.reuters.co.uk/news

 

 

 

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As I understand it, the flu still has 6-8 mutuations to make before it would easily pass from human to human. (the good news)

 

But I heard it reported that out of 100 people who have caught it from birds, 70 have died. (the bad news)

 

I'm VERY sorry; I try to get information on sites with links. I *think* it was Paul Harvey I heard it on, but I'll have to listen to his online archive to see if it was, and then try to find good links.

 

I have to go watch a child till his parents get home, and my time's short right now.

 

 

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Can I say something about the "Houston Mess" Now remember this is just my own opinion...

I was 13 years old when Hurricane Carla came calling, my first hurricane. She came ashore in Point Comfort, the storm surge came inland close to Angleton,which is 16 miles from the gulf. I never forgot what we went thourgh. Fema doesn't come in right away. The first ones in after a hurricane are the National Guards. But from the day you go to a shelter, or stay at home until the day it comes through you are on your own. Which means you better be prepared. Have your food, your water, flashlights in place, blankets, everything you need to survive during and after. Yes, I like where I live, yes I know every year we may get hit with a hurricane (we are due for one, Carla was our big one and that was in 1961!) So every year I have our BO bags all ready to go.

 

Texmex

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Texmex, reading your post in alot of ways reminded me of how it was when Hurricane Andrew was bearing down on us here in South Florida...

 

I was also naieve back then about hurricanes, although I had been born in the south, I had been raised in the north and had only lived down here for a few years. Although I didn't flee Miami, I was one of countless thousands that was trying to buy preparations, i.e. food, gas, water. I don't think I will ever forget how people acted, it was appalling...no, I don't recall police being around much either, they were being swamped with preparation and evacutations of elderly and handicapped themselves. It was appalling how many people acted in just the grocery store alone...their murdurerous looks if you came too close to their grocery cart was disgusting....people pushing and shoving and the *me me me* attitude made me sick to my stomach. While not everyone was like that, enough were for me to realize that in dire conditions where people felt threatened, many would have no disregard for their fellow man.

 

Having gone through Andrew which was a category 5 storm, was one of the most scariest periods in my life. The devestation was beyond describable and as I watched MS and LA and TX being threatened with Katrina and Rita, it brought back many memories, and at least for me, I fully supported the media's attempt to get people evacuated and to safer ground.

 

We all know how unpredictable hurricanes are...they can appear to threaten land at very high winds, and end up slowing down...one just never knows. One of the biggest concerns I've always had is the construction of homes on the Gulf Coast. Down here in South Florida, our homes are mandated by code to be constructed by concrete block...the majority of people have plywood shutters or various types of commerical steel shutters that protect their windows and doors. Yes, for those that live close to the water (I'm only maybe a mile or two myself), the threat of a storm surge is very serious. That aside, (and I'm no engineer, but) I can't for the life of me understand how frame built homes are expected to stand up to 150mph PLUS winds, with higher gusts and spawned tornadoes. It's not just the winds that a house stands up to, but flying debree that is is constantly battering the house, and I'm not talking just pieces of paper either...windows suck in and out, doors blow, roofs fly off, etc etc etc.

 

The point is, while I watched those 2 hurricanes developing into strong storms in the gulf, I was scared for those that were in its path. Katrina, at the last minute, changed course and came right through where I live and it was only a Cat 1 at that time, but lemme tell you, I didn't put up any shutters (thinking we were gonna be missed) and that storm at 90mph scared me...I had started to forget I guess the reality of being in the middle of a hurricane. My son barely made it home from work as it was approaching, and the next morning I was shocked at the flooding and trees and power lines that had been leveled...and that was a minimum Cat 1.

 

You're right about FEMA, and it's about time people wake up and start taking care of themselves and their families. You're right about the National Guard, they marched up and down the street I lived after Andrew for weeks. In the end, I learned many valuable lessons, the biggest one being that old addage, you just don't fool with Mother Nature.

 

I guess these are just all personal decisions that we hafta make...I feel the Naitonal Hurricane Center and the media to some extent has a responsibility to alert people of the potential of a disaster like that. In the end, it's our own decision whether to stay or go, whether to be prepared or not, whether to wait to the last minute, or to prepare ahead. All I know is that I have a healthy respect for storms and if 24-48 hours it looks like it might be heading for me, I know exactly what needs to be done and I'm in a position where I can safely bunker down in my own home and survive for weeks or longer without any outside help. Most people are not in that position, which is what makes this whole thing so scary.

 

Thank you for sharing your experience though...as I read about the traffic jams it made my stomach queasy thinking about the position we could all find ourselves in if a disaster of any kind were imminent.

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