WHAT WOULD YOUR CRITERIA BE

[ndbeckner1]

IN watching this swine flu play out in the US and Mexico, at what point would you say "Okay, time to stay home and ride this out". How close would it have to get to you? For that matter any pandemic.

[debi]

Well, I live just north of San Antonio. Last night the State shut down one of the high schools in the next town as three of thier students apparentlly have come down with it.

Seriously considering all the angles and options. I have two boys still in high school. Not to sure if I'm sending them or not come tomorrow, we'll see how it all plays out this afternoon.

[CrabGrassAcres]

If I had kids in school, I'd set them down and talk about hygiene and avoiding germs. Boys tend to be really bad about this, though some girls aren't any better.

 

I went through school without catching much of anything. My daughter, OTOH, always brought stuff home to share with Mom.

 

Unfortunately it would be really hard to draw a line for something like flu that is highly contagious. Especially in our mobile society, things get spread really fast. People don't usually let you know that they aren't feeling well either. Most folks can't stay home unless they are really sick. This will also be a threat for many months and how many can stay home that long?

 

IMHO, it is best to learn habits that will keep you well than to have to worry about when to go into self imposed quarantine.

[Ambergris]

I mentioned on one of the other threads my son is going on a weeklong class trip starting tomorrow. I worry, of course, but he could also walk in front of a truck. I can't wrap him in bubble paper to keep him safe. He has agreed to take a bottle of hand sanitizer with him.

 

What scares me is that a planeload of people shared germs with 10 infected students all the way from Mexico to New Zealand. It's late fall down there. The perfect time to start a really nasty epidemic of influenza. Ladies, the poop may very possibly hit the propeller in four to six months.

[Jayceef]

About three to four years ago we had a meeting at work about pandemic situations and what we would do about them. Our supervisor at that time told us that we would be taking our temperature before we came to work and if we were sick would have to stay home. Now I do have about four months of time built up between sick and vacaton, but what if I get stuck at work and can't leave. I live about 44 miles from the city I work in and have four legged animals here that need to be taken care of. Just something I think about, I could always ask my MIL to come get them. The supervisor did say it wasn't if the pandemic would happen it is when it will happen. The only problem with my job is it is not an office job we can just walk off from. It would greatly be impacted by the pandemic and be a scary place to work if it hit there.

[Mt_Rider]

{sigh}

 

Of all the possible scenarios, this pandemic thang was NOT one of my 'favorites'.... Even when requested, I never did get around to posting a Without Warning scenario about it. Sorry folks. Would it have helped anyone be more ready?

 

With modern mobility [air travel, etc]....this one is already everywhere. There really isn't much of an issue of waiting for it to get close. Think about it. But as long as our modern methods of treating the dehydration, etc are not overrun by huge numbers, this *looks* to be still in a mild form. Were deaths in Mexico due to less availability to hospital care?

 

 

As for our plan: DH is a chiro. Sick people come to him. No, he can't give antibiotics or whatever. But his patients know that they can get other types of treatment that make them feel better while fighting a 'bug'. {chiropractic...it's not *just* for back pain..... } ANYway.....that part about sick people come to him....... We've talked about that. I'm mostly homebound. SIL and N can stay home. But.....somebody has to bring home the $$$$.

 

OTOH, he will know when things get serious. But he may not know until he's already been exposed. He has the facilities to stay down at his office. Not great facilities but doable. I wouldn't like that solution.....but....

 

We would need to pack a suitcase [clothing] or two [food, medical, etc]. In case he needs to spend some "quarantine time" down there. Then, if he doesn't come down with anything in a "given period of time", he can drive on up here and bunker down with the rest of us.

 

My 91 yr old friend was born in 1918 during the Great Pandemic. Her father kept going to his job but he slept in the barn. They set his meals outside for him to get them. They hollered news of her birth [at home, naturally] out the window to him. None of their whole family got that flu.

 

Mebbe a modern version of that is that the one going to work could live in the camper?

 

 

Anyone heard if the "incubation period" for this one has been discovered?

 

 

***I also agree with the basic hygiene practices plus get as healthy as we can.

 

MtRider [note-to-self: vitamins....take the vitamins....... ]

 

 

 

[Mother]

As of this morning they are still saying they have to have more info about this virus to know how fast it works. They are saying, however, that one does not have to have symptoms to have and be able to spread the flu.

 

By the way, it is much worse according to the news reports. It is spreading fast all over the world and in the United States. Google map shows it is in Indiana now. That's getting pretty close for comfort here but like Mt_R says, people still have to bring home the $$$$ Our son lives in a travel trailer here with us but has to use our facilities. Time to get his working for sure. We also have our GS here at least two times a week while his mom works (we home school him those two days). His father works on a farm and would have to continue to go back and forth. That would be another source of exposure.

 

If it were just us we'd start now with the isolation as we could do so for a long time if needed. Our age and my health means we would have a problem trying to keep up with a big garden on our own (we garden together with my brother on our property) but we could and would do it if needed.

 

And folks, it is beginning to look more and more like it might be. Like Mt_Rider, this is NOT my favorite scenario. It would have been more fun if this WAS one of her Without Warning Scenes. Remember though,,,,,you DO have a warning on this one.

 

[fostermomma]

Well I have to admit I am starting to get very uneasy about this. We are in southern Indiana but, it is way to close for comfort. We have done very little to prepare for this out side of just trying to stock up on the every day items.

 

My big concern is that our youngest daughter has special medical needs particulary invoving her respitory system. She will not be leaving the house until this is over. I am already tempted to pull the kids out of school but, I still have to send our foster daughter. So all of us will be exposed to everything anyway. I am considering not letting the other children near youngest dd. We have therapist and such coming in four days a week to work with some of the kids. When they are here I am going to keep her in a seperate room and then disinfect the room the therapist use each time they use it.

 

I am going to make a supply run today. I have started working on a shopping list but, I still need to double check it.

[westbrook]

I am carrying lysol spray with me to spray shopping carts, going to start wearing cotton gloves when shopping.... (see 'preparing for flu' in the flu section) just as well since I am doing 1950's -1960's clothing for summer attire!

 

hats, gloves, summer dresses, heels! ROFL!!!

 

when will I quarantine myself? when everywhere I turn there is someone ill! cause they won't stay home!!!!!

 

Right now, it isn't in my area... though several people at the college are sick and still come to class.

 

I sort of would like to get it and get my bodies immunity built up.

 

 

[Jingles]

As of tomorrow afternoon my family is going to be self-contained for the near future. I would say NOW is my criteria, but we have a specialist apt. for the kids tomorrow and we can't get out of it. (We got snowed in last time we were supposed to go and had to cancel). After that dreaded trip we are staying home from everything. DH will work if he gets work and will not be aloud to touch anything in the house until he washes and will be taking his lunch so he isn't around food makers who may be sick. He is in construction so he is outside most of the time and doesn't have a lot of contact with a lot of public. If he does get sick he will be quarantined in a room by himself separate from the house and he will be fed and tended to with me in special coverings and a mask and gloves and I will put all those clothes into the wash and wash up and change into clean clothes each time I see him. I was given a swine flu vaccine in the 70's when my dad was in the navy so I "May" be OK or so they say. We'll see. Yep Now is my limit. I already contacted my home school group that I teach at and gave them my sorries.

[TurtleMama]

I'm glad this thread was started, because I was going to start one with the same question. I just came over from our dear friend Drumrunner's site, and he has a great Family Pandemic Reaction Plan page highlighted for everyone who comes along. On it are "triggers" for each stage of the pandemic, and it really made me start wondering when we should think about seriously hunkering down. If anyone wants to take a look at it, here it is:

 

http://www.drum-runners.com/Comment.html

 

Jingles, looks like you're about on track according to him.

 

 

[ANewMe]

{sigh}

 

Of all the possible scenarios, this pandemic thang was NOT one of my 'favorites'.... Even when requested, I never did get around to posting a Without Warning scenario about it. Sorry folks. Would it have helped anyone be more ready?

 

With modern mobility [air travel, etc]....this one is already everywhere. There really isn't much of an issue of waiting for it to get close. Think about it. But as long as our modern methods of treating the dehydration, etc are not overrun by huge numbers, this *looks* to be still in a mild form. Were deaths in Mexico due to less availability to hospital care?

 

 

As for our plan: DH is a chiro. Sick people come to him. No, he can't give antibiotics or whatever. But his patients know that they can get other types of treatment that make them feel better while fighting a 'bug'. {chiropractic...it's not *just* for back pain..... } ANYway.....that part about sick people come to him....... We've talked about that. I'm mostly homebound. SIL and N can stay home. But.....somebody has to bring home the $$$$.

 

OTOH, he will know when things get serious. But he may not know until he's already been exposed. He has the facilities to stay down at his office. Not great facilities but doable. I wouldn't like that solution.....but....

 

We would need to pack a suitcase [clothing] or two [food, medical, etc]. In case he needs to spend some "quarantine time" down there. Then, if he doesn't come down with anything in a "given period of time", he can drive on up here and bunker down with the rest of us.

 

My 91 yr old friend was born in 1918 during the Great Pandemic. Her father kept going to his job but he slept in the barn. They set his meals outside for him to get them. They hollered news of her birth [at home, naturally] out the window to him. None of their whole family got that flu.

 

Mebbe a modern version of that is that the one going to work could live in the camper?

 

 

Anyone heard if the "incubation period" for this one has been discovered?

 

 

***I also agree with the basic hygiene practices plus get as healthy as we can.

 

MtRider [note-to-self: vitamins....take the vitamins....... ]

 

 

I heard on the other board that you are contagious for 2 days before you show symptoms and up to 9 days after.

Something else to think about a lady went to be swabbed for it and they said it would take 6 days to get results. That tells you alot about what we could be facing.

 

[quiltys41]

Ours starts this week-end and will last until we see a lessening of the flu. Then we will get out and about to lay in supplies for the fall and winter and try to stay in as much as possible during this fall flu season.

 

Q

[Dee62]

In the UK so far no one is really even talking about this Flu..those that are, are not taking it even remotely seriously which I find frightening.

The government are sending home leaflets and starting to put out ads on TV from today so will see if this makes a difference to peoples attitudes.

 

My boys are still at school so far but will be watching closely for the latest news,one leaves soon,another is soon to be off for health reasons so really its only my youngest who will still be going for the time being.

He will be pulled as soon as we start to get any cases of a more severe nature,we are at this time being told noone has become really ill yet over here but starting to get a bit cynical about that as some of the earlier cases are still in hospital.

[Michelle_3kds]

We only have about a month or so of school left, 2 of my kids have asthma and despite eating well, getting allergy shots and using inhalers and preventive meds, they still get extremely sick whenever they catch anything...and they catch everything. They are still fighting a cold they've had for 3 weeks, started out viral turned bacterial...the usual for them. If this flu comes to our area, they are out of school, all the kids. If one kid brings it home, we'll all get it. No amount of hand sanitizer will prevent this when kids are in such close contact. Where I work the usual rule for Droplet precautions is wear a mask if within 3 feet of the patient, now it's 6 feet. How close do you think the desks are at school?

 

 

[drumrunner]

I'm glad this thread was started, because I was going to start one with the same question. I just came over from our dear friend Drumrunner's site, and he has a great Family Pandemic Reaction Plan page highlighted for everyone who comes along. On it are "triggers" for each stage of the pandemic, and it really made me start wondering when we should think about seriously hunkering down. If anyone wants to take a look at it, here it is:

 

http://www.drum-runners.com/Comment.html

 

Jingles, looks like you're about on track according to him.

 

 

Good morning (5am here) and I'm on my second cup of coffee. Yesterday was interesting as WHO bumped the warning level to 5, just a couple of days after it was escalated to 4. I called my 'short list' of people I wanted to notify and some coworkers; a few responses from them dumbfounded me to say the least. Their "So what?" responses brought home to me the willful ignorance that many people still have regarding preparing for a pandemic or any disaster. I do not have the time now to argue or convince them of what a world-wide pandemic means, the impact it will have on them and their families, nor the fact that there is little time left to do something, ANYTHING, to get ready.

 

My plans and preparations are complete, and it is worth remembering a few things:

1.) Pandemics come in waves, this is the first wave. I expect Wave One to last between 12 to 18 weeks with a rapid spread and high infection rate along with more deaths. It will probably drop off the front page news for awhile since nothing immediate is happening. After all, a pandemic is a slow moving event and there are other more interesting events that the news media folks can gorge on. Wave Two will be much more interesting since the virus will already be 'seeded' in the population. In the past pandemics, Wave Two has been the most lethal after a lull between Wave One.

2.) CFR (Case Fatality Rates), it seems that until there are mass casualties to report, business goes on as usual per the news media. I crunched (and liberally rounded) a few numbers that may or may not be valid, but is the driving force for my personal pandemic preparedness efforts. The influenza pandemic of 1918 killed some 700,000 Americans, and somewhere between 40 to 100 million people world wide out of a 1918 world population of roughly 1.7 billion people. Sme statistics put the CFR at around 2 percent. Therefore 98 percent did NOT die. Fast forward a few decades, but leaving the 2 percent CFR alone for a moment. The worl pouplation is now roughly 6x greather than 1918. Yes, we have vaccines that can be manufatured eventually and Tamiflu drugs that can be taken, granted that these were not available during the 1918 pandemic. So on to my number crunching. US population is over 300,000,000 and I took the same 2 percent CFR and came up with potentially 6 million Americans dead.

3.) So even if this pandemic turns out to be 'mild', with only 2 percent dead, I doubt it will be much comfort to a mom or dad whose child is in that 2 percent CFR. I have taken three phone calls so far from parents who asked me whether they should be taking their kids out of school or not. My answer to them was; as a parent, do what you think you must do to move your child from the potential 2 CFR percent group to the 98 percent survival group. And there is probably a second wave coming after this one.

4.) In case it has escaped anyone's attention, we are at Level 5, a pandemic is imminent. WHO has only one bullet left to shoot, Level 6. I have come to the sad conclusion that I must begin dividing humanity into 2 groups, the living and the dead.

[OINK]

well, I know I'm sorta new here, and not well known, but I am very fond of this site and the members already, so I hope ALL of us here are in the " living" group!

[Mother]

Drumrunner, thank you for the insight into the possibilities we face. Because this is so mild here in the United States as of yet it is easy to think only in the immediate terms but even the pandemic.gov site tells us that it will come in waves. It is extremely important to realize that there is more to come.

 

We argue over the possibility of this flu being manufactured and orchestrated but that has no bearing on the possibile severity of its affect on us all. You bring that reality home. We can argue and conjecture all we want but it doesn't change the fact that we can be in that 2% or in that 98%. It is up to us to be prepared either way. The better prepared we are, the more precautions we take, the better our chances of being in that 98% become.

 

Thank you for sharing your views with us.

[vigilant20]

They started shutting down schools here. The office building I'm in has almost 2K of my co-workers in it, with that density I think there's a better than average chance of us being sent home. My work computer is a laptop and I'm set up to work from home if necessary, so I'll start taking that home every night. I'm set to hunker down at home if need be. Although I'm going to pick up a few extra things like oscillococinum today just to make myself feel a little better about things.

[sassenach]

Thanks Drumrunner for your insights and calculations. Yes, wanting to be in the 98% group is the important thing. My son flies to Germany for six weeks so I hope he will be allright.Its a work trip. He is in the age group where the most deaths are occuring in Mexico. I believe most of the folks ill in the US so far ( and in NYC there are a couple hundred students now ill, just not confirmed so to speak, but all students), flu symptoms, hence the schools are closing to be sanitized and to make everyone stay home. I live hours from the City, and we get Canadians and US tourists here as the warmer weather comes. I have to go shopping on May 7 in a larger city for my monthly shopping, but will have my masks and will get some wipes or if I can find it a small can of lysol spray for the basket. I have masks coming and a few at home at this point.

I think its better to take what precautions we can. I know some friends who go to NYC quite alot during the year, but its starting to spread, and I hope the folks here will be serious about making decisions and taking action. I sympathize with all the other parents out there who worry about their kids and families, especially the more sensitive kids. ( My son has had pneumonia twice as an adult already and hes going on 29, so I do worry he may get ill. I just hope he is in the states if it happens so I can at least trust that the hospital care would be adequate, Germany is second choice, because they are a fine country and up to date on such things too. But thats only for some weeks.

 

This stuff will continue to spread, because people are lackadaisical --- even though DS assured me he would do what he could to prevent getting it, but seeing others so easily discard caution is a big red flag.

 

2% being up to 6 Million is alot of people! Far more than the avg flu deaths per year. Here in the US, as drumrunner points out!

 

[Mt_Rider]

I second Mother's sentiments.

 

Viruses are odd. They behave in the way that they behave. This version MAY burn itself out. Fine. Like hurricane preparation, there is always another one coming at some point. If this turns out to be 'dress rehearsal', so be it.

 

But if this virus takes a nasty turn, Drumrunner's numbers show in a very simple way, why even merely 2% would mean an awful lot of people. Even just *ONE* within our own loved ones is a big number.

 

Do keep stepping back to get the big picture now and again. Too much media consumption can get one's thots muddled up. It IS time to conserve energy for those activities that are productive. If you find yourself spinning around in circles [physically or mentally] STOP....get your head together in whatever way you have found works for you....and then set out a plan of action.

 

 

We're gonna be pulling in within the next few days. Except DH....which is the problem. Chiropractors cannot bring in an income from a laptop at home...unfortunately. I have been pleased to hear that some of my friends [not usually MrsS types] are getting ready to do this laptop thing. We'll be making that hard choice as we go along. I really can't figure out a reasonable "trigger point" to set for DH to close the office [only real source of income] or for DH to stay at the office and not come home. But I'm sure thinking and pondering about it!

 

 

MtRider [no easy answers....]

[sassenach]

Well, it is now within 90 miles of where I live:

 

Published April 30, 2009 10:38 am - Suspected cases are also reported in Albany, Schenectady and Lewis counties.

 

Central NY district closes in flu scare

 

 

 

FABIUS, N.Y. (AP) — A central New York school district is closing for two days as a precaution after preliminary testing showed a female student had contracted swine flu.

 

Fabius-Pompey Wuperintendent Tim Ryan says all sports and other activities also have been canceled through Friday. The rural district 10 miles south of Syracuse has 860 students in two buildings.

 

State health officials said Wednesday the Fabius-Pompey High School student got sick after traveling to Mexico. State officials say they are awaiting final confirmation on their preliminary tests from the federal Centers for Disease Control.

 

Local health officials say the student did not need hospitalization and is recovering.

 

North Country Public Radio reports that health officials suspect four people in Lewis County have contracted swine flu. None are seriously ill.

 

The Albany Times-Union reports suspected cases in Albany and Schenectady counties.

 

 

 

 

Sooooooo...... rethinking things fast here!

[TurtleMama]

Drumrunner, thank you so much for the information and for all of the effort that you put into your website. I don't know how you even have the time to come over here to Mrs. S. and talk to us personally!

 

I am definitely starting to take precautions and will go shopping with your "last minute" list this weekend.

 

God bless and take care...

[westbrook]

2 cases 40 miles from me.

 

I am not really concerned.. booked a flight in June! dang.. maybe I should have waited when no one was flying and I could have gotten a cheaper ticket!!!

 

"hello, I would like to book a flight"

 

"the price is $200?"

 

"um no, how about $49!"

 

"anyone else flying?"

 

"oh and do you provide masks or do I need to bring my own?"

 

 

I have two trains of thought on this flu..

 

first is to avoid this at all costs and second to get exposed to build an immunity.

 

With the 100+ cases today in America only 1 has died. With precautions... keeping hands out of mouth, nose and eyes, keeping hands washed or slathered in GermX (I don't like purell.. personal preference), I am not really concerned...yet.

 

When 30% of the population gets this flu, I will stand up and pay attention!.... perhaps even close the gates at the bottom of my driveway... and spray my husband with lysol before letting him in the house! here dear, turn around.. not so fast! I haven't gotten all of that side spayed yet!

 

I am interested in how so many people all over the world got this so quickly.

 

[drumrunner]

With the 100+ cases today in America only 1 has died.

 

Hmmm.....lemme do a little math here. 100 cases @ 1 dead = 1 percent CFR, right? Still a lot less than H5N1 avian flu which is running around 60 percent (yeah, it has NOT gone away). Won't it be interesting when highly transmissible H1N1 swine flu meets & greets the highly lethal H5N1 bird flu? Their 'offspring' may be a virus that may make humanity really uncomfortable.