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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/20...-flu-media-hype

 

Swine flu: it's worse than you thinkWriting off swine flu as a 'mild cold' overhyped by a hysterical media blinds people to its potentially serious consequences

 

Anne Wollenberg guardian.co.uk, Monday 13 July 2009 10.30 BST Article history"Isn't this swine flu a bit overhyped?" asks one Cif poster – even as the pandemic reaches Downing Street. "Maybe we should re-name it media-flu," says another. Then there's the suggestion that anyone who comes down with it should "take some paracetamol, have a day on the sofa then get over yourself and get on with it". Over on the Daily Mail website, posters are equally unconvinced. "If people not [sic] cope with something as simple as catching what is nothing more than a heavy cold and feeling under the weather for a couple of days what hope do we have?" asks one.

 

To which I say: try having it. I've got swine flu, and I've never felt so ill in my life, not even when I was hospitalised with viral meningitis a few years ago. Swine flu has been pretty similar to that, and nothing like having a normal cold. On Friday, when the virus hit, my partner came home to find me shivering, sweating, coughing and unable to stand any light whatsoever. My hands went numb and it later transpired that my meninges (the membranes covering the brain and spinal cord) were inflamed.

 

So began the mildly Kafkaesque process of trying to figure out how to obtain medical help. "Do not go into your GP surgery, or to a hospital," said the NHS swine flu Q&A, which provided a link to a symptom checker, which said to call 999. What, so I could be driven to a hospital, but couldn't go inside it?

 

We did go to hospital, where they were terribly nice but made me wear a face mask – it turns out you can't actually breathe through them. Once they'd ruled out meningitis, I got a prescription for Tamiflu and a cocktail of painkillers, but when my partner tried to get it fulfilled, he discovered it's not so easy to find a chemist with Tamiflu in stock, even in London, and it can't be on the same prescription as any other drugs. "You can have the Tamiflu or the painkillers," they told him. "Choose one." Back to the hospital that we were never supposed to have visited in the first place, then.

 

I've clearly recovered enough to be able to type, although I still can't get to the bathroom unaided and I'm sitting here in a pool of my own sweat (my poor partner keeps changing the sheets, but it's a losing battle). I'm delighted for anyone who's shaken off swine flu quickly and easily, such as Harry Potter star Rupert Grint, but that's not going to be the case for everyone. Writing off justified concerns about the disease and its spread as media hype will not help anybody

 

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11...calls-calm.html

NHS helplines swamped as swine flu panic rises after death of six-year-old girl

 

Swine flu helplines are being flooded with calls as panic over the deadly virus rises, it was revealed today.

Staff at NHS Direct have fielded more than 52,000 calls in the last week compared to a total of 190,000 since April.

Many of the callers are not thought to be ill but are scared because apparently healthy people have now started dying from the virus.

The rise in calls is despite health chiefs insisting there is no need to panic and trying to reassure people that measures to contain swine flu are in place.

Public fears have increased after yesterday's announcement that a healthy child and a GP with no known underlying problems have died from the virus.

The deaths of Chloe Buckley, six, and Dr Michael Day mean three people with no previous health problems have now died of the illness out of a total of 17 deaths across Britain.

 

Chloe's parents described her as their 'fun-loving baby girl' today as they spoke of their distress for the first time.

Health Secretary Andy Burnham said it was a 'tragedy' today but insisted people must not worry too much.

 

'There have been lots of children already having the condition but making a very quick and full recovery. We do have to keep it in perspective,' he said.

Britain was at the 'front of the queue' for the swine flu vaccine and the first should arrive here next month, the minister added.

'We could not be in a better position. So as soon as stocks are made, the very first vaccines will come to this country. We expect to get the first next month.'

Enough vaccine for the whole population has been ordered and half of all doses are expected to arrive by the end of the year.

 

A list has been drawn up of people who will get the first injections, including health workers and patients with conditions like diabetes and asthma.

Scientists fear a unique strain of the virus has already developed in London due to the sheer number of infections.

This could mutate into an even more virulent version which could prove more dangerous and faster-spreading.

 

However, experts are currently adamant swine flu is no more contagious than the normal seasonal flu and will prove mild for most who catch it.

Chris Spencer, director of education for Hillingdon Borough Council, speaks to reporters outside St Catherine's Catholic School which Chloe attended

'The vast majority of people will recover quickly by taking paracetamol or ibuprofen, and drinking plenty of fluids,' said Dr Laurence Buckman, chairman of the BMA's GP committee.

'We must remember that every year there are deaths from complications of seasonal flu; this is unfortunately inevitable with any strain of influenza.'

But the reassurances are falling on increasingly deaf ears as the death toll continues to rise.

A NHS Direct source told London's Evening Standard: 'Every day for the last week, more than half of all calls to NHS Direct have been in relation to swine flu and that is a huge increase from the start.

 

'It is to do with the deaths. When you read something about someone dying, people have more pressing questions. But the number of referrals to GPs have stayed pretty much the same so it shows people are simply more worried rather than ill.'

People are now being urged to use 'other channels' to release some of the pressure on the service, a spokesman added.

Schoolgirl Chloe died within 48 hours of complaining of a sore throat and just a day before her seventh birthday.

 

She was not given the anti-viral drug Tamiflu but her parents today insisted she had been treated appropriately.

 

Michael and Jacinta Buckley said in a statement: 'We are obviously very distressed at the loss of our fun-loving baby girl. Nothing can replace her in our lives.'

They added: 'We are satisfied that the medical care Chloe received at all times was appropriate.

 

It was also announced yesterday that Dr Day, a 64-year-old GP who had been treating swine flu victims, died after contracting the virus.

Both the little girl and the doctor are believed to have been perfectly healthy before succumbing to swine flu.

Dr Michael Day died at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital on Saturday

 

Further tests are being carried out today to pinpoint an exact cause of death for Chloe and Dr Day.

 

The six-year-old, from West Drayton, West London, became ill on Wednesday and died on Thursday night.

 

Dr Day, a GP from Dunstable, Bedfordshire, died on Saturday in the Luton and Dunstable Hospital. He is also understood to have been healthy.

 

'Doctors have always accepted that there are risks associated with their job,' Dr Buckman said. 'Obviously these are smaller than they used to be with the advent of modern medicine, but they can never be eliminated altogether.

 

'It is understandable that people will be worried when they hear that a GP has died but we urge them to follow the recommended advice and contact their family doctor, rather than physically going to the surgery if they have symptoms.

 

'While these individual deaths are tragedies for the families concerned, it is very important that members of the public do not panic.'

Last Friday, the NHS announced the first case of a healthy person to have died of swine flu. All other deaths involved patients with underlying health problems.

The man, from Essex, who has not been named, fought for nine days before losing his battle against the virus.

 

Swine flu is continuing its march across the country, with London authorities expected to declare an official epidemic within the next few days.

An epidemic is declared when more than 200 people in 100,000 report symptoms to their GPs.

Last Wednesday the London figure was 180, and officials believe it is almost certain to exceed the 200 mark this week.

Last night experts said the virus was spreading so quickly that an epidemic was already under way in the capital.

Professor Hugh Pennington, bacteriologist at Aberdeen University, said there was 'no doubt' that that figure will already have been exceeded.

 

Enlarge Dr Maureen Baker of the Royal College of GPs said NHS bosses could consider cancelling non-urgent operations, while GP surgeries may cancel regular tests they conduct on those with long-term health conditions.

The West Midlands is the second-worst affected area, with 140 people per 100,000 reporting symptoms.

Yesterday, scientists writing for the journal Nature said swine flu was closely related to strains responsible for the 1918 pandemic which killed up to 100 million worldwide.

It penetrates deeper into the lungs and can cause more damage than normal flu - explaining why it can kill otherwise healthy people.

Nearly 10,000 Britons have been confirmed with swine flu after it spread to the UK from Mexico. However, hundreds of thousands more in the UK are thought to have the virus.

 

Professor Steve Field, chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said: 'We have been working with the Government on robust flu pandemic plans for a number of years and we are confident that the systems we have in place will cope well with the current pandemic.'

Estimates suggest GPs are dealing with 8,000 new cases of swine flu every week. Professor Nigel Dimmock, a virologist at Warwick University, claimed half the population could come down with flu this year.

His worst case scenario suggested as many as 150,000 could die.

'The percentage of people killed who contract the virus is believed to be around 0.5 per cent,' he said.

'If half the population catch swine flu then that could mean 30 million times that percentage as a number of deaths - it's an awful lot of people.'

Health secretary Andy Burnham has moved the country on to treatment mode. This means those with flu symptoms will be asked to quarantine themselves at home and get a friend to pick up anti-viral drugs for them.

 

Six-year-old Chloe was perfectly healthy'Just a few days ago Chloe Buckley was excitedly preparing to celebrate her seventh birthday with her school friends.

Healthy and happy and from a loving family, the little girl didn't have a care in the world.

But within the space of 48 hours, she developed a severe sore throat, became desperately ill and then, tragically, became the latest victim to die of swine flu.

Chloe died on Thursday, just a day before what is believed would have been her seventh birthday.

 

She is thought to have no underlying health issues. Her devout Roman Catholic parents, Jacinta, a child minder, and Michael, a plumber, have been left to try to make sense of what has happened along with her two older brothers, Shane, 12, and ten year-old Dillon.

 

The family lives in West Drayton, West London.

The speed at which the virus took hold and destroyed Chloe's immune system has left all those who knew her in shock - and fearful of who may be struck down next.

 

Chris Spencer, the director of Education and Children's Services at Hillingdon Council, said yesterday: 'It was an exceptional set of circumstances.

'This was a little girl who until a few days ago was perfectly healthy. Everybody here is in a state of shock.'

One neighbour, who did not wish to be named, said: 'She was always playing with my daughter who is nine. On Monday after school she was just running around. She said she was having a summer fete at her school, and gave us a leaflet.

'That was the last time we saw her. She was looking fine, handing out leaflets.

'She was always playing in the close, happy and smiling.

 

'She was a very healthy girl. We are really shocked. I was crying when I heard she had died.'

This time last week Chloe was fit and well having recently enjoyed her brother Shane's confirmation party.

But it was on Wednesday that nursery nurse Mrs Buckley, 37, decided to take her youngest child to the doctor after she developed a fever.

Presumably comforted with the diagnosis of tonsillitis, she took her daughter home and put her to bed to recover.

Chloe's family home in West Drayton, London, where she lived with her two brothers, mother and father

But by Thursday morning her condition had become so alarming that accompanied by Chloe's father Michael, 40, she took her to the nearby Hillingdon Hospital.

 

Chloe was transferred for emergency treatment to St Mary's Hospital in Paddington but died that night.

Yesterday a family friend was answering the door at the Buckleys' home. At St Catherine's Roman Catholic Primary School, where Chloe was a year two pupil, headmistress Sara Benn was battling to stem a rising sense of panic among parents and children.

The school, which has 240 pupils between the ages of three and 11, has been closed early for the summer holidays following the tragedy.

Miss Benn paid tribute to Chloe, saying the little girl was a 'bright and tenacious student with a keen interest in sports'.

'She will be missed by her fellow pupils and teachers at the school.'

She sent a letter to all parents at the school on Friday telling them of the death.

The letter carried a black and white photo of Chloe. But it did not mention that swine flu might be the cause.

Daphne May, 62, whose granddaughter attends the school, said there had been an air of panic at a meeting held for parents yesterday.

She said: 'People are very worried and upset. We should have been told something sooner. The school knew Chloe was very ill last week, we should have been told then.'

She added: 'It's so scary, we are very concerned, parents are obviously worried for their children.'

 

Did GP get the virus from a patient? Microscopic image which shows the H1N1 flu virus, highlighted in red. The virus has a greater ability to infect the lungs than common seasonal flu viruses

A swab taken after his death found he had the H1N1 virus, although the exact cause of his death has not been revealed.

 

Health officials last night refused to say whether he had any underlying health problems. Dr Day had been treating swine flu victims.

Friends and neighbours spoke of their shock at the sudden death of the GP, who had worked at the same surgery for 35 years.

Graham Blower, the chairman of Leighton Buzzard Rugby Club in Bedfordshire, where Dr Day was team doctor, said there had been 'no signs' of him being seriously ill.

'All I heard was that he had a bit of a cold before he went into hospital,' he said.

Mr Blower added that the GP was a 'larger than life personality'.

'On one occasion I remember him turning up at the pub wearing a rucksack full of bricks on his back so that he could get fit for canoeing,' he said. 'He always struck me as a very fit chap.'

A neighbour in Stanbridge, near Leighton Buzzard, described the keen sailor as a 'wonderful, kind, and generous man'.

 

The woman, who asked not to be named, said: 'He's lived in the village for more than 30 years. His family have grown up here. He had three daughters and a son and was a proper family man.

'I would described him as an eccentric character with a brilliant mind who could turn his hand to anything. He was always building things and carrying out experiments.'

Dr Day, who had grandchildren, qualified as a doctor in 1970 and worked at Priory Gardens Health Centre in Dunstable from 1974, becoming senior partner for 20 years.

He retired in March this year but returned on a part-time basis last month.

 

On a medical practitioner's website he described himself as an 'experienced patient-oriented GP'.

His wife Judith, 66, whom he married in 1966, was unavailable to comment at the family home yesterday. A woman who answered the door and identified herself as one of his daughters said the family was too upset to talk.

Dr Paul Hassan, senior partner at the health centre, described his colleague's death as 'tragic'.

'We are completely devastated,' he said. 'Dr Day was a work colleague and also a personal friend to everyone at the practice.'

 

NHS Bedfordshire, the Health Protection Agency and NHS East of England have agreed the practice will remain open.

Anyone who recently came into contact with Dr Day will be clinically assessed to determine whether they are showing symptoms of the virus and be given courses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu if necessary.

An NHS East of England spokesman said: 'The exact cause of death in this case is still unknown and the case has been reported to the coroner who will investigate it

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11...0LFNRGMT5&D

 

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/1...ne-flu-virus-uk

 

Swine flu: health experts 'surprised' by spread of virus in the UK

 

• Scientists were 'caught napping' by outbreak, says flu expert

• Under 30s at greatest risk from pandemic

 

One of the world's most respected influenza scientists said today that health officials had been surprised by the spread of swine flu.

 

Dr Alan Hay, director of the London-based World Influenza Centre, said the extensive summer outbreak in Britain had not followed expected patterns and warned the Department of Health needed to be prepared for a more deadly form of the disease.

 

"We have been a little surprised by the degree of spread of this virus. A few weeks ago we anticipated that this was going to be a short series of outbreaks that would probably peter out before reappearing in the autumn or winter and that has proved not to be the case."

 

Hay added:

 

• Some of the background health concerns noted against flu deaths would not have been fatal, noting an American case where the underlying cause was obesity

 

• The flu surveillance community had been "caught napping" by the emergence of the swine flu outbreak as most resources were concentrated on guarding against a bird flu pandemic

 

• He was concerned about the emergence since 2007 of drug-resistant flu, which could impact on the pandemic virus.

 

Seventeen people in the UK have died after contracting swine flu and 335 people have been treated in hospital after contracting the virus. But tens of thousands are visiting GPs with flu-like symptoms every week, according to the Health Protection Agency. The latest deaths were of a six-year-old girl from north-west London and a GP from Bedfordshire.

 

Hay, who advises the World Health Organisation on its flu policy, said it had become clear the flu pandemic was predominantly affecting children aged five to 14, with the majority of cases nationally and internationally affecting people under 30. Those born before the 1957 flu pandemic appeared to be particularly resistant to the outbreak, indicating they carried some residual immunity.

 

Hay said the current outbreak would probably continue for another "week or two" before re-emerging in the autumn and early winter. However, the high level of sufferers now could mean that an autumn outbreak would be less severe.

 

"We are already experiencing this extensive outbreak of the flu at the present time. The people who are being affected will have reasonable immunity against the virus if it reappears during the winter season, which we anticipate. That will lessen the impact subsequently [on health services]," he said.

 

"So forecasting what will happen is rather difficult but what the Department of Health has to be prepared for is for there to be significant demand on health services resources."

 

Of particular concern was that the virus, which has caused only mild illness in most cases, could become more deadly.

 

"The concern is that the situation might change, the virus may become more virulent," Hay said. "The proportion of severe infections might increase. And fatalities might increase. We have been monitoring this quite intensively in the labs all around the world and have been seeing some minor changes in the viruses."

 

Hay said there had been a small number of cases of resistance to antiviral drugs but no sustained emergence of resistance.

 

"We're not totally sure what to expect. Because on the one hand, prior to a year ago, really the anticipation was for very low levels of drug resistance, and then we had the experience in late 2007 with the emergence of drug resistance of seasonal H1N1. And those emerged to become the predominant seasonal virus that has circulated recently. That was really an unanticipated event. We don't know what the implications of that are in the emergence of this novel virus. It is a concern."

 

Hay concurred that most people who had died from the outbreak had underlying health problems, but said that those may not have been life-threatening.

 

"Would they have died anyway? I think the answer to that is probably no," said Hay. "Those who have underlying conditions included one that was identified in the US was obesity. So these people were not going to die of obesity in the next month or two I suspect. Some people may have been in a more critical condition."

 

Flu surveillance scientists, who had been concentrating resources on looking for a bird flu pandemic, had been surprised by the swine flu outbreak, he added.

 

"We were not anticipating a virus of this nature causing a pandemic. All our eyes were focusing on the H5N1 virus that had been circulating in wild and domestic poultry populations.

 

"We have been observing similar viruses to this pandemic in pigs in the past 10 years in the US. And because it was antigenically related to the viruses already circulating – it was the same H1N1 subtype – it was not perceived as being a major threat. Of course we were caught napping, you might say, but this is what has transpired.

 

"We don't really know the way this virus might change as it adapts to the human population and what the consequences of such changes might be."

 

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/...053710520090711

 

<<<Tamiflu brand name. "What this suggests is that there can be severe complications associated with this virus infection, especially in severely obese patients," said CDC virus expert Dr. Tim Uyeki.

 

"And five of these patients had ... evidence of blood clots in the lungs. This has not been previously known to occur in patients with severe influenza virus infections," Uyeki said in a telephone interview.

 

Dr. Lena Napolitano of the University of Michigan Medical Center and colleagues studied the cases of 10 patients admitted to the university's intensive care unit with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by infection with H1N1.

 

"Of the 10 patients, nine were obese (body mass index more than 30), including seven who were extremely obese (BMI more than 40)," they wrote in their report.

 

Their study was not designed to see if obesity or anything else poses a special risk factor for flu. But the researchers were surprised to see that seven of the 10 patients were extremely obese.>>

 

The above is a snippet from an longer article. The article hints, but does not say, that obese people may need a higher dose of the medicines used to treat this flu. It mentions doubling the dosage of one medication.

 

 

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/i...=22&sp=true

 

 

H1N1 pandemic spreading too fast to count: WHO

Thu Jul 16, 2009 1:13pm EDT

 

GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday that the H1N1 flu pandemic was the fastest-moving pandemic ever and that it was now pointless to count every case.

 

The United Nations agency, which declared an influenza pandemic on June 11, revised its requirements so that national health authorities need only report clusters of severe cases or deaths caused by the new virus or unusual clinical patterns.

 

"The 2009 influenza pandemic has spread internationally with unprecedented speed. In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks," it said in a statement on the new strain, commonly known as swine flu.

 

It has become nearly impossible for health authorities and laboratories to keep count of individual cases -- which have mostly been mild -- as the virus spreads, according to the 193 member-state agency.

 

The new flu strain can be treated by antivirals such as Roche Holding's Tamiflu or GlaxoSmithKline's Relenza, but many patients recover without medical treatment.

 

Flu experts say at least a million people are infected in the United States alone, and the WHO says the pandemic is unstoppable.

 

"It is very much agreed that trying to register and report every single case is a huge waste of resources," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said.

 

Such tracking has limited authorities' capacity to investigate serious cases and is no longer essential to monitor the level or nature of the risk posed by the virus, WHO said.

 

However, all countries should still closely monitor unusual clusters of severe or fatal infections from the pandemic virus, clusters of respiratory illness requiring hospitalization or unexplained or unusual clinical patterns.

 

"Signals to be vigilant for include spikes in rates of absenteeism from schools or workplaces, or a more severe disease pattern, as suggested by, for example, a surge in emergency department visits," it said.

 

Britain reported on Thursday that 29 people had died to date after contracting the virus. Health Minister Andy Burnham said this month the government was projecting more than 100,000 new cases a day of the flu in the country by the end of August.

 

The WHO will no longer issue global tables showing the numbers of confirmed cases for all countries -- which stood at 94,512 cases with 429 deaths as of its last update on July 6.

 

Instead, it will issue regular updates on the situation in newly affected countries, which should report the first confirmed cases, weekly figures and epidemiological details.

 

Countries should still test a limited number of virus samples weekly to confirm that disease is actually due to the pandemic virus and to monitor any virological changes that may be important for the development of vaccines, it said.

 

At least 50 governments have placed orders for vaccines against the new H1N1 strain or negotiating with drug makers, WHO vaccine chief Marie-Paule Kieny told Reuters.

 

The WHO does not report figures for cases of seasonal influenza, which it says is linked to 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year globally.

 

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If the UK is estimating 100,000 new cases per day by the end of August , then those of us in the US also will shortly be getting to that point, most likely. We need to be vigilant, some of our own members have already been sick with it.

 

I noted that a certain young man who is employed at our mha here and is a driver for the consumers, is often sick, usually respiratory. His diet is that of a bachelor, tv dinners and daily quart of sugary ice tea he buys every morning, so the sugar is probably making his immune response less than it would be with a good diet and not much sugar. I think because he tends to have to travel most days of the week, is very social among family and friends and meeting others when he goes boating and fishing on the Lake, that he is likely to be exposed soon. Gauging him bringing in the H1N1 virus is going to be touchy. I know that employees are being sent home more often when they first become sick with anything lately, so I think they are trying to 'watch' it, but the infection spreads so easily and people may not exibit symptoms until they expose others, it could be just hours or a day or two or more before they get symptoms and thats risky to everyone. I am glad that mha is sending employees home and I tend to not spend very many days anymore, doing things with all of them. Everyone else has been doing pretty good regarding any of the bugs running around, but this young man concerns me. He is also quite overweight, and that is a factor in the sensitivity to the H1N1 flu virus. And he would quickly expose at least 15 people in just a couple of hours if he got sick and just didn't stay home.

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http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,533591...test=latestnews

 

Swine Flu: Why You Should Still Be Worried

Friday, July 17, 2009

By Marrecca Fiore

 

Print ShareThisSwine flu is spreading faster than ever — so much so that the World Health Organization has decided to stop tracking cases.

 

In the U.S., the H1N1 virus has sickened tens of thousands and closed summer camps at a time when there should be little or no flu activity.

 

Even as the WHO and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continue to raise awareness of this potentially deadly disease, which appears to be killing both sick and healthy individuals, the topic has virtually disappeared from the headlines.

 

“Complacency is a major concern,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, director for National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC.

 

“This virus is a new one, and on top of that, we really still don’t know how it’s going to behave,” Schuchat said during a media conference call Friday. “There are special efforts that have been undertaken by health agencies, but individuals also need to be ready, to be thinking ahead and have steps in place should a family member get sick or a workplace close down or a situation arise that requires working from home.”

 

Over the next six to 12 weeks, there are several concerns that national health officials are preparing for:

 

1. Figuring out how the virus will react and spread once students return to schools, especially inner city schools, which typically struggle with overcrowding issues.

 

2. Overseeing the completion of a vaccine and getting it to the individuals who need it most.

 

3. Determining how the virus will behave as it spreads and mutates.

 

Schools

 

School districts across the U.S. struggle every fall with outbreaks of typically non-flu respiratory viruses, which are easily spread through germs on surfaces and doorknobs, as well as passed from student to student through sneezing, coughing, and sharing drinks and food.

 

Seasonal influenza usually begins to spread through schools in the late fall and early winter, but this probably will not be the case with swine flu, which behaves differently than seasonal influenza – by oddly thriving in warm and humid conditions.

 

“This year we’re seeing the H1N1 virus circulating through summer camps and military units, so I’m expecting we may see an increase in cases once school starts, but we don’t definitely know that,” Schuchat said. “We are concerned that there will be challenges in the fall. It is the kind of thing we want to be ready for and not surprised by.”

 

Schuchat said national and state health officials are working closely together on updating their guidance for schools and similar institutions with regard to swine flu outbreaks.

 

“We still believe that the best place for kids is in schools, where they can be nourished receiving a healthy breakfast and lunch and learning,” she said. “But we also believe the best place for a sick kid is at home being cared for. So we’re working on putting strong plans in place on communication and preparedness on the local and state levels.”

 

Click here to read the CDC’s advice for parents for educating and protecting children from swine flu.

 

Vaccine

 

Companies such as Baxter, GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis are working to ready a swine flu vaccine for October. Earlier this week, concerns were raised that the U.S. may not receive all the vaccine it needs because it only manufactures about 20 percent of its own supply. The other 80 percent is produced in foreign countries, which will also need ample supplies of the vaccine.

 

But Schuchat downplayed those concerns, saying the U.S. has contracts in place with manufacturers around the world that guarantee it will receive adequate vaccine.

 

But, will the vaccine be effective?

 

In a typical year, the seasonal flu vaccine is about 70 to 90 percent effective, depending on how closely the vaccine matches the strains circulating and on the population the vaccine is used in. In other words, a vaccine is not going to be as effective in a person with a compromised immune system or someone who is considered at high risk for the virus.

 

Scientists typically spend months researching the strains of seasonal flu virus that are circulating the globe in order to pick out the three strains that it puts into the annual vaccine.

 

Because swine flu is new and mutating – for example, in Argentina the virus appears to have mutated to where it can now easily spread from humans to pigs – scientists have their work cut out for them when it comes to determining what strains of the H1N1 swine flu virus to include in the vaccine.

 

“Unfortunately, right now, we do not know how effective it will be in different populations,” Schuchat said. “We will be looking back at how well it worked, taking into account whether it worked as well as expected, better than expected or worse than expected. Unfortunately, that’s something we’re not able to do until after the fact.”

 

Virus Behavior

 

World and U.S. health officials have already determined that swine flu behaves differently than seasonal flu in a number of ways. First, it’s able to spread in hot and humid weather, which is not usually the case for the seasonal flu virus.

 

Second, the infection appears to be more severe in young people and less severe in the elderly than the typical seasonal flu. Schuchat said in some countries, elderly people, usually at high-risk for influenza, appear to be immune to swine flu – possibly because of the similarities between swine flu and the 1918 flu pandemic, which some of the world’s elderly survived and may be resistant to.

 

“We are particularly concerned about pregnant women; we’re seeing fatalities and life-threatening illnesses that have occurred in pregnant women in the Southern Hemisphere,” Schuchat said. “We are expecting pregnant women to get a recommendation to get the H1N1 vaccine to reduce the risk of complications from influenza. We know many pregnant women don’t like to take any drugs, but this is one instance where you need to be much more concerned about your health than the baby’s health.”

 

“We’re in a very active stage of preparing for the [coming months],” she continued. “We’re working with the private sector. We want individuals and families to be preparing. Influenza in general is unpredictable, and we don’t know what to expect in the weeks and months ahead.”

 

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I posted about this little girls death a few post up...

 

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_...icle6722616.ece

 

 

Swine flu girl Chloe Buckley, 6, died of double infection

 

An otherwise healthy child who died after contracting swine flu had a rare and deadly combination of infections, it emerged last night.

 

Chloe Buckley’s death prompted widespread concerns about the risk posed to children by the virus. A post-mortem examination has shown that she also had a serious bacterial infection caused by streptococcus A, which led to tonsillitis and blood poisoning.

 

A 15-year-old Scottish girl has become the 30th person to die after contracting swine flu. The victims include five children and two mothers who had just given birth. All were understood to have had underlying health problems, apart from six-year-old Chloe and a man from Essex.

 

According to the post-mortem, Chloe, from Middlesex, died from “septic shock as a result of tonsillitis infection” after the bacteria entered her bloodstream. Pathologists did not rule out swine flu as a contributory factor in her death. Doctors said that, like any flu, the influenza type A (H1N1) strain could increase the risks of secondary bacterial infections.

 

An American study published in the Journal of Infection and Immunity in 2007 found that such a combination could increase the risks of septicaemia in mice. This occurred even if the animals would be expected to recover fully from separate infections.

 

Doctors sought to reassure parents, saying that deaths in children would be very rare. Mark Porter, the GP in South Gloucestershire who writes for The Times, said that the chances of an otherwise healthy child developing a fatal reaction to a combination of bacterial infection and influenza were “probably less than one in a million”.

 

Chloe died in hospital in London on July 9, the day before her seventh birthday, just 48 hours after complaining to her mother of a sore throat. Her family doctor was said to have diagnosed tonsillitis and sent Chloe home without prescribing the antiviral drug Tamiflu. Her parents, Michael and Jacinta Buckley, later said that they were happy with the care she received.

 

Experts said that influenza was not often fatal in otherwise healthy people and deaths were usually due to secondary bacterial “superinfections”.

 

Laurence Buckman, the chairman of the British Medical Association GPs’ committee, said: “I see cases of ‘strep throat’ several times a week but a GP could go their whole career without seeing a case of toxic shock caused by the bacteria. The development of secondary infections is always worrying but doctors will be on the lookout for signs as the number of swine flu cases increases. This is part of our planning and we have got good procedures in place.”

 

Streptococcus bacteria are carried harmlessly in the throats of at least 10 per cent of the population.

 

The Health Protection Agency said that 263 “severe” group A streptococcal infections had been diagnosed from January to March this year, not necessarily as a result of flu. This was a slight increase on previous years. One in four patients died within seven days of diagnosis, it added.

 

Dr Porter said: “The vast majority of cases of sore throat and tonsillitis are self-limiting and get better without treatment, but in exceptional cases they can progress to much more serious infections, and having swine flu may make that more likely.”

 

The Department of Health said that any flu could make some people more vulnerable to other infections.

 

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More info, schools could be closed up to 12 weeks and all childcare, including private care would be closed down.

Found this in this article:

 

Swine Flu: Watching for Signs of H1N1 Havoc

http://www.cio.com/article/497847/Swine_Fl...ns_of_H_N_Havoc

At companies in the North America, Europe and northern Asia, swine flu may be the last thing on the minds of those in charge of security, pandemic planning and disaster preparedness. After all, it's summer and flu season is still months away.

Leave a comment

By Bill Brenner

Wed, July 22, 2009 — CSO — At companies in the North America, Europe and northern Asia, swine flu may be the last thing on the minds of those in charge of security, pandemic planning and disaster preparedness. After all, it's summer and flu season is still months away.

Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Planning Definition and Solutions

But in the lands down under, where it IS currently flu season, health officials are nervously watching swine flu cases for signs of mutation and a sneak peak at what the rest of the world might be in for this fall and winter. Security professionals in the private sector should be doing the same and planning accordingly.

 

According to one swine flu report on the GlobalPost website, cases of the virus are exploding in Argentina, and its health minister has declared the country to be the most afflicted in the region, if not the world. Indeed, the World Health Organization (WHO) cites Argentina as the place where the most serious illness is happening. "With 137 official H1N1 deaths, the outbreak in Argentina has been the second deadliest of the pandemic, second only to the United States," the report said. "All of those deaths were registered in the past month, almost a third of them just this past weekend. With the flu up north slowed by the summer but just moving into full swing down here, Argentina may very soon have lost more people to the disease than any country on earth. About half of Argentina's H1N1 deaths have been in and around the capital, Buenos Aires."

There are a lot of variables to chew on here. One could argue that the Argentine government has been slow and sloppy in its swine flu response, upping the death toll. It could also be that the quality of health is poorer in some parts of the country than others, and that more people have pre-existing conditions that make them particularly susceptible to H1N1.

In another report from the Reuters news agency, Dr. Anne Schuchat from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said, "We are concerned that there will be challenges in the fall."

Whatever the case, disaster preparedness professionals in this hemisphere should be watching, learning and planning. [see also: Swine Flu: A Wake-Up Call for Emergency Planners]

On the physical side, private entities should be hammering out a game plan for who would do what and where if the government decided to restrict our movements to contain an outbreak.

PAGE 2

Kevin Nixon, an emergency planning expert who has testified before Congress and served on infrastructure security boards and committees including the Disaster Recovery Workgroup for the Office of Homeland Security and the Federal Trade Commission, puts it this way:

 

"Companies and employers that have not done so are being urged to establish a business continuity plan should the government direct state and local governments to immediately enforce their community containment plans." [Podcast: How to Prepare for a Swine Flu Pandemic]

If the Federal government does direct states and communities to implement their emergency plans, recommendations, based on the severity of the pandemic, may include:

• Asking ill people to voluntarily remain at home and not go to work or out in the community for about 7-10 days or until they are well and can no longer spread the infection to others (ill individuals may be treated with influenza antiviral medications, as appropriate, if these medications are effective and available.

• Asking members of households with a person who is ill to voluntarily remain at home for about 7 days (household members may be provided with antiviral medications, if these medications are effective and sufficient in quantity and feasible mechanisms for their distribution have been developed).

• Dismissing students from schools (including public and private schools as well as colleges and universities) and school-based activities and closure of childcare programs for up to 12 weeks, coupled with protecting children and teenagers through social distancing in the community, to include reductions of out-of-school social contacts and community mixing. Childcare programs discussed in this guidance include centers or facilities that provide care to any number of children in a nonresidential setting, large family childcare homes that provide care for seven or more children in the home of the provider, and small family childcare homes that provide care to six or fewer children in the home of the provider.

• Recommending social distancing of adults in the community, which may include cancellation of large public gatherings; changing workplace environments and schedules to decrease social density and preserve a healthy workplace to the greatest extent possible without disrupting essential services; ensuring work-leave policies to align incentives and facilitate adherence with the measures outlined above. [source: Swine Flu: How to Make Biz Continuity Plans, by Kevin Nixon]

On the IT security side, organizations need to be thinking about how to stay on top of things like log monitoring and patch management in the event of sickness among the IT security staff.

By Bill Brenner

PAGE 3

The goal of this column isn't to spread fear over swine flu. In fact, this column is all about shooting down the fear factor. It's far from certain that we're in for a deadly 1918-style pandemic. I personally doubt we'll see the kind of death that ravaged the globe back then. There have been many advances in hygiene and healthcare since then.

 

But security professionals should always be planning for things that probably won't happen. Before 9-11, a lot of people doubted terrorists would turn commercial aircraft into weapons to take down tall buildings. Before Hurricane Katrina, a lot of people never imagined that most of New Orleans would be submerged the way it ultimately was.

Those who are planning for the unthinkable now may well save a lot of lives later.

Bill Brenner is Senior Editor of CSOonline and CSO Magazine. E-mail your views to him at bbrenner@cxo.com.

 

 

 

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/23/health/23vaccine.html

Clinical Trials for Swine Flu Vaccine to Begin Soon

'July 23, 2009'); } By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr. Published: July 22, 2009 With pharmaceutical companies racing to have a swine flu vaccine ready for the fall flu season, the federal government announced Wednesday that the first clinical trials of vaccine candidates would start shortly.

 

The trials are being conducted "in a compressed time frame in a race against the possible autumn resurgence" of the swine flu, possibly at the same time as the regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which will oversee the trials.

 

Only after the trials are done, which is estimated to take about two months, can health officials recommend a vaccination program. It would be voluntary and would have to be rolled out in stages because not nearly enough doses for all Americans will be ready in the fall even if there are no testing or production problems.

 

For the trial, healthy adult volunteers will be recruited at eight sites and given one or two shots, each containing 15 or 30 micrograms of vaccines made by two different companies. Some will get the injections concurrently with seasonal flu vaccines.

 

If the shots seem safe in adults and the elderly, trials in teenagers and children as young as 6 months will be added.

 

About 2,400 volunteers will be tested in this round, Dr. Fauci said. All will be monitored for bad reactions, and, about three weeks after each shot, their blood will be tested to see how many antibodies to the swine flu were made. A high antibody level means the volunteer would not get the flu or would get only a mild case.

 

In such a small trial, researchers will be able to pick up only obvious problems, Dr. Fauci said. Typical side effects of seasonal flu shots include sore arms, fever and aches. (These symptoms, echoing those of mild flu, lead to the persistent but false rumor that flu shots cause flu, experts say.) Rarer but more serious side effects like hives, dizziness and breathing problems usually stem from allergies to the chicken eggs that vaccines are grown in.

 

Researchers will also look out for Guillain-Barré syndrome, which can cause fever and serious nerve damage and muscle weakness.

 

The 1976 vaccination of 40 million people after a swine flu outbreak in Fort Dix, N. J., was stopped after some people developed the syndrome. But shots were never proved to have been the cause, and the syndrome may be an extremely rare reaction to any vaccination.

 

According to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about one person in 100,000 develops Guillain-Barré syndrome for unknown reasons. These trials are very unlikely to pick up a side effect that rare. "You'd have to vaccinate several hundred thousand or millions of people to do that," Dr. Fauci said.

 

The trials will be conducted at eight hospital and medical organizations that have been used since 1962 to test seasonal flu shots and other experimental vaccines. They include the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, Children's Hospital Medical Center in Cincinnati, Emory University in Atlanta, Group Health Cooperative in Seattle, the University of Iowa in Iowa City, the University of Maryland medical school in Baltimore, St. Louis University and Vanderbilt University in Nashville.

 

The initial tests will be of vaccines made by Sanofi-Pasteur, a European company, and CSL Biotherapies, an Australian company that has supplied seasonal flu shots in the United States for years. Novartis, the third company from which the government has contracts to buy large amounts of swine flu vaccine, is conducting separate trials for Food and Drug Administration licensing, Dr. Fauci said.

 

None of the first trials will test a vaccine containing an adjuvant, which is an additive, usually an oil-water emulsion, that stimulates the immune system to react more strongly. The government bought large stocks of adjuvants to stretch the vaccine supply if the flu mutates into a more dangerous form and a clamor for shots emerges.

 

Adjuvants, which are common in veterinary vaccines, cause more side effects and are not now used in flu shots in the United States. But they are "not off the board," Dr. Fauci said. "We've developed a mix-and-match protocol for them, but we want to see the data on vaccine safety first."

 

Later tests may include pregnant women, he said, who are at higher risk for swine flu complications.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...-just-week.html

 

Swine flu cases double as 100,000 people contract disease in just one week

By Wil Longbottom

Last updated at 4:46 PM on 23rd July 2009

 

 

New cases of swine flu double in seven days

 

840 people 'seriously ill' in hospital, 63 in intensive care

 

Majority of cases are people aged 16-64

 

Tower Hamlets is worst affected area in England

 

Official website crashes within minutes of launch

 

The number of confirmed new cases of swine flu in England last week soared by almost double to 100,000, the Department of Health said.

 

Doctors say a total of 840 people are classed as 'seriously ill' in hospital - 63 of them in intensive care - from the effects of the disease.

The latest figure is a dramatic rise on the previous week, where 55,000 consulted their GPs with suspected swine flu.

An official website set up by the Government to deal with people worried they have contracted the virus was launched at 3pm but just minutes later was too busy to cope.

Visitors to the site wanting to check their symptoms were told: 'The service is currently very busy and we cannot deal with your request at this time.'

 

The Department of Health reported 100,000 new confirmed cases of swine flu last week, nearly double the previous week

 

The majority of people with the virus in hospital are aged 16 to 64, with 435 cases, followed by the under-fives, with 169 cases.

Among those aged over 65, 149 people are in hospital and there are 87 cases among young people aged five to 15.

 

Tower Hamlets in east London continues to be the primary care trust with the highest number of GP consultations for people with flu-like illness.

It is seeing 792 consultations per 100,000 people, followed by Islington in north London with 488 consultations per 100,000.

Other badly affected parts of England include Greenwich, south east London, Leicester, and Telford and Wrekin.

The Government's chief medical officer for England, Sir Liam Donaldson, said information on the number of deaths in England had now been provisionally validated.

 

This means each death has been fully investigated to determine whether somebody had swine flu and to what extent it may have contributed to their death.

He said there were 26 deaths in England that were now provisionally validated, which is the same figure as last week.

But Sir Liam would not be drawn on how many of those deaths were new and how many deaths had been discounted in the new calculations.

'Some have gone out and some have come in,' he said. 'We are down to the sorts of numbers where it might be possible to identify individuals.'

GlaxoSmithKline has been accused of profiteering over its H1N1 vaccine, which is expected to cost £6 a jab

He was unable to explain why the UK appeared to be worse affected than the rest of Europe, saying it could simply be down to better surveillance systems here.

 

He added: 'We also have strong travel links with North America. Then I probably think there's an X-factor, it might be just that the eco system for the virus here is different to other countries. There's an unpredictability and inexplicability about the flu virus.'

A number of deaths have been fully investigated but Sir Liam would not give the figure for reasons of patient confidentiality. Some 31 in total are thought to have died.

 

Of these, 67 per cent had severe conditions such as leukaemia, 11 per cent had moderate conditions such as insulin dependant diabetes, and 6 per cent had mild conditions such as high blood pressure controlled by tablets.

A total of 16 per cent of patients had no medical conditions and were not taking any medication.

Sir Liam said: 'The bad thing would be if 100 per cent of the deaths were healthy people. The vast majority of people, even with an underlying condition, will get the flu and recover well.

'The highest hospitalisation rate is for the under fives. Under fives remain the most likely to be hospitalised and the proportion being hospitalised has gone up a bit in the last week.'

The statistics released today showed some fall in the number of people seeking medical advice for flu symptoms, but Sir Liam said it was too early to draw any conclusions that the current outbreak had peaked.

'There is some evidence of falls in numbers in some parts of the country but we don't know what the significance of that is and we are doubtful that it represents a trend.'

He added: 'It's a little bit of possible good news. That's as far as I would go.'

He said the Government's response, which includes the setting up of the new National Pandemic Flu Service, was 100 per cent worthwhile.

 

The new telephone and web service for victims was launched today and is capable of answering more than one million calls a week.

It went live at 3pm and is being staffed by more than 1,500 call centre staff, with the option of recruiting 500 more.

The initial 1,500 will be capable of more than 200,000 calls a day - or more than one million calls a week.

Call centre staff will take callers through a computerised questionnaire to check symptoms.

 

If it is suspected they have swine flu, callers will be given a unique reference number, allowing them to pick up anti-viral drugs from the otherwise secret locations.

 

The sufferer will then send a 'flu buddy' to pick up the drugs, who will have to present ID for the patient and the reference number when they collect the medication.

People can also visit the official website and check their symptoms online, but within moments of its launch today the system was flooded with queries and turning people away.

 

Meanwhile, Met Police commissioner Sir Paul Stephenson said that 272 police officers have suspected swine flu, with 220 off sick.

 

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...l#ixzz0M6ULq3IA

 

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...-just-week.html

 

Swine flu cases double as 100,000 people contract disease in just one week

By Wil Longbottom

Last updated at 4:46 PM on 23rd July 2009

 

 

New cases of swine flu double in seven days

 

840 people 'seriously ill' in hospital, 63 in intensive care

 

Majority of cases are people aged 16-64

 

Tower Hamlets is worst affected area in England

 

Official website crashes within minutes of launch

 

The number of confirmed new cases of swine flu in England last week soared by almost double to 100,000, the Department of Health said.

 

Doctors say a total of 840 people are classed as 'seriously ill' in hospital - 63 of them in intensive care - from the effects of the disease.

The latest figure is a dramatic rise on the previous week, where 55,000 consulted their GPs with suspected swine flu.

An official website set up by the Government to deal with people worried they have contracted the virus was launched at 3pm but just minutes later was too busy to cope.

Visitors to the site wanting to check their symptoms were told: 'The service is currently very busy and we cannot deal with your request at this time.'

 

The Department of Health reported 100,000 new confirmed cases of swine flu last week, nearly double the previous week

 

The majority of people with the virus in hospital are aged 16 to 64, with 435 cases, followed by the under-fives, with 169 cases.

Among those aged over 65, 149 people are in hospital and there are 87 cases among young people aged five to 15.

 

Tower Hamlets in east London continues to be the primary care trust with the highest number of GP consultations for people with flu-like illness.

It is seeing 792 consultations per 100,000 people, followed by Islington in north London with 488 consultations per 100,000.

Other badly affected parts of England include Greenwich, south east London, Leicester, and Telford and Wrekin.

The Government's chief medical officer for England, Sir Liam Donaldson, said information on the number of deaths in England had now been provisionally validated.

 

This means each death has been fully investigated to determine whether somebody had swine flu and to what extent it may have contributed to their death.

He said there were 26 deaths in England that were now provisionally validated, which is the same figure as last week.

But Sir Liam would not be drawn on how many of those deaths were new and how many deaths had been discounted in the new calculations.

'Some have gone out and some have come in,' he said. 'We are down to the sorts of numbers where it might be possible to identify individuals.'

GlaxoSmithKline has been accused of profiteering over its H1N1 vaccine, which is expected to cost £6 a jab

He was unable to explain why the UK appeared to be worse affected than the rest of Europe, saying it could simply be down to better surveillance systems here.

 

He added: 'We also have strong travel links with North America. Then I probably think there's an X-factor, it might be just that the eco system for the virus here is different to other countries. There's an unpredictability and inexplicability about the flu virus.'

A number of deaths have been fully investigated but Sir Liam would not give the figure for reasons of patient confidentiality. Some 31 in total are thought to have died.

 

Of these, 67 per cent had severe conditions such as leukaemia, 11 per cent had moderate conditions such as insulin dependant diabetes, and 6 per cent had mild conditions such as high blood pressure controlled by tablets.

A total of 16 per cent of patients had no medical conditions and were not taking any medication.

Sir Liam said: 'The bad thing would be if 100 per cent of the deaths were healthy people. The vast majority of people, even with an underlying condition, will get the flu and recover well.

'The highest hospitalisation rate is for the under fives. Under fives remain the most likely to be hospitalised and the proportion being hospitalised has gone up a bit in the last week.'

The statistics released today showed some fall in the number of people seeking medical advice for flu symptoms, but Sir Liam said it was too early to draw any conclusions that the current outbreak had peaked.

'There is some evidence of falls in numbers in some parts of the country but we don't know what the significance of that is and we are doubtful that it represents a trend.'

He added: 'It's a little bit of possible good news. That's as far as I would go.'

He said the Government's response, which includes the setting up of the new National Pandemic Flu Service, was 100 per cent worthwhile.

 

The new telephone and web service for victims was launched today and is capable of answering more than one million calls a week.

It went live at 3pm and is being staffed by more than 1,500 call centre staff, with the option of recruiting 500 more.

The initial 1,500 will be capable of more than 200,000 calls a day - or more than one million calls a week.

Call centre staff will take callers through a computerised questionnaire to check symptoms.

 

If it is suspected they have swine flu, callers will be given a unique reference number, allowing them to pick up anti-viral drugs from the otherwise secret locations.

 

The sufferer will then send a 'flu buddy' to pick up the drugs, who will have to present ID for the patient and the reference number when they collect the medication.

People can also visit the official website and check their symptoms online, but within moments of its launch today the system was flooded with queries and turning people away.

 

Meanwhile, Met Police commissioner Sir Paul Stephenson said that 272 police officers have suspected swine flu, with 220 off sick.

 

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...l#ixzz0M6ULq3IA

 

Link to comment

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-SwineFl...E56M4F420090723

 

U.S. has bought 195 million doses of H1N1 vaccine

Thu Jul 23, 2009 11:23am EDT

 

GAITHERSBURG, Maryland (Reuters) - The U.S. government has bought 195 million doses of H1N1 swine flu vaccine for a possible autumn vaccination campaign, a U.S. federal official said on Thursday.

 

The U.S. Health and Human Services department has also contracted for 120 million doses of adjuvant, a compound to stretch the number of doses of vaccine needed, HHS's Dr. Robin Robinson told a meeting of Food and Drug Administration advisers

 

 

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Just a quick note; I have updated my site http://www.Drum-Runners.com with additional information & resources in case anyone is interested.

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Lots of stories out today on Swine.....

 

Swine flu could strike up to 40 percent in 2 years

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090724/ap_on_...s_med_swine_flu

 

ATLANTA – U.S. health officials say swine flu could strike up to 40 percent of Americans over the next two years and as many as several hundred thousand could die if a vaccine campaign and other measures aren't successful.

 

Those estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mean about twice the number of people who usually get sick in a normal flu season would be struck by swine flu. Officials said those projections would drop if a new vaccine is ready and widely available, as U.S. officials expect.

 

The U.S. may have as many as 160 million doses of swine flu vaccine available sometime in October, and U.S. tests of the new vaccine are to start shortly, federal officials said this week.

 

The infection estimates are based on a flu pandemic from 1957, which killed nearly 70,000 in the United States but was not as severe as the infamous Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19. But influenza is notoriously hard to predict. The number of deaths and illnesses would drop if the pandemic peters out or if efforts to slow its spread are successful, said CDC spokesman Tom Skinner.

 

A CDC official said the agency came up with the estimate last month, but it was first disclosed in an interview with The Associated Press.

 

"Hopefully, mitigation efforts will have a big impact on future cases," Skinner said.

 

In a normal flu season, about 36,000 people die from flu and its complications, according to American Medical Association estimates. Because so many more people are expected to catch the new flu, the number of deaths over two years could range from 90,000 to several hundred thousand, the CDC calculated. Again, that is if a new vaccine and other efforts fail.

 

The World Health Organization says as many as 2 billion people could become infected over the next two years — nearly one-third of the world population. The estimates look at potential impacts over a two-year period because past flu pandemics have occurred in waves over more than one year.

 

WHO officials believe the world is in the early phase of the new pandemic.

 

First identified in April, swine flu has likely infected more than 1 million Americans, the CDC believes, with many of those suffering mild cases never reported. There have been 302 deaths and nearly 44,000 reported cases, according to numbers released Friday morning.

 

Because the swine flu virus is new, most people haven't developed an immunity against it. So far, most of those who have died from it in the United States have had other health problems, such as asthma.

 

The virus has caused an unusual number of serious illnesses in teens and young adults; seasonal flu usually is toughest on the elderly and very young children.

 

New swine flu illness have erupted through the summer, which is also unusual, though cases were less widespread this month. Officials fear an explosion of cases in the fall, when children return to school and the weather turns cold, making the virus easier to spread.

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State official: Millions of Floridians could contract H1N1 virus within a year

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/bre...0,1466113.story

 

7:01 PM EDT, July 23, 2009

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TALLAHASSEE - A top state medical official says 5 million Floridians could contract the swine flu within a year if the virus follows the pattern of previous pandemics.

 

Acting state epidemiologist Dr. Richard Hopkins said Thursday that pandemics are deadly because so many people get sick. He notes that as many as 30 percent or more of the population was infected in previous pandemics.

 

Officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says they've been estimated this pandemic could be along the lines of the 1957 Asian flu outbreak, with similar infection rates.

 

Florida has reported that 22 residents infected with the H1N1 virus have died, including 10 in the last three weeks. Officials counts say at least 2,900 Floridians have been sickened from the virus. However, experts say adding in unreported illnesses would make the actual number much higher. Officials expect more cases after public schools open next month.

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNew...=22&sp=true

 

All U.S. children should get seasonal flu shot: CDC

Fri Jul 24, 2009 11:51am EDT

 

1 of 1Full SizeWASHINGTON (Reuters) - All U.S. children aged 6 months to 18 years should get a seasonal influenza vaccine every year, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday.

 

The CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat said the agency was strengthening recommendations for children to get the vaccination against seasonal influenza, especially with fears that the new H1N1 virus will be added to the already expected burden of seasonal flu.

 

 

 

 

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Question....are they stopping the death count or are they going to stop making it public???

 

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-SwineFl...E56N3PQ20090724

 

CDC stops swine flu death count at 300

Fri Jul 24, 2009 11:06am EDT

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - More than 300 people have died from the new pandemic swine flu virus, U.S. health officials said on Friday, but they said the virus was so widespread they were ceasing the official count.

 

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said 43,771 cases of H1N1 influenza had been officially confirmed, with 302 deaths.

 

The pandemic spread globally in less than two months and has infected people in 160 countries, killing 800 people, the World Health Organization said. The WHO numbers do not include the latest CDC count.

 

Health experts say millions have likely been infected worldwide, but doctors can only test a fraction of suspected cases. Flu tests are expensive and unreliable and confirming H1N1 swine flu is difficult.

 

Health officials are now working with companies to test and make a vaccine against H1N1 to be delivered alongside seasonal influenza vaccines.

 

 

Link to comment

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...LO6472720090724

 

UPDATE 4-WHO says pandemic gaining speed, sees winter risks

Fri Jul 24, 2009 5:27pm EDT

 

By Laura MacInnis and Stephanie Nebehay

 

GENEVA, July 24 (Reuters) - The H1N1 flu virus is starting to infect older people, and pregnant women and the obese are at highest risk, the World Health Organisation said on Friday.

 

In a statement, the United Nations agency said school-age children remain most affected by the newly discovered virus that has been spreading fast in schools and is gaining momentum in broad communities alongside seasonal flu.

 

"It remains a top priority to determine which groups of people are at highest risk of serious disease so steps to best protect them can be taken," it said, estimating that vaccine manufacturers should have H1N1 shots ready soon.

 

"Manufacturers are expected to have vaccines for use around September. A number of companies are working on the pandemic vaccine production and have different timelines," the statement on the WHO website read.

 

About 800 people have died from the new virus whose fast international transmission caused the WHO to declare in June that a flu pandemic is under way. But for most patients, H1N1 is causing mild and manageable symptoms.

 

"For the moment we haven't seen any changes in the behaviour of the virus," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said earlier on Friday, while warning the virus could change as it circulates, especially in flu-conducive wintry conditions.

 

"We do have to be aware that there could be changes and we have to be prepared for those," he told a Geneva news briefing.

 

 

VACCINE SUPPLIES

 

At least 50 governments have placed orders or are currently negotiating with pharmaceutical companies to secure supplies of H1N1 vaccines, which are still being developed. [iD:nN16442908]

 

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is helping companies design ways to quickly test experimental versions of pandemic shots, and the European Medicines Agency is aiming to approve H1N1 vaccines before the onset of northern hemisphere winter, the traditional "flu season" in Europe. [iD:nLO128743]

 

The WHO is trying to ensure that health workers in poor countries can be vaccinated so hospitals can stay open if the flu becomes more debilitating as it spreads. Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) have promised to donate 150 million doses to this aim to date.

 

Other leading flu vaccine makers include Novartis (NOVN.VX), Baxter (BAX.N), and Solvay (SOLB.BR).

 

Clinical trials of H1N1 shots "will give a better idea of the number of doses required for a person to be immunised, as well as the quantity of active principle (antigen) needed in each vaccine dose," the WHO said.

 

Estimates of the global supply of vaccines will be based on how many jabs are needed to protect each person.

 

The H1N1 virus, first discovered in Mexico and the United States, is a never-before-seen combination of swine, bird and human flu strains, and initially infected mainly young people.

 

Concerns about the way it was spreading, and about deaths reported among healthy people in North America, caused the WHO to declare that a flu pandemic is under way. [iD:nLC321991] Some 160 countries have now reported infections.

 

Last week, the WHO described H1N1 as the fastest-moving pandemic ever seen. [iD:nLG309223] On Friday, it said infections were "still increasing substantially in many countries, even in countries that have already been affected for some time."

 

 

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The UK will institute swine flu vaccines in august.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_med_swine_fl...cine_fast_track

 

 

Europe fast-tracking swine flu vaccine

AP

 

 

Swine flu virus has spread to almost every country: WHO AFPTV – Swine flu has now spread to nearly every corner of the globe, according to the World Health Organization, …

 

By MARIA CHENG, AP Medical Writer Maria Cheng, Ap Medical Writer – 14 mins ago

 

LONDON – In a drive to inoculate people against swine flu before winter, many European governments say they will fast-track the testing of a new flu vaccine, arousing concern among some experts about safety issues and proper vaccine doses.

 

The European Medicines Agency, the EU's top drug regulatory body, is accelerating the approval process for swine flu vaccine, and countries such as Britain, Greece, France and Sweden say they'll start using the vaccine after it's greenlighted — possibly within weeks.

 

In an interview with The Associated Press, Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the World Health Organization's flu chief, warned about the potential dangers of untested vaccines, although he stopped short of criticizing Europe's approach outright.

 

"One of the things which cannot be compromised is the safety of vaccines," he said Friday. "There are certain areas where you can make economies, perhaps, but certain areas where you simply do not try to make any economies."

 

Flu vaccines have been used for 40 years, and many experts say extensive testing is unnecessary, since the swine flu vaccine will simply contain a new ingredient: the swine flu virus.

 

But European officials won't know if the new vaccine causes any rare side effects until millions of people get the shots. Still, they say the benefit of saving lives is worth the gamble.

 

"Everybody is doing the best they can in a situation which is far from ideal," said Martin Harvey-Allchurch, a spokesman for the European Medicines Agency. "With the winter flu season approaching, we need to make sure the vaccine is available."

 

In Europe, flu vaccines are usually tested on hundreds of people for several weeks or months, to ensure the immune system produces enough antibodies to fight the infection.

 

But to ensure swine flu vaccine is available as soon as possible, the European Medicines Agency is allowing companies to skip testing in large numbers of people before the vaccine is approved.

 

The main issue is probably that without thorough testing it's difficult to gauge the effective dosage — meaning Europeans might get too weak a vaccine. It's unlikely the vaccine would endanger anyone, but until it is used in large numbers of people, no one will know for sure.

 

Europeans appear ready to use the vaccine widely before conducting any big studies to prove it is safe and effective. Neither the vaccine makers nor the European Medicines Agency would specify what basic safety tests are being done.

 

The U.S. is taking a more cautious approach: the government called Wednesday for several thousand volunteers to be injected with the swine flu vaccine in tests beginning in August to assess the vaccine's safety. American officials said results should be ready by the time the U.S. plans to roll out a vaccination campaign in October.

 

Results from the U.S. tests will be of limited use to Europe, since countries like Britain plan to start vaccinating as early as August — before any American trial data is available. The vaccines used in the U.S. will also be different from those in Europe.

 

Some experts favor urgent action.

 

"The consequences of not having a vaccine if this virus gets worse are very high," said Leonard Marcus, a public health expert at Harvard University. "If (regulatory authorities) took all the time that was necessary to make sure there are no side effects, ironically, in the effort to save a few lives, many lives could be lost."

 

But critics say dangers lurk in any strategy to vaccinate without robust testing.

 

Scant information exists on flu vaccines with adjuvants, a component used to stretch the active ingredient that is commonly found in European flu vaccines. There are no licensed flu vaccines with the ingredient in the U.S.

 

There is also limited or no data on the safety and effectiveness of vaccines with adjuvants in children under 3 and pregnant women — two of the most vulnerable groups in a pandemic — a global outbreak.

 

Mass swine flu vaccination campaigns will also take place in the shadow of the 1976 swine flu disaster, when hundreds of people in the U.S. developed Guillain-Barre syndrome, a paralyzing disorder, after being vaccinated.

 

Experts don't know why that happened, but say modern vaccine production techniques have improved since 1976. To avoid a similar episode, some say comprehensive testing before the vaccine is rolled out is essential.

 

"I can't see any possible excuse to not test it for safety before it's given to anyone," said George Annas, a bioethics expert at Boston University.

 

If the vaccine turns out to have dangerous side effects, it could generate a public backlash, particularly in a country like Britain, where many people remain suspicious of vaccines because of unsubstantiated allegations linking the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine to autism. That could lead to millions of people refusing vaccination.

 

When the bird flu crisis hit several years ago, the European Medicines Agency designed a special protocol to approve a vaccine for use in a pandemic as soon as possible.

 

The agency let companies submit data for a "mock-up" vaccine, using H5N1 bird flu. The idea was to do most of the testing before the global epidemic hit so when it did, drugmakers could insert the pandemic virus into the vaccine at the last minute.

 

When the first swine flu vaccine doses are ready, the European Medicines Agency will approve them largely based on data from the bird flu vaccine, since both will have the same basic ingredients.

 

If the agency thinks the bird flu data predicts how the swine flu virus will work, they will approve it, said spokesman Harvey-Allchurch.

 

The agency will then require regular reporting of the vaccine's effects as it is being administered — monitoring that is normally done beforehand.

 

WHO's Fukuda said everyone involved in making the vaccine, from manufacturers to regulatory agencies, is looking at what steps can be taken to streamline the process.

 

"But there is no one who disagrees that one of the absolutes is that there can't be any question whether the vaccine is safe or not," he said.

 

WHO reported that the swine flu viruses aren't producing enough of a key vaccine ingredient, which may limit how much vaccine is available. Its laboratory network is now working to produce a new set of viruses that it hopes will work better.

 

Drugmakers including Baxter International, GlaxoSmithKline PLC, Novartis and Sanofi-Pasteur, however, insist they will be able to start shipping the first batches of vaccine soon.

 

British health officials have repeatedly said they will start vaccinating in August, as soon as the vaccine is approved. Other European countries, including Greece, France, Sweden, say they will use the vaccine after it gets the green light from the European agency, but none other than Britain expect to start the shots next month.

 

___

 

Associated Press writers Frank Jordans in Geneva, Malin Rising in Stockholm, Jenny Barchfield in Paris, and Derek Gatopoulos in Athens contributed to this report.

 

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H1N1 might be mutating...

http://www.rep-am.com/articles/2009/07/26/news/427873.txt

~~~~~~~~~~~

 

Argentina flu death mystery sparks probe for virus mutation

 

By Eliana Raszewski and Jason Gale | Bloomberg News

 

 

Scientists wondering why swine flu has killed more people in Argentina than almost any other nation are studying whether a more dangerous mutant has emerged.

 

The Latin American country has reported more than 130 deaths from the pandemic H1N1 flu virus since June. Analyses of specimens taken from two severely ill patients showed subtle genetic differences in the virus, the International Society for Infectious Diseases said in a report via its ProMED-mail program last week.

 

Scientists from Columbia University and Argentina's National Institute of Infectious Diseases now plan to decode the complete genomic sequences of at least 150 virus samples over the next 10 days to gauge the frequency of the changes and whether they are linked to more severe illness. Major changes in the pandemic virus could erode the effectiveness of vaccines being prepared to fight the scourge.

 

"We are cautious about the findings until we have more sequences," said Gustavo Palacios, assistant professor of clinical epidemiology at Columbia University, who is participating in the study. The changes already noted haven't previously been associated with greater virulence, he said Friday in a telephone interview from New York.

 

Roche Holding AG's 454 Life Sciences unit, which makes genetic-sequencing technology, is helping to decode viruses swabbed from patients' noses and throats. The sequence data will be shared with other scientists for broader analysis, according to ProMED.

 

The pandemic virus has infected at least 125,000 people globally, killing about 800, the World Health Organization said. Only the U.S., with 263 deaths, has recorded more fatalities than Argentina. More than 3,000 people have caught the bug in the country, with the biggest surge in cases occurring in the first two weeks of July.

 

To cope, hospitals such as the Federico Abete, on the outskirts of the capital, Buenos Aires, converted halls and waiting areas into treatment rooms to double the number of beds to 200. At the peak, 120 swine flu patients were hospitalized at Federico Abete with a death rate of four a day. It now has 90 patients confirmed or suspected to have the virus.

 

"We could say that we are on a downward trend, but we may have a new outbreak in August, when kids go back to school because this flu isn't going to disappear," said Carlos Rubinstein, head of research at the hospital, one of the major pandemic-treatment centers in the province of Buenos Aires. "We see fewer patients sent from other hospitals and fewer people coming in who are concerned they have swine flu."

 

Rubinstein said he can't explain why so many cases in Argentina were fatal. Nine of every 10 cases of flu in the country are caused by the pandemic strain, Health Minister Juan Luis Manzur said on July 6. Rubinstein said it's possible the virus circulating in Argentina swapped some of its genes with a seasonal strain, spawning a new variant.

 

Others blame the health system and the distraction of a mid-term election on June 28, which saw the ruling coalition lose majority control of congress and was followed by the resignation of former health minister Graciela Ocana.

 

"We have a more dramatic situation than in other countries because Argentina delayed taking measures before the mid-term elections," said health economist Ariel Umpierrez, who heads a nongovernmental organization called Medicos sin Banderas, or Doctors Without Flags, which teaches poor people about hygiene and how to prevent and respond to sickness. "We wasted a lot of time."

 

A spokeswoman for the Health Ministry in Buenos Aires didn't immediately respond to a message left by Bloomberg seeking comment.

 

The Argentine government ordered companies to give 15 days paid leave to pregnant women and people suffering diabetes and autoimmune diseases. It also closed all public offices -- which led to banks and financial markets not operating -- on Friday, July 10, creating a four-day weekend that started with the July 9 national holiday.

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http://www.wlwt.com/health/20208343/detail.html

 

Mother Of H1N1 Victims Speaks Out

Benefit To Be Held For McIntosh Family Saturday

 

POSTED: 10:17 pm EDT July 28, 2009

UPDATED: 12:21 am EDT July 29, 2009

 

 

CINCINNATI -- A Tri-State family is grieving after losing a son and daughter to the H1N1 virus just months apart.

 

Katrina and Mark McIntosh said their nightmare began on June 24 when their 19-year-old son Matt started feeling sick.

 

"Sometimes he runs a fever with a sinus infection or something. I didn't even think anything about it," Katrine McIntosh said.

 

However, he started coughing up blood a few days later, beginning downward spiral that ended just one week later as his heart gave out from the virus.

 

"It was the most horrible thing I've ever done; watch him get sicker and sicker. He didn't get any better," McIntosh said.

 

At the same time, their 26-year-old daughter Mindy started to feel sick, too.

 

After weeks on a ventilator, she started to feel better and begin a recover.

 

"It was best day of my life on Saturday. We got to spend a little bit of time with her, we didn't get that with Matt," McIntosh said.

 

The following morning, Mindy started getting worse and 48 hours later she passed away, leaving both parents reeling from the deaths of their children.

 

McIntosh said that on the day her son died, she found a four-leaf clover. She said she found another one less than 24 hours after losing her daughter, too. McIntosh said it was a sign they're together.

 

"I never dreamed this would happen," McIntosh said.

 

"Mark said yesterday, 'It's just you and me kid. We've got to make it through together,'" McIntosh said.

 

A benefit is being held on Saturday for the family at Lesko Park in Aurora. It runs from 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. There will be live music and a raffle.

Link to comment

Europe fast-tracking swine flu vaccine

By MARIA CHENG, AP Medical Writer Maria Cheng, Ap Medical Writer

Sun Jul 26, 5:42 pm ET

 

LONDON – In a drive to inoculate people against swine flu before winter, many European governments say they will fast-track the testing of a vaccine, arousing concern among some experts about safety and proper doses.

 

The European Medicines Agency, the EU's top drug regulatory body, is accelerating the approval process for swine flu vaccine, and countries such as Britain, Greece, France and Sweden say they'll start using the vaccine after it's greenlighted — possibly within weeks.

 

In an interview with The Associated Press, Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the World Health Organization's flu chief, warned about the potential dangers of untested vaccines, although he stopped short of criticizing Europe's approach outright.

 

"One of the things which cannot be compromised is the safety of vaccines," he said Friday. "There are certain areas where you can make economies, perhaps, but certain areas where you simply do not try to make any economies."

 

Flu vaccines have been used for 40 years, and many experts say extensive testing is unnecessary, since the swine flu vaccine will simply contain a new ingredient: the swine flu virus.

 

But European officials won't know if the new vaccine causes any rare side effects until millions of people get the shots. Still, they say the benefit of saving lives is worth the gamble.

 

"Everybody is doing the best they can in a situation which is far from ideal," said Martin Harvey-Allchurch, a spokesman for the European Medicines Agency. "With the winter flu season approaching, we need to make sure the vaccine is available."

 

In Europe, flu vaccines are usually tested on hundreds of people for several weeks or months, to ensure the immune system produces enough antibodies to fight the infection.

 

But to ensure swine flu vaccine is available as soon as possible, the European Medicines Agency is allowing companies to skip testing in large numbers of people before the vaccine is approved.

 

The main issue is probably that without thorough testing it's difficult to gauge the effective dosage — meaning Europeans might get too weak a vaccine. It's unlikely the vaccine would endanger anyone, but until it is used in large numbers of people, no one will know for sure.

 

Europeans appear ready to use the vaccine widely before conducting any big studies to prove it is safe and effective. Neither the vaccine makers nor the European Medicines Agency would specify what basic safety tests are being done.

 

The U.S. is taking a more cautious approach: the government called Wednesday for several thousand volunteers to be injected with the swine flu vaccine in tests beginning in August to assess the vaccine's safety. American officials said results should be ready by the time the U.S. plans to roll out a vaccination campaign in October.

 

Results from the U.S. tests will be of limited use to Europe, since countries like Britain plan to start vaccinating as early as August — before any American trial data is available. The vaccines used in the U.S. will also be different from those in Europe.

 

Some experts favor urgent action.

 

[b]"The consequences of not having a vaccine if this virus gets worse are very high," said Leonard Marcus, a public health expert at Harvard University. "If (regulatory authorities) took all the time that was necessary to make sure there are no side effects, ironically, in the effort to save a few lives, many lives could be lost."[/b]

 

But critics say dangers lurk in any strategy to vaccinate without robust testing.

 

Scant information exists on flu vaccines with adjuvants, a component used to stretch the active ingredient that is commonly found in European flu vaccines. There are no licensed flu vaccines with the ingredient in the U.S.

 

There is also limited or no data on the safety and effectiveness of vaccines with adjuvants in children under 3 and pregnant women — two of the most vulnerable groups in a pandemic — a global outbreak.

 

Mass swine flu vaccination campaigns will also take place in the shadow of the 1976 swine flu disaster, when hundreds of people in the U.S. developed Guillain-Barre syndrome, a paralyzing disorder, after being vaccinated.

 

Experts don't know why that happened, but say modern vaccine production techniques have improved since 1976. To avoid a similar episode, some say comprehensive testing before the vaccine is rolled out is essential.

 

"I can't see any possible excuse to not test it for safety before it's given to anyone," said George Annas, a bioethics expert at Boston University.

 

If the vaccine turns out to have dangerous side effects, it could generate a public backlash, particularly in a country like Britain, where many people remain suspicious of vaccines because of unsubstantiated allegations linking the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine to autism. That could lead to millions of people refusing vaccination.

 

When the bird flu crisis hit several years ago, the European Medicines Agency designed a special protocol to approve a vaccine for use in a pandemic as soon as possible.

 

The agency let companies submit data for a "mock-up" vaccine, using H5N1 bird flu. The idea was to do most of the testing before the global epidemic hit so when it did, drugmakers could insert the pandemic virus into the vaccine at the last minute.

 

When the first swine flu vaccine doses are ready, the European Medicines Agency will approve them largely based on data from the bird flu vaccine, since both will have the same basic ingredients.

 

If the agency thinks the bird flu data predicts how the swine flu virus will work, they will approve it, said spokesman Harvey-Allchurch.

 

The agency will then require regular reporting of the vaccine's effects as it is being administered — monitoring that is normally done beforehand.

 

WHO's Fukuda said everyone involved in making the vaccine, from manufacturers to regulatory agencies, is looking at what steps can be taken to streamline the process.

 

"But there is no one who disagrees that one of the absolutes is that there can't be any question whether the vaccine is safe or not," he said.

 

WHO reported that the swine flu viruses aren't producing enough of a key vaccine ingredient, which may limit how much vaccine is available. Its laboratory network is now working to produce a new set of viruses that it hopes will work better.

 

Drugmakers including Baxter International, GlaxoSmithKline PLC, Novartis and Sanofi-Pasteur, however, insist they will be able to start shipping the first batches of vaccine soon.

 

British health officials have repeatedly said they will start vaccinating in August, as soon as the vaccine is approved. Other European countries, including Greece, France, Sweden, say they will use the vaccine after it gets the green light from the European agency, but none other than Britain expect to start the shots next month.

 

 

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