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Here it COMES....!


Well, as you may have noticed, we are nearing the halfway point in September and on the doorstep of Fall. With Fall comes cooler temperatures, leaves changing color, football games, bon fires and of course- thoughts of what the upcoming winter may have in store for us. First, as everyone is likely aware, last winter did not go as planned for meteorologists and forecasters alike as the long range forecast models pointed to a very active winter with Greenland Blocking being the driving force.


Greenland Blocking essentially occurs when there is High Pressure in the upper atmosphere over or around Greenland causing the jet stream over North America to take a dramatic dip Southward across the Eastern United States causing an extended window of cooler than normal temperatures. This pattern is referred to as NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation).


Greenland Blocking ultimately did occur, but it was too little too late for many areas of the country that normally experience lofty annual snowfall totals. Heading into Fall, the dynamics are already present for a solid Greenland Blocking setup.


As we head into Fall and Winter, we are in fact within a transitional climate phase going from a lengthy La Nina period to an El Nino period. This transitional phase generally spells for a more active winter and following severe weather season (Summer 2013).


(Here the site has pictures of ranges and an explanation of those ranges - go to site to see.)


THE BOTTOM LINE: The upcoming Winter season looks to be another average one across the Western and Central US and a potentially active one for the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Keep in mind, this is just our preliminary forecast and is expected to be edited as we trek through Fall.





Note that the predictions last year didn't materialize as predicted, so as always, take this with a grain of salt/skepticism. :shrug:

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Ho-kay....with the temp outlook I'm below average temperatures. BUT the snowfall outlook says I'm below average winter, with above average temperatures/below average snowfall. :blink:


Personally, I've been feeling I'll be in for a rough winter.

Edited by Catwrangla
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I had already heard here we are to get heavy cold snows. I will be neatening up winter clothes. If we have the October Surprise I will be putting together winter camp and solid shelter. Hopefully it wont snow much before mid December. So in the meantime will try and do what I can to make stuff ready to haul in wagon or a cheap sled as needed.


Repacking and ditty bags labelled so that things are easy to find and not lose. THINKING chinked Hogan style with Batis fencing to help dissuade bears and moose. A central fireplace with smoke hole cover I can move as needed until I can do better. I could swipe a window. Don't figure that would please the landlady but she will not be refunding rent or deposits if fiscal bankruptcy shuts. The Country down. So I think that's not too rotten. Have to have a window or two. Lol.



Even my va ICW knows I will go to avoid chaos and thug tactics. I have felt like that anyway and she knows it..


Will have to set up caches. Which will be most tedious.

THE only other options is my son coming to get me. He and. His wife need to deal with what will happen there. A 2000 mile trip even one way would be crazy.

Talk --- are very serious leaks say late October and just before elections. Also consider Israel and Iran and rage there now ongoing.

All combined will be chaos for domestic takeover/urban attacks and takeovers. Incumbent wants to stay permanently.

Heck of a scenario

But. Now probable.

so figure out what you have and get it set to use and your minds hearts and souls as you will.

I refuse to be a sitting duck. I will do what I must.

Maybe in five years or so. I can finally hug a grandchild. And help rebuild around here after we are secure again.


Faraday box up stuff each night if you can. Rogues would. Love to launch emp soon. It has been noted as a legit. Threat. This past week.


Figure out how to keep warm in any weather folks.


With my pain levels its going to suck but all that laborious work may actually help! Or I die free.


I am an independent cuss I guess. I refuse to go on an icy train in chains to some dammed camp.


So, added with real snow again. well..... it ought to keep my busy at least!



Below avg. temps and Active Winter Snows.... can change depends as the line for Severe is only 90 miles south of me and that can vary a lot northward depending on regional conditions.



Ever hear the one about the weather changing every 15 minutes?

Well, if I get to keep my apartment through winter, fingers crossed, at least they fixed the roof! But I have no way of heating it without at least electricity.


Is reviewing snares tonight. Hunting wabbits may become a favorite past time.

Edited by arby
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Have a friend who relative studies weather etc. Told her that the next 3 years are going to be dandies...if you believe that stuff. My granny used to tell me, step out your front door, if water hits you in the face, it's going to rain...LOL Oh well...with some of this hot hot hot weather and draught, what's new?

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Gee! Looks like I am in the Active Snowfall, Colder Winter zone! Well, I HAVE seen snow here before--even twice it was a moderate to significant snowfall--at least by Southern standards (4" and 11"), Will have to wait and see though. I do note that Fall has started early here but I think that is due more to the lower solar cycle than any thing else (since the solar cycle drives EVERYTHING here...:cheeky-smiley-067:

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Hmmmm.....Colorado isn't that big but they've got us chopped into 2 zones in their prediction. Looks like we're being squished between two different forecasts.. :cheeky-smiley-067:



Guess we'll just have to wait and see. More snow/sleet/rain/ is needed to survive the summers but....best for my propane bill to stay outta the sub-zeros!!! :pray:


MtRider [...fiddling with new furnace and ...it's DIFFERENT! :unsure: ]

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We had frost last night, the second of the fall season. Burrrrrr......I don't like being cold. I do feel too that it has been an early start to the fall season, mostly because of great numbers of birds that flocked together and ate on our crops.

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  • 2 weeks later...



Let me see, looks like we will have average temps, and average to above average snowfall.


For some reason I would like to see a bit more snow than we had last winter, since we didn't get much and hardly any rain this summer. We really need the above average snowfall this year. We were plowed out 2 times last winter and the second time was really not all that much.


I remember one year we had 10 inches of snow over night on Thanksgiving. I was suppose to work that day, but, there was no way I could get out on time, so called in that I wasn't going in. Now, that is the kind of snowfall that is kind of good. It brings water to the rivers and lakes. Speaking of rivers, the one across the road from us is really down. There are places you could walk across and not step in water at all. That is really bad.


Now, we will see just how the winter goes.


It has been in the 20's for the past several days when I check it around 7:00 or before. Think our high was around 67 degrees yesterday. Yes, it is getting to be fall in MN and what should we expect. :)



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According to one map (the top one) we will have below average temperatures. But, according the snow map, we will have above average temperatures and below average snowfall.


So which one do I go by???



We'll know by next March... ;)







:hug3: I don't mean to be so flippant. But it's only a guess, like every other weather predictions. My usual thought is "somewhere between them".

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According to one map (the top one) we will have below average temperatures. But, according the snow map, we will have above average temperatures and below average snowfall.


So which one do I go by???



We'll know by next March... ;)







:hug3: I don't mean to be so flippant. But it's only a guess, like every other weather predictions. My usual thought is "somewhere between them".


Actually that is what I was thinking.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Interesting news story tonight...


Apparently the Juncos are migrating early this year. We love to watch the juncos around the feeder each year. They are sweet little winter ground-feeders.


Snowbird migrates early bringing chance of snow


By Meghan Schiller


Story Created: Oct 12, 2012 at 9:48 PM EDT


CHESTERTON, Ind.--Praying for an early snow? You may be in luck--thanks to a little sparrow called the Junco!


"It comes in at the end of migration," said Brad Bumgardner, Park interpretive naturalist at the Indiana Dunes State Park. "It's all black with a white belly-- and for a lot of folks they call him the snow bird because it signals the end of fall is near and winters on its heels."


Bumgardner says the coloring of the bird even matches its nickname.


"One of the signature signs of the junco is the white on the tailfeathers," he said. "It kinda looks like snow is on his tail is coming down from the farther north."


The bird arrived earlier than usual this year and people walking through the park took notice. Amy Bobb liked the idea that a bird could predict the weather.


"Wow that's amazing that that little bird was created and could fly down here and predict snow," said Bobb. "That would be awesome."


But others like John Kirby found it all a little to hard to believe.


"I'm gonna say false because I don't know if there's gonna be snow in October..really?"





I remember snowy Halloweens. :frozen:

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