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Hurricane sandy


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I sure hope all of y'all in new England are ready, it sounds like it will be bad!!!

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The Northeast U.S. scenario

If Sandy makes landfall farther to the north near Maine and Nova Scotia, heavy rains will be the main threat, since the cold waters will weaken the storm significantly before landfall. The trees have fewer leaves farther to the north, which will reduce the amount of tree damage and power failures compared to a more southerly track. However, given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S., Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This Northeast U.S. scenario would probably cause damages near $100 million dollars.

 

The mid-Atlantic U.S. scenario

Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.

 

Jeff Masters

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2273

 

Eastern seaboard could see VERY heavy rains in next few days, even if the eye doesn't come on shore near you and you are in that area, take precautions!

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Our local news channel's meteorologist reported it to be likely impacting our area, mostly with winds and rain. We live near the river, so that has me nervous, September 2011 was b-a-d flooding in our area, dh even got caught up in flash flooding and had a water rescue for him and another guy, lots of damage, some homes are still not rebuilt yet.

 

My hopes are it ends up going out to sea and fizzling out.

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I too, have been watching the weather forecasters. Lots of scenarios, but bottom line is the "what if" that residents need to be prepared for. Even on this morning's news a newscaster said "get your preps ready", which I found quite interesting. Told MM "this is an example of what can happen, and you'll see the store shelves quickly becoming scarce or empty because people who have nothing will try to prepare with something". It would be much, much worse if something like this came without notice, catching people unprepared. I am confident that all friends here are prepared...and my concern for myself and you is...are your preps prepped? It's very frightening to think that all the work I've done to survive a storm or ??? could be wiped out by the very storm I'm trying to prepare for. We have a small "damp" basement at the homestead but we can't store anything there because of the dampness (sump pump helps...but no electricity, no pump). I'd love to have a storm shelter put in but they're so costly. Stay safe!

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I am nervous about this storm. When we left NC we left behind two of the boys. They are grown but well momma won't be there to lend a helping hand. Hopefully it will miss NC altogether.

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I am nervous about this storm. When we left NC we left behind two of the boys. They are grown but well momma won't be there to lend a helping hand. Hopefully it will miss NC altogether.

 

I know the feeling!!!! I was on vacation with hubby in Canada when hurricane Ike hit Louisiana and I had two "kids" at home. We weren't getting good cell phone coverage, so we finally crossed back into Idaho and got a hotel so I could talk to them constantly through thebwhole thing, then, I had to extend my trip because the airports were closed and finally flew into a different airport and had the son pick me up there.

 

I sure hope everyone inland remembers that if you get a lot of people coming inland, your stores will be stripped!!! That's the main thing I learned from hurricane Katrina.

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My husband is even getting concerned about the storm, apparently some people at work have been talking about it, so he called from work to say be ready to head out for what we need, since he's working all weekend it's our last chance (we only have one car, so once he goes to work, I'm home).

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Winterized the chicken coop yesterday, went to Mass, laundry done, gadgets charged up, tanks full, filling bathtub and just brought in my door wreath and autumn porch decorations.

 

The more basics preps already in place.... food, water, lights, heat, etc.

 

Ready as we can be for the effects of Sandy. Now we wait. :hidingsmile:

 

Good luck and prayers for all the other Mrs. S families in the path/region.

Edited by Cricket
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We're even doing a "modest" prep...sort of an exercise one might say. We a long way away from the east coast, but right under the cold front that's moving through. Weird things can happen...and electricity is electricity...wherever it comes from, if a storm damages that grid you're still without juice! Hang in there and "keep your powder AND preps dry"!

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I'm in Western PA. We have a high wind advisory starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing into Tuesday. I'm not liking where the map is showing the storm to track to!

 

We did our grocery shopping on Friday. DH filled the gas cans this morning. We're good on kerosene. Today, we have to take the air conditioner out of our bedroom window (the forecast is showing the highs for this week to be in the low 40s, so I don't think we'll need it anyway.) and we are bringing anything in from outside that may blow around (brooms, porch rugs/mats, ect.).

 

I'm praying our electric stays on :pray: and my oak trees (and branches!) stay where they are supposed to.

 

Our rechargeable Coleman lanterns are on charge. I dug on the car chargers for them in case we need to charge them that way later this week.

 

DH had an 8 hour written test yesterday to try to take the next step in his career. He's been studying so much for it lately that we're behind on getting the gutters cleaned. They're full of leaves. It's been raining on and off today and is windy. Our roof is high so he can't safely get up on a ladder today in this wind. That's about the only thing we could have done to prepare better.

 

I'm working on getting laundry done today. And I want to make sure I run the sweeper. And get all the dishes done up (electric well pump). And get out something to cover the deep freezer if the power goes out. Now I'm remembering I had wanted to look into freezer alarms that go off if the freezer gets below a certain temp....

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Stay safe, out_of_the_ordinary.

 

This morning I heard from my mother-in-law, she said she thought western Pa may get snow (she has a lot of family outside of Pittsburgh) but I thought I saw snow was supposed to be to the south of Pa.

 

Here on the eastern part of Pa, they're pretty much saying plan to lose power sometime tomorrow. I hope not, but I guess we'll see.

Edited by lumabean
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When I was headed home last night from Nashville (going north on I-65 towards Kentucky), I passed a convoy of electric work crews from Mississippi heading north, too. That's the direction they would need to be headed to get to the Philly/New York area. So help is already moving in that direction.

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Stay safe, out_of_the_ordinary.

 

This morning I heard from my mother-in-law, she said she thought western Pa may get snow (she has a lot of family outside of Pittsburgh) but I thought I saw snow was supposed to be to the south of Pa.

 

Here on the eastern part of Pa, they're pretty much saying plan to lose power sometime tomorrow. I hope not, but I guess we'll see.

 

Stay safe, too, Luma! Your end of the state is supposed to get hit harder than mine! I'm hearing about frantic panic buying out your way....people fighting over the last generators and cases of bottled water.

 

The Pittsburgh news channels are calling for us to get a possible rain/snow mix on Wednesday. I haven't heard anything else about snow yet. I'd rather get a bunch of snow opposed to flooding in my area. I think the worst of the wind is projected to hit my area Mon afternoon through Tuesday.

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Hatches battened. Supplies already on hand...AND we got some Trappist ale this weekend. We're covered. :happy0203:

 

Won't likely be a day off for me. Chances are very low power would be down at my office AND at home. However, no internet, no work...

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Heard up to 60. Yes 60 inches of snow in Svend. And pa se will it snow after the rain. It might. I am prepped still baking tonight. Found new hotspot for Internet by piazza shop piazza shop that is...

Scuze my er my kindle typing. West va and se pa to expect snow for sure. 5 feet. Expect flooding luma if you need to evacuee pack car and go asap. Sandy is already sending in water. Rain.surge waves in nj. The watersheds all back when combined with inland water run off too the snow could also move in after rain and certainly the cold will. Very nasty huge storm.100 yr storm. Jam about set up. Baking and getting out tarps to put with plastic tape nails. Will do up Bob and cat gear and food too. Got more Kitty treats too. Miss Macy has to have her treats. Lol

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Wewl will get 75mph winds flash flood watch on now. Expect power to go out. Just hope no real building damage. Comes then should be all right. Will check in if hotspot. Here still works. Or wont until. Restored. Could be a week or more. Oh joy. Take care don't push your luck. We want everyone ok afterwards ok?

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Praying God's mercy and protection for all our Mrs S folk.

 

 

AMEN to that! :pray:

 

Five FEET of snow in Oct???????? :blink: All the trees are still wearing their leaves. It will be a nightmare of downed trees/limbs....leading to downed powerlines and damage to whatever is underneath.

 

DO NOT GO OUT WALKING UNDER OVERLOADED TREES. TURN UP YOUR HEAT TO MELT SNOW OFF THE ROOF!

 

Sheeeeeesh, really?

 

 

MtRider [...will the electric be restored in time for elections? :tinfoilhatsmile: ]

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Praying God's mercy and protection for all our Mrs S folk.

 

 

AMEN to that! :pray:

 

Five FEET of snow in Oct???????? :blink: All the trees are still wearing their leaves. It will be a nightmare of downed trees/limbs....leading to downed powerlines and damage to whatever is underneath.

 

DO NOT GO OUT WALKING UNDER OVERLOADED TREES. TURN UP YOUR HEAT TO MELT SNOW OFF THE ROOF!

 

Sheeeeeesh, really?

 

 

MtRider [...will the electric be restored in time for elections? :tinfoilhatsmile: ]

 

I heard that the polling places have to provide back-up paper ballots in the case of a power outage, but haven't looked further in to verify that. I was wondering that myself....but would people not go vote because they assume the polling places aren't open?

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My daughter has gotten in a full blown panic, sure that the worse of what she hears for the east coast is going to hit Ohio. I know we will be drastically affected, but not quite as bad as she is picturing. ( She has us having flooding, snow, winds up to 80 miles an hour and no power for over a week. I think we are really expecting part of that. I am worried though, because we have no internet right now, and our tv is only a few channels picked up by antena. I feel like I am out of the loop with the news, and worry that she may have heard something that I haven't. We are preparing by making sure we are prepared for the power to go out. I do worry about that, because I can have the water, even the food isn't an issue, but heat is an issue that I haven't found a solution too. We are all electric and I have one small propane heater, that my brothers buried the propane cannisters for it in the back of the shed. I guess we will just take the one off the grill if we need to. I am sure the connector cables for the big tank and the heater are at the front of the shed where we can get them. Have been trying to get them to reorganize the shed, but no luck so far. My one brother doesn't want the other brother to touch it and I can't lift most of the boxes and stuff in the way by myself. We need to get that done if the weather will let us. Now that it is nothing but rain out there, there is no place to put things up to keep them dry while we reorganize it.

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Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 11' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in NYC is predicting a 10 - 12' storm tide at The Battery during tonight's 9 pm high tide cycle.
This is from Jeff Masters' Blog.
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