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Flu pandemic would kill 1 in 20 Canadians

Think-tank report warns country ill-prepared

 

James Gordon, The Ottawa Citizen

Published: Tuesday, February 21, 2006

 

An "imminent" flu pandemic would kill one in 20 Canadians and grind the manufacturing industry to a halt, a major economic think-tank predicts, and Canada is not prepared to deal with it.

 

"Border disruptions would shatter integrated production lines and could last more than a year," says the new research report from the Conference Board of Canada. "Direct medical costs could surpass hundreds of millions of dollars."

 

The report calls on Canadian businesses to get ready by reducing the risk of disease transmission in the workplace and forming plans to maintain essential business functions in the event of high employee absenteeism. It also advises companies to co-ordinate with government agencies to respond to such a pandemic.

 

The report, titled: Facing Risks: Global Security Trends and Canada, is the fourth in a series of five global economic forecasts issued by the board.

 

It notes health crises "will worsen existing inequalities in Canada," such as concentration of income and regional disparities.

 

"The continuing challenges confronting Canada's public health-care system will create profound differences between those who can afford private care and those who cannot," the report says.

 

A health crisis isn't the only thing that could drive a deeper wedge between the rich and poor, the report warns. Transnational crime will also widen the gap.

 

"Criminal organizations do not need an epidemiological disaster to enrich their coffers," the report says, putting the value of worldwide criminal activity between $500 billion U.S. and $1.5 trillion U.S.

 

"This value is likely to increase in coming years, riding the many waves of globalization -- from increasingly efficient transportation and communications networks, to the perpetuation of pockets of extremely poor governance," the document reads.

 

To protect against health and crime risks, the board suggests enhancing and tailoring social programs to certain "vulnerable populations.

 

"There is some evidence that economic insecurity and poverty in Canada will be concentrated in distinct groups, particularly among aboriginal people and recent visible minority immigrants," the organization says. "The consequences of their vulnerabilities will generate wider social ills that will affect all Canadians."

 

The six-page report also makes reference to international terrorism, saying Canada is vulnerable to attacks on energy infrastructure aimed at disrupting service to the United States.

 

"Managing our relations with the United States will be a perennial source of concern, especially since the primary market for our resources will remain the United States," it says.

 

On a global level, the board predicts: "The rise of Asia will have momentous security implications. A very cold peace will prevail and skirmishes may erupt between larger powers and their smaller neighbours."

 

In addition, more state and non-state organizations will obtain powerful weapons of mass destruction. Balances of power will keep them in check, but "the risk of dangerous accidents will increase."

 

The Conference Board of Canada did not respond to a request for an interview about the report.

 

© The Ottawa Citizen 2006