Bird flu coming faster than expected

[PlanoPa]

from www.pittsburghlive.com oct 30, 2005

fair use applies for disscussion purposes and education only

 

 

 

 

Fox Chapel researcher says bird flu coming faster than expected

 

 

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By Jennifer Bails

TRIBUNE-REVIEW

Sunday, October 30, 2005

 

 

A Fox Chapel scientist says the bird flu is coming faster than even the most worried virologists predict and morphing into dangerous forms no one is expecting.

But Henry Niman's warnings -- sounded to the international press -- have not convinced fellow researchers. Niman's detractors refer to him as a "prophet of doom" who stands to profit from his overzealous penchant for crying "Pandemic!" without proof or proper qualifications.

 

Niman has a controversial theory about how a lethal strain of avian influenza called H5N1 could trigger a global pandemic that kills hundreds of millions of people. It defies conventional scientific wisdom by saying that the bird virus could evolve into a human virus by swapping pieces of genes, not whole genes. The resulting gene patchwork could have an easier time slipping past the body's defenses, he said.

 

H5N1 originated in Asia in 2003 and killed dozens of people there. Now, it has appeared among birds in Europe. Health officials and governments are ramping up their efforts to contain the virus.

 

 

 

 

 

"The tide is turning," said Niman, 57, about the world response. "It's just a matter of whether it's turning in time, and I'm not at all confident that it is. I wouldn't be surprised if H5N1 showed up in the Americas in the next several weeks."

 

Niman's critics accuse him of testing his theories in the popular media rather than presenting research in journals that can be reviewed by other scientists. Niman has conducted dozens of online and broadcast interviews in the past year about the bird flu, but hasn't published any academic papers on the subject.

 

"Niman has spread far and wide across the Internet a series of commentaries and forum posts with conclusions and predictions that make even the script writers for the 'X-Files' seem unimaginative," writes Martin Williams, a British conservationist who studies bird migration in Hong Kong.

 

A native of Rockford, Ill., Niman earned his doctorate in biochemistry at the University of Southern California in 1978 and later held posts at Scripps Research Institute in California and Harvard University.

 

In the early 1990s, he worked as a research scientist in the epidemiology department at the University of Pittsburgh, school officials confirmed.

 

As a researcher, he developed antibodies for the flu from a single line of cells, which allows for the production of large amounts of antibodies needed for vaccines. He also developed similar antibodies for cancer research.

 

Niman later formed ProgenX, a cancer diagnostic start-up company that became San Diego-based Ligand Pharmaceuticals. He said he is no longer affiliated with the company.

 

While at Harvard, Niman said, he developed an interest in infectious disease, particularly in how viruses evolve.

 

The H5N1 virus contains eight genes. Right now, the strain does not pass readily from one person to another. But as the virus spreads -- potentially by migratory birds or human travelers -- scientists fear it will exchange the genetic material that allows it to sicken chickens for instructions on how to infect people.

 

"It's definitely going to become a human virus," Niman said. "The question is how bad it will become during the conversion. If a milder version is the one that takes over, there won't be a devastating pandemic."

 

Scientific doctrine says flu viruses exchange only whole genes, said Dr. Andrew MacGinnitie, an allergist/immunologist at Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh with knowledge of avian influenza.

 

"One person can be infected at the same time with the regular human flu and the bird flu, and whole genes get sorted together, causing a new mixing," MacGinnitie said.

 

Niman disagrees.

 

"The virus isn't swapping entire genes," he said. "It is swapping pieces of genes."

 

This process, called recombination, could create a patchwork of bird and human viruses that is better able to escape a person's immune system than a bird virus that contains a whole gene from a human virus, Niman said.

 

Niman has founded a biotechnology company called Recombinomics Inc. based on his theory that it is possible to predict how, when and where the virus will exchange bits and pieces of genes. If he is correct, it would mean scientists could create vaccines that would keep up with the rapidly evolving virus rather than trying to match outdated strains.

 

Niman has been trying to raise money for the company, and has applied for patents in the use of viral recombination. He also said he is almost ready to submit a paper that will prove his case.

 

Other scientists said they want to read it first before deciding whether his theory is valid.

 

"Recombination could happen -- it's possible -- but I don't know of any data to support it." MacGinnitie said.

 

"(Niman's) just been making claims that everyone else has got it wrong, and that may be true, but I can't tell because he hasn't published a peer-review paper," said Rob Carlson, a senior associate at Bio Economic Research Associates based in Cambridge, Mass., who studies avian influenza.

 

Niman said the longer the scientific community waits to accept his ideas, the less prepared the world will be for a deadly pandemic.

 

"The world has taken too long to appreciate the gravity of the situation," Niman said. "People keep saying, 'I don't believe it,' but by the time they do believe it, it will be too late to do anything."

 

 

 

Jennifer Bails can be reached at jbails@tribweb.com