Bird Flu: American Public Asleep At The Wheel

[gardnmom]

http://www.birdflubeacon.com/BirdFluAmeric...pAtTheWheel.htm

Bird Flu: American Public Asleep At The Wheel

American public "asleep at the wheel" while doctors and corporate leaders move to protect their families.

Laurie Grace

There has been a significant shift in the concerns of professionals with regard to H5N1 Avian Influenza (AKA: Pandemic Bird Flu). The medical community is gearing up to protect themselves and their families. There is extensive discussion of what supplies will be needed to sustain their families for 12-18 months in the way of food, water, heat, and medications. Water is a big issue because many major cities only keep 5-7 days worth of chlorine on site to sanitize their water, so when the supply chain is interrupted by 30-40% industry wide worker absenteeism, they won't be able to get it. If we don't do something now about bird flu, issues like the loss of American lives in the war in Iraq and Hurricane Katrina will be nothing more than distant memories.

According to many experts, we already have human to human transmission (H2H) of the virus and the next leap will be what is known as "sustained" H2H, which is what will catapult us into a pandemic situation. In every country that has had an outbreak of bird flu in humans, there has been at least one false negative. The initial reported cases in Cambodia, Indonesia, China, Turkey and now likely Iraq, were all reported "clusters" with likely human to human transmission which included cases that were either untested (bodies buried before the authorities arrived in some cases) or false negative cases that were excluded from the WHO statistics, which statistics eliminated the record of the cluster and the human to human transmission. Pneumonia cases frequently produce false negatives because nasal swabs are collected too late in the patient's illness and the disease has already moved to the lungs. And early pneumonia patients have not yet developed antibodies to show up in their blood, so the testing period is too late for the nasal swabs, too early for the antibodies but perfect timing for a false negative while the disease spreads.

Furthermore, "testing" is complicated. The right specimen has to be taken (preferably throat or nasopharyngeal swabs), the specimen has to be correctly transported, there must be enough specimen to test, and the test result should be interpreted in light of the patient's symptoms and his or her history of contact with infected birds or humans. And all of that assumes you have the cooperation of the people whose birds and family members are sick and dying; so that you even know about it to test them.

Medical professionals are taking precautions and have Tamiflu stocked for their families. Many pharmacists report the only prescriptions they have filled for the last three months are for doctors and their family members. And the doctors know that you have to give Tami flu in the first 48 hours for it to be effective, and that it requires up to twice the recommended dose for regular flu when you are treating bird flu. Also, the medical personnel are stockpiling their personal medications (for blood pressure, heart disease, etc.) because they know they will not be able to get their regular drugs either because of the interruption of the supply lines across the world. Eighty percent (80%) of the ingredients for America's pharmaceuticals come from off shore and 40 critical drugs are already unavailable or in short supply, according to the testimony of Dr. Michael Osterholm, an international expert on bird flu who has recently testified before Congress on the public’s need to prepare now for a pandemic.

On some of the professional blogs, there are even discussions of how to build home made ventilators (and/or order portable ones and things like hand ventilators that are used in hospitals until a patient can be put on the vent) and how to intubate patients because they all realize that after the initial wave of the pandemic, the hospitals will be full and there will be "no room at the inn." Plus, we have 105,000 ventilators in America. We will have millions needing them. For every ventilator, we will have 20 people who need it. Who will decide who gets a vent under those conditions? The rule book goes out the window and we need to plan for that now. Also, hospitals will by definition be the most dangerous place in town, not to talk about the security issues when fear and panic set in. The doctors know that when this thing hits, there will be bodies stacked in the street in America, the most developed nation in the world. There will not be enough morticians to bury the dead. These topics are becoming commonplace on blogs as those in the know are getting prepared.

There is much debate around the world about how much the H5N1 virus has to mutate before it has the ability to spread like wildfire among humans, similar to the viral strain in 1918. One well recognized scientist in the field (Tuabenberger) thinks that perhaps 25 mutations are necessary all told. Many of these mutations occurred in bird flu outbreaks in Asia, and now in Turkey virologists have discovered three new mutations. One of the mutations in the Turkish teenagers who died shows a substitution of glutamic acid with lycine, at position 627 of the polymerase protein, which the virus uses to replicate its genetic material. This particular mutation signals adaptation to humans. Additionally, it's not just the virus that is important when talking about the lethality or infectiousness of a virus, but the host. H5N1 is unique in that it can infect and kill a wide range of hosts (birds, humans, pigs, tigers, domestic cats, to name a few). It will be critical for us to follow the mutations that occur now that the virus has moved into Iraq.

Moreover, Iraq will pose unique challenges. Once the virus mutates, it is projected to be in the United States within 30 days (wherever it starts). The US currently has over 150,000 troops in Iraq and the odds of containing it in Iraq are not good. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been on the ground in Turkey the last month trying to contain an outbreak of bird flu that killed 4 people and hospitalized numerous others. Containment obviously did not work as the virus has now spread south and east to northern Iraq which borders Turkey. In Turkey, world wide relief organizations battled blizzards that forced cancellation of flights and poor roads that slowed travel into the affected areas. Imagine what it will be like going into Iraq, a country gripped by armed insurgency where there are precious few government resources to cope with something like the deadly bird flu, with already poor support for the restoration of water, electricity and other infrastructure. In the past two years 240 foreigners have been kidnapped in Iraq (some for ransom) and at least 40 have been killed. We lose troops every week to terrorists in Iraq. What makes us think the terrorists will not attack the international forces that come in to try and do the surveillance and testing to try and contain a bird flu pandemic?

In addition, corporate heads are expressing concern and asking what can be done to prepare their companies for bird flu when 30-40% of their work force will be out sick or taking care of their loved ones? They wonder how they can protect their employees so they won't be scared to come to work, and what is their duty as an employer with regard to issues like sick leave, payroll, etc? The good news in this scenario is that there is a lot you can do as an individual and a lot you can do as a company/employer to get ready for bird flu, but a "wait and see" strategy is not an option because we are running out or time.

[djmarch]

Good post Lois!

[Guest Guest]

wake up America.. it is getting closer

 

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticl...&rpc=22

 

 

[Guest Guest]

2 mutations away

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1567776.htm

 

 

[Guest Guest]

look out Miami!

 

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/13892393.htm

 

 

[cartoongirl]

I'm starting to get that feeling of sitting in a rocky boat without a paddle.

 

This is so scary you guys, even IF this thing does not go H-H. Thanks for the read.

 

Should we buy chicken now? Silly question but it's been on my mind.

[gardnmom]

Thanks for the updates westbrook.

His warning about ports is applicable to the entire east and west coast.

[twilap]

We have been stocking up our freezer on chicken when it goes on sale. I hope to can some of it soon and then buy some more for the freezer. Just in case...it is something we eat anyways!

[Guest Guest]

Deblyn,

 

Vallarta Market has a wonderful meat market inside the store. Not sure if you have ever been in one or not. Their Chicken Leg quarters are $0.79 cents a pound but when on sale they go down to $0.59 cents a pound. Their Breast meat on sale is $0.99 cents a pound.

 

I buy beef liver to dry for my dogs to treat training, and can get it for $0.99 cents a pound but I can get 20 pounds at a time.

 

They have a nice produce department, but I have to laugh.. everything is a $1.00! like, 5 bunches of cilantro for a $1.00, 4 bunches of green onions for $1.00, 3 pounds of lemons for $1.00.

 

Here is the link to find one nearest to you

http://www.vallartasupermarket.com/

 

This store is awe some ladies, but alas it is currently only a So. California store.

 

 

I just picked up 30 pounds of quarters. They each weigh about 1 pound so that equals about 30 pieces. I have them package them into 10 pound bags but they are happy to wrap it anyway you would like. I will freeze them and when I have the time go back thaw and can.

 

I am canning lots of chicken now before the BF hits our side of the world.. once it does, I won't purchase store bought chicken and then start doing my own.. on an as needed basis.

 

 

[twilap]

Westbrook,

 

I didn't think we had a Vallarta here, but guess what, they are going to be opening a store here really soon!

 

Thanks for that info!