The parallels between the 2009 pandemic and the 1918 pandemic are striking

[CoM]

Delayed Pandemic 6 Designation Raises Pandemic Concerns

 

 

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06110901..._6_Delayed.html

 

June 11, 2009

 

 

The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a global flu pandemic after holding an emergency meeting, according to reports.

It means the swine flu virus is spreading in at least two regions of the world with rising cases being seen in the UK, Australia, Japan and Chile.

 

The above comments describe the decision of WHO to raise the pandemic level from 5 to 6, the highest level. Thus, the 2009 pandemic is the first since 1968, when H3N2 replaced H2N2, which had replaced H1N1 in 1957.

 

However, the 2009 pandemic involves swine H1N1, and the last time swine H1N1 moved into a human population was in 1918.

 

The parallels between the 2009 pandemic and the 1918 pandemic are striking; Both began as a mild infection in the spring and targeted previously healthy young adults. In the fall of 1918, the virus was much more deadly, leading to the death of 20-50 million people, most of which were previously healthy young adults.

 

In 2009, a similar pattern was seen in Mexico in mid-April. At the same time the swine H1N1 was detected in children in southern California. However, the patients in southern California were over 100 miles apart and had no relationship with each other, or contact with swine. Thus, it was clear that in later March / early April, there was sustained community transmission in the United States and Mexico. Shortly thereafter, sequence analysis demonstrated that the H1N1 in both countries was the same (a swine H1N1 that had a human PB1, avian PB2, and swine origins for the six remaining gene segments).

 

Under the earlier pandemic phasing system, the discovery of sustained transmission would have generated a phase 6 designation two months ago. The earlier system defined phase 3,4, and 5 by increased transmission, and phase 6 represented sustained transmission, which was unlikely to be halted.

 

The new system moved sustained transmission down to phase 4 and then defined phase 5 and 6 as geographical spread due to the sustained transmission, which was a minor variation of the sustained transmission theme.

 

The new system also led to surveillance at airports, long after the virus had spread worldwide (see updated map). However, countries largely missed the internal spread because efforts were focused on border entry. Since the virus produced mild symptoms, the internal spread was largely missed and as surveillance moves toward more widespread detection the extent of the earlier spread nwill be clear.

 

It was this focus on airports that minimized the data on community spread, so the two month delay had much more to do with the revised phasing and misguided testing, than the actual spread of the virus.

 

At this point, there is little that will stop the spread prior to widespread use of an effective vaccine, However, the large reservoir of swine H1N1 in a human population, involving the northern hemisphere where the virus has little completion by seasonal flu, and the southern hemisphere, where the swine virus is displacing seasonal flu, raises concerns that when the new vaccine is ready for the 2009/2010 season, the swine H1N1 will have evolved away from the vaccine, as it adapts to its new host and natural immunity in its new host.

 

Thus, the two month delay in the pandemic 6 declaration may prove to be quite hazardous to the world's health.

[Mother]

For the last few years, at least in our region, the 'flu' vaccine has not matched the flu it was trying to fight. I really don't believe the WHO believes it will this time around either. I believe they are hoping only that it will lend a small amount of immunity. In fact, it is my thought that the 'swine' flu has been allowed to spread purposely in the hopes that a lot of people will have more immunity to the 'recombined' form they fear is coming this fall. Better for us to have a mild form that might accomplish what a vaccine won't.

 

You know, of course, that much of what they are doing is aimed at the financial aspect of this flu. The models show that about forty percent of the work force will be out or gone if the flu hits as it did in 1918. It was severe enough then, it could be disasterous for nations now. They have been preparing for this for a couple years or more already. They have had trial runs and practices (mostly in fnancial institutions and in the emergency and medical fields) all around the nation to see what would happen if 40 percent of the work force was lost. The United States has a pandemic plan that is hundreds of pages long and in part reads that the military will be used to "put down insurrections" but fails to list what it will do to help (unless that has now been added). The U.S. must feel it is ready for it is changing nothing even though the pandemic level has been raised to the highest. But ready for what???

 

Only time will tell if what they did and are doing will work but I don't plan to set around and wait for "them" to fix it. I continue to make sure I am prepared not only with products to fight the flu if we get it but also to isolate as much as possible if it isn't stopped. Isolation may not work for this flu, It didn't always in 1918, but it is another step towards taking responsibility for my own life.

 

Thanks for the info, CoM

[JCK88]

The delay in declaring the pandemic did not stop WHO from putting in contracts with many companies for the vaccine. They did this in early May and again at the end of May even though the declaration only came in mid-June. What I've been reading in the trade press says that the delay in making the pandemic designation was politically motivated and that for all practical purposes we entered the pandemic stage 6 about 7.5 weeks ago. The problem in making the declaration came about because of the new system they have of reporting and designating but also because some nations balked at certain steps that would be needed to take if the designation was made. They asked for more time and got it.

 

Also, the reason the flu was worse in Mexico now and probably back in 1918 as well is that naturally occurring arsenic in the well water there makes flu symptoms more severe--no matter what strain it is.

 

The other thing to note is that all of the pandemic planning had been aimed at bird flu and that this strain, this novel strain of H1N1, was something that blindsided them.

 

Just keep abreast of all the developments. Be prepared. Wash your hands. Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. Have supplies at home and be ready.