Ambergris

What sized can?

Have you tried making banana bread out of the sweet potatoes? Poking around the internet, I find various recipes for non-sweet bread using sweet potatoes. Paleo diet bread using cassava flour, vegan bread using spelt and vegan butter, etc. I'm sure you can simplify something up.

The first dose is half the strength of the second dose. Taking the first dose only is taking one-third of the full dose. That reduces your chance what, thirty to forty percent as opposed to 94 to 97 percent (depending on where you live and who you are)? I have seen one argument for waiting at least 90 days past recovery from the virus before taking the shots to reduce reactions. I'd wait a lot longer, but I'm not in line for an early dose anyway.

EDUARDO VERDUGO Thu, February 4, 2021, 4:15 PM MEXICO CITY (AP) — Desperation mounted in Mexico Thursday as the country runs out of coronavirus vaccines, a government registration website crashed for a third straight day and restaurant workers protested virus restrictions they say are driving them into poverty. Hundreds of cooks, waiters and other restaurant employees gathered at Mexico City's Revolution Monument in their uniforms Thursday, banging cooking pots and chanting “Either we open, or we die!” The city — where hospitals are over 80% full — allows only take-out service, with open air-dining allowed at some restaurants that have outside space. But employees say that business isn't enough to keep them going. The country posted a near-record daily death toll of 1,682 Thursday, bringing the total to 162,922. Authorities also announced that about five cases of the U.K. variant had been found in Mexico, some apparently through local transmission. Mexico is scrambling to line up shipments of the Pfizer and Russian Sputnik vaccines, but no new doses are expected to arrive until mid-month. For the third straight day, millions of Mexicans who tried to register for vaccines when they do arrive were met with a non-functional website. Authorities have said the number of people seeking to register overloaded the government web page and its servers. The official advice since the site was launched Tuesday has been to keep trying. But even to find out the site wasn’t working, Mexicans still had to pass a Captcha “I am not a robot” test in English, asking them to pick out photos of objects like curbside fire hydrants that don’t exist in Mexico, or objects like chimneys that look very different in Mexico. While the site at least now loads — on Wednesday it simply returned a server error message — the holdup now appears in the link to another government agency that has to check official ID numbers. That agency spends hours “checking” registration requests, only to return a message of “no response.” “They had months to prepare for the demand that would happen, but as always, they didn't do it,” columnist Hectór de Mauleón wrote in the newspaper El Universal, describing his 20-hour ordeal of trying to get the page to work. Interior Secretary Olga Sánchez Cordero, who is filling in for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador while he recovers from COVID-19, acknowledged Thursday that “the service has experienced an overload, due of course to the great hopes of getting registered for a vaccine.” “This overload of course will not affect the vaccination, but its is important that we continue with the registration,” she said. Late Thursday, the site began to work haltingly. Authorities said so far about a half-million people were able to register. But observers noted wryly that López Obrador's administration recently toyed with the idea of setting up alternative social media after Twitter suspended the account of former U.S. president Donald Trump, with whom the Mexican leader was close. They say Twitter appears safe, however: the Mexican government can barely set up a working webpage. Authorities have said they are still working on getting enough server capacity to handle the number of people attempting to register. Mexico has received only about 760,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine, and has only about 89,000 of those left, many of which are earmarked for second shots. It expects to get more Pfizer doses by mid-month, and as many as 400,000 Sputnik shots by the end of February, but they won't be enough to vaccinate even the country's 750,000 frontline health workers and represent a drop in the bucket for Mexico's population of 126 million.

Yes, I said doctor but you're right. He was a pharmacist. Here's the less-effective vaccine Mother mentioned: On Thursday, Johnson & Johnson submitted it’s COVID-19 vaccine for Emergency Use Authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. If greenlit by the Food and Drug Administration, it could be the nation’s third COVID vaccine producer, joining Pfizer and Moderna. Johnson & Johnson said last week that its one-dose vaccine has an overall 66% efficacy rate, not as high as Pfizer or Moderna’s two-dose vaccines with nearly 95% efficacy. The advantage is that it requires only a single dose. +++(different article) Johnson & Johnson asked U.S. regulators Thursday to clear the world’s first single-dose COVID-19 vaccine, an easier-to-use option that could boost scarce supplies. J&J’s vaccine was safe and offered strong protection against moderate to severe COVID-19, according to preliminary results from a massive international study. It didn’t appear quite as strong as two-dose competitors made by Pfizer and Moderna -- a finding that may be more perception than reality, given differences in how each was tested. But the Food and Drug Administration is asking its independent advisers to publicly debate all the data behind the single-dose shot -- just like its competitors were put under the microscope -- before it decides whether to green light a third vaccine option in the U.S. Dr. Peter Marks, FDA’s vaccine chief, has cautioned against making comparisons before the evidence is all in. “With so much need to get this pandemic under control, I think we can’t ignore any tool in the tool chest,” he told the American Medical Association last week. “We will have to do our best to try to make sure that we find the populations that benefit the most from each of these vaccines and deploy them in a very thoughtful manner.” WHAT THE NUMBERS SHOW Overall, the single-dose vaccine was 66% effective at preventing moderate to severe COVID-19, according to early findings from a study of 44,000 people in the U.S., Latin America and South Africa. But it was 85% protective against the most serious symptoms — and starting 28 days after their shot, researchers found no one who got the vaccine needed hospitalization or died. WEAKER BUT STILL FIGHTS MUTATING VIRUS The one-dose option worked better in the U.S. — 72% effective against moderate to severe COVID-19 — compared with 66% in Latin America and 57% in South Africa, where a more contagious mutant virus is spreading. Scientists have been looking for real-world evidence about how vaccines work as the world races to stay ahead of the rapidly mutating virus, and welcomed the news that the J&J option — while weaker — did still offer protection. OTHER OPTIONS In large U.S. studies, two doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines proved 95% protective against any symptomatic COVID-19. But those studies were finished before the record virus surges of recent months and the appearance of the worrisome mutants, meaning such testing might not turn out the same if repeated today. J&J also is studying a two-dose version of its vaccine, but results won’t be available for several more months. THE SUPPLY J&J said it would have some vaccine ready to ship if the FDA allows emergency use of the shot, but it didn’t reveal how much. The pharmaceutical giant said it expects to supply 100 million doses to the U.S. by the end of June. It expects to file a similar application with European regulators soon.

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/21970/21970-h/21970-h.htm

One doctor has admitted he deliberately spoiled a huge batch of doses, and many batches have been spoiled through accident or otherwise.

"...AstraZeneca appears to provide strong protection three months after just one dose while also curbing spread of infections, researchers said Wednesday. British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the study supports a strategy of delaying the second shot so more first doses can be delivered to more people. Researchers also found a 67% reduction in positive "swabs" among those vaccinated – crucial news because if no virus is present, the virus can't spread. AstraZeneca has not yet applied for emergency use authorization for its vaccine in the U.S." Sounds good. Actually, suspiciously good. The UK variant has arrived in my county, with two known victims currently.

1 USA total reported cases per million population 81, 626 deaths per million 1,387 total population 332,150,930 2 India 7,774 111 1,338,012,251 3 Brazil 43,754 1,066 213,452,652 4 Russia 26,726 512 145,971,594 5 UK 56,857 1,606 68,097,051 6 France 49,743 1,187 65,359,134 7 Spain 62,298 1,291 46,765,524 8 Italy 42,772 1,487 60,409,016 9 Turkey 29,468 311 84,874,408 10 Germany 26,834 717 83,942,671 11 Colombia 41,298 1,066 51,202,832 12 Argentina 42,771 1,066 45,440,649 13 Mexico 14,446 1,230 29,731,950 14 Poland 40,374 1,002 37,821,994 15 South Africa 24,486 759 59,749,292 These are the current numbers as of today, supposedly. I'd guess more likely yesterday at best.

What 6 Of The 7 Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases Have In Common July 31, 20208:05 AM ET Heard on Weekend Edition Saturday JASON BEAUBIEN As the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage around the world, some of the largest outbreaks are in countries that fall into one particular economic category. They're not rich. They're not poor. They're middle income. In fact, of the countries reporting the most cases globally, 6 of 7 are middle-income nations. And they're not just any middle-income countries. They're some of the most influential players in the global south. Brazil, India, Mexico, Peru, Russia and South Africa are not only major emerging market economies, they're regional political powers. Middle-income countries are defined by the World Bank as having annual per capita income between $1,000 and $12,000. The U.S., by comparison (the one high-income country in the top 7), has an average annual income of $66,000. In mid-July, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa called the pandemic the "gravest crisis in the history of our democracy" as he reimposed strict lockdown measures. South Africa has now reported nearly a half-million cases of the coronavirus. Health officials project cases to continue to rise at least into September. And the impact of the pandemic goes far beyond the number of sick or dead. South Africa's borders remain closed. Nonessential workplaces remain shut. The country's official unemployment rate, which had been in the mid-20% range, was pushed above 30% by the pandemic. Indeed, the strain on countries in the middle-income category is tremendous. And the number of people affected is huge. According to the World Bank, 75% of the world's population live in middle-income countries. Collectively over the past decade, these countries have lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. Amanda Glassman, the executive vice president of the Center for Global Development, says these countries have a lot to lose in this pandemic. "Most of their populations in this group would fall back into poverty given a shock like this one," she says. For instance, Brazil's economy is expected to shrink by as much as 6.5% this year because of the coronavirus crisis. Brazil has the second-highest number of cases after the U.S. Nearly 100,000 people have died. The president and several of his top ministers have been infected. And as the pandemic continues to spread, more and more Brazilians are losing work. "Even a country like Brazil that was so wealthy, 90% of the country earned less than $10 a day," Glassman says. "I'm worried that we're setting back the process of economic and social development that has gone so quickly over the past decade," she says. "And it will take us many years to catch back up." The entrepreneurial spirit that made countries like India, Brazil and South Africa dynamic emerging markets also put them at greater risk of having large outbreaks. These are places with a lot of "hustle," as Glassman puts it. Their economies were global. Business travelers and tourists jetted in and out. They have decent domestic transportation networks offering the coronavirus or other pathogens easy avenues to spread. They have health systems capable of detecting the disease. "In India, for example, they're doing a lot of testing," says Jonathon Keymer, an intelligence analyst at the global risk management firm WorldAware. "In Russia, they're doing a lot of testing. The more people you test, the more confirmed cases you're going to have." Keymer specializes in Russia and the former Soviet bloc countries for WorldAware and has also been modeling the impact of COVID-19 in these nations. He says some middle-income countries globally look worse than others in this pandemic simply because they are open, dynamic societies and their case numbers are being reported. But that's not true everywhere. He points out that both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two middle-income former Soviet states, have reintroduced nationwide lockdowns in the past couple of weeks despite reported case numbers remaining relatively low. "And then in Turkmenistan, which is a much more difficult place to get information about, they've closed the borders and I don't think they've officially got a single case of COVID," Keymer says. "But you can bet your bottom dollar that they've got COVID." The World Health Organization has raised alarms about Turkmenistan despite its continued insistence that it has no cases. But on paper at least Turkmenistan looks like it has far less of a COVID-19 problem than Peru, which has tested aggressively and openly reported results. Peru has a testing rate of roughly 70,000 tests per 1 million people — a rate more than five times the global average. Tanzania is another middle-income country reporting remarkably few infections. The east African nation actually hasn't officially reported any cases to WHO since April, when the president declared that the virus had been driven out of his country by prayer. Even with the marked differences in middle income countries — everything from governance to public sentiment to economic structure — there are certain commonalities. It is clear that middle-income countries face similar risks as wealthier nations for coronavirus outbreaks but have far fewer resources to deal with them. Interestingly, the relative wealth of a middle-income country appears to have little to do with how many infections it has. Deborah Barros Leal Farias, a lecturer at the University of New South Wales, says the experience of middle-income countries shows that a nation's economic status doesn't determine its success in battling this pandemic. "If you take the U.S., the U.K. and Sweden, they are also having horrible numbers," Farias says. "And then you can take a country like Vietnam or Thailand and they're having phenomenal numbers." She says the real issue in keeping case counts down — even more than resources — appears to be leadership. Of the four countries with the most cases globally — the U.S. and three middle-income nations: Brazil, India and Russia — all have conservative or right-wing leaders who espouse populist or anti-science views. In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro downplayed the seriousness of the disease as tens of thousands of Brazilians died from COVID. Even when he tested positive for it himself, Bolsonaro continued to tout the anti-malarial drug hydrochloroquine as a cure despite studies showing it wasn't effective against the virus. Ester Sabino, a virologist at the University of Sao Paulo, says Brazil never had a cohesive national plan for how to address the outbreak and she says Bolsonaro has been a distraction. "In April and May, the main discussion [in Brazil] was whether we should or should not use chloroquine instead of saying how do we stop this," Sabino says. "There was not a good plan. That's my opinion. A lot of time was spent on things that were not the key things for the control of the disease." Research by Sabino and her colleagues shows there were more than 100 different introductions of the virus into Brazil in the early days of the pandemic, mostly from travelers who had been in Europe. Then the virus spread to every corner of the vast country. Lockdowns managed to slow the initial explosive spread, but Sabino says there needs to be more focus to contain the ongoing outbreak. "There is no magic. There is no free lunch. If you want to control epidemic, it's hard," she says. "And you have to work a lot. We can't think about politics." And that appears to hold true regardless of whether a country is rich, poor or somewhere in the middle.

The California CAL20C group of variants is being treated as small potatoes in the world medical community.

Primary variants: B.1.1.7: In the United Kingdom (UK), a variant of SARS-CoV-2 known as B.1.1.7 emerged. This variant carries a large number of mutations and has since been detected around the world, including in the United States (US). This variant was first detected in the US at the end of December 2020. In January 2021, scientists from the UK reported early evidence that suggests the B.1.1.7 variant may be associated with an increased risk of death compared with other variants. B.1.351: In South Africa, another variant of SARS-CoV-2 known as B.1.351 emerged independently of B.1.1.7. This variant shares some mutations with B.1.1.7. Cases attributed to B.1.351 have been detected outside of South Africa, and this variant was first detected in the US at the end of January 2021. Preliminary evidence suggests that the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine currently used in the US may be less effective against this variant. P.1: In Brazil, a variant of SARS-CoV-2 known as P.1 emerged; it was first identified in January 2021 in travelers from Brazil who arrived in Japan. This variant was detected in the US at the end of January 2021. The P.1 variant has 17 unique mutations, including three in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein (K417T, E484K, and N501Y). There is evidence to suggest that some of the mutations in the P.1 variant may affect the ability of antibodies (from natural infection or vaccination) to recognize and neutralize the virus. One specific mutation, called D614G, is shared by these three variants. It gives the variants the ability to spread more quickly than the predominant viruses. There also is evidence that variants with this specific mutation spread more quickly than viruses without the mutation. This mutation was one of the first documented in the US in the initial stages of the pandemic, after having initially circulated in Europe. Selected Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern Name (Pangolin) Name (Nextstrain) First Detected Cases in the US Countries Reporting Cases Key Mutations Transmissibility Rate B.1.1.7 20I/501Y.V1 United Kingdom Y 70 69/70 deletion 144Y deletion N501Y A570D D614G P681H ~50% increase P.1 20J/501Y.V3 Japan/ Brazil Y >4 E484K K417N/T N501Y D614G Not determined B.1.351 20H/501.V2 South Africa Y >30 K417N E484K N501Y D614G Not determined

We knew the mutations, which are actualizing as the British, the South African, the Californian, and now the Brazilian variants, would come. We hoped they would be less deadly because the normal pattern is that a virus is less deadly in the second wave (Spanish Flu was the exception). So here we are, facing the second big wave, and our immunity from having survived the Italian variant is not going to protect us from the deadlier variants. Some of the vaccines provide some protection from some of the variants, which is some comfort.

Where cases increased the most in the last week For the week ending Sunday, Jan. 31, 2021 CASES TO DATE ONE-WEEK TOTAL State Total cases Per 100K New cases Per 100K 1-wk chg. Louisiana 400,626 8,618 16,764 360.6 +12.6% Washington 311,597 4,092 11,399 149.7 +11.1% Pennsylvania 848,244 6,626 39,293 306.9 +8.5% Washington, D.C. 36,872 5,225 1,571 222.6 +8.3% Montana 93,949 8,790 2,297 214.9 +1.7% Alabama 459,639 9,374 18,469 376.7 –0.6% Texas 2,373,828 8,187 125,139 431.6 –1.0% Virginia 504,779 5,914 32,332 378.8 –2.4% California 3,320,944 8,405 182,569 462.1 –2.8% New Jersey 696,829 7,845 34,021 383.0 –4.4% Vermont 11,965 1,918 932 149.4 –4.5% Florida 1,721,377 8,015 71,928 334.9 –8.0% Mississippi 275,001 9,240 10,782 362.3 –8.2% United States 26,248,218 7,997 1,100,311 335.2 –9.0% Oklahoma 389,472 9,843 16,382 414.0 –9.5% Maine 39,324 2,925 2,726 202.8 –10.3% Michigan 610,138 6,109 13,392 134.1 –10.5% New York 1,415,653 7,277 83,739 430.5 –10.6% Rhode Island 114,438 10,803 4,703 443.9 –11.1% West Virginia 121,001 6,752 5,694 317.7 –12.2% North Carolina 757,526 7,223 38,714 369.1 –12.4% Colorado 396,179 6,880 9,894 171.8 –12.5% Georgia 911,073 8,581 44,348 417.7 –12.6% New Mexico 174,064 8,301 4,859 231.7 –12.7% Hawaii 25,853 1,826 699 49.4 –12.7% Maryland 354,649 5,866 13,022 215.4 –13.2% Arkansas 295,268 9,784 11,202 371.2 –13.2% Oregon 142,416 3,377 4,248 100.7 –14.4% North Dakota 97,630 12,811 813 106.7 –14.7% Connecticut 250,023 7,013 12,208 342.4 –15.2% Ohio 895,792 7,664 31,470 269.2 –16.2% South Carolina 443,386 8,612 25,061 486.7 –16.9% Kentucky 362,890 8,123 16,304 364.9 –18.1% Tennessee 727,861 10,658 19,144 280.3 –18.2% Delaware 78,071 8,017 3,496 359.0 –18.3% Wisconsin 592,140 10,170 10,763 184.9 –18.5% Utah 346,624 10,812 10,219 318.8 –18.7% Idaho 162,683 9,103 3,177 177.8 –19.6% Massachusetts 524,025 7,603 23,988 348.0 –19.8% Nevada 278,308 9,036 7,401 240.3 –20.7% Minnesota 461,807 8,189 6,818 120.9 –20.8% Iowa 319,410 10,124 6,270 198.7 –21.5% Kansas 274,685 9,429 8,032 275.7 –23.6% Alaska 54,351 7,430 1,036 141.6 –24.8% Indiana 627,058 9,314 15,643 232.4 –24.9% Illinois 1,128,311 8,904 24,562 193.8 –25.7% Arizona 758,404 10,420 35,830 492.3 –26.4% Puerto Rico 162,129 5,077 5,294 165.8 –29.3% Nebraska 190,713 9,859 3,566 184.3 –31.0% South Dakota 108,250 12,236 1,102 124.6 –31.3% Wyoming 51,912 8,970 1,014 175.2 –33.9% New Hampshire 65,695 4,832 3,358 247.0 –38.6% Where deaths increased the most in the last week For the week ending Sunday, Jan. 31, 2021 DEATHS TO DATE ONE-WEEK TOTAL State Total deaths Per 100K New deaths Per 100K 1-wk chg. Hawaii 410 29 68 4.8 +240.0% Iowa 4,901 155 413 13.1 +150.3% Delaware 1,090 112 49 5.0 +96.0% Alabama 7,688 157 1,028 21.0 +90.4% Kansas 3,779 130 181 6.2 +88.5% Washington, D.C. 913 129 41 5.8 +86.4% Tennessee 9,650 141 791 11.6 +69.0% South Carolina 7,042 137 495 9.6 +59.7% South Dakota 1,778 201 73 8.3 +49.0% Maine 590 44 46 3.4 +39.4% Montana 1,233 115 82 7.7 +39.0% New Hampshire 1,057 78 70 5.1 +29.6% California 40,926 104 4,181 10.6 +20.2% Virginia 6,464 76 386 4.5 +10.6% Kentucky 3,745 84 324 7.3 +10.2% Mississippi 6,045 203 273 9.2 +8.8% West Virginia 2,024 113 129 7.2 +8.4% United States 441,718 135 22,751 6.9 +5.1% Colorado 5,637 98 132 2.3 +4.8% North Carolina 9,335 89 640 6.1 +4.6% New Jersey 21,484 242 533 6.0 +4.1% Florida 26,915 125 1,222 5.7 +3.7% Connecticut 7,046 198 227 6.4 +0.9% Georgia 14,198 134 948 8.9 –0.6% Nevada 4,270 139 244 7.9 –1.2% New York 43,358 223 1,299 6.7 –2.0% Nebraska 1,920 99 41 2.1 –2.4% Oregon 1,957 46 77 1.8 –3.7% Texas 37,337 129 2,193 7.6 –6.8% Massachusetts 14,577 212 444 6.4 –7.7% Oklahoma 3,547 90 268 6.8 –8.2% Rhode Island 2,154 203 71 6.7 –9.0% Illinois 21,253 168 573 4.5 –9.0% Ohio 11,175 96 464 4.0 –9.2% Arizona 13,120 180 882 12.1 –9.3% Idaho 1,725 97 56 3.1 –9.7% Arkansas 4,868 161 262 8.7 –11.2% Maryland 7,127 118 262 4.3 –12.1% Wisconsin 6,434 111 244 4.2 –14.1% Pennsylvania 21,715 170 1,106 8.6 –14.9% Louisiana 8,859 191 294 6.3 –18.8% Washington 4,285 56 171 2.2 –19.0% Puerto Rico 1,829 57 56 1.8 –20.0% Utah 1,665 52 70 2.2 –31.4% Michigan 15,525 156 344 3.4 –32.8% New Mexico 3,283 157 138 6.6 –35.2% Indiana 9,974 148 258 3.8 –36.5% Minnesota 6,200 110 105 1.9 –37.5% Vermont 174 28 4 0.6 –42.9% Wyoming 596 103 25 4.3 –49.0% North Dakota 1,422 187 11 1.4 –59.3% Alaska 262 36 3 0.4 –90.0% 95,013 hospitalized on Jan 31. Looks like height of curve was 130,391 in mid-January. Where the number of people in hospitals increased the most in the last week For the week ending Sunday, Jan. 31, 2021 CURRENTLY HOSPITALIZED State Avg. this week Per 100K 1-wk chg. Vermont 59 10 +25.5% New York 8,480 44 –5.3% Washington, D.C. 248 35 –5.3% Kentucky 1,501 34 –6.2% Maine 177 13 –6.8% Connecticut 1,015 29 –6.8% New Jersey 3,127 35 –7.4% Florida 6,507 30 –7.6% Kansas 623 21 –8.0% Utah 531 17 –8.8% Rhode Island 333 31 –9.0% Virginia 2,736 32 –9.6% Texas 12,212 42 –9.8% Maryland 1,606 27 –10.4% New Hampshire 217 16 –10.7% South Carolina 2,051 40 –11.0% Colorado 694 12 –11.4% New Mexico 529 25 –11.5% Arizona 4,036 55 –11.8% Oregon 333 8 –12.1% Puerto Rico 295 9 –12.2% Wisconsin 715 12 –12.4% Hawaii 77 5 –12.5% Louisiana 1,572 34 –12.6% United States 103,460 32 –12.8% Massachusetts 1,845 27 –13.2% Georgia 4,892 46 –13.4% Illinois 2,785 22 –13.5% North Carolina 3,130 30 –13.7% Iowa 388 12 –14.3% Arkansas 997 33 –14.7% Mississippi 1,011 34 –14.8% California 17,062 43 –15.2% Minnesota 478 9 –15.7% Washington 836 11 –16.0% West Virginia 532 30 –16.2% Nebraska 351 18 –16.8% Pennsylvania 3,663 29 –17.0% Nevada 1,343 44 –17.0% Alabama 2,060 42 –17.3% Missouri 1,936 32 –17.4% Alaska 47 6 –17.5% Ohio 2,775 24 –18.2% South Dakota 151 17 –18.4% Indiana 1,828 27 –18.6% Delaware 342 35 –20.3% Michigan 1,553 16 –20.7% Idaho 228 13 –21.4% Wyoming 62 11 –21.5% North Dakota 49 6 –22.2% Oklahoma 1,319 33 –22.5% Tennessee 2,000 29 –23.3% Montana 113 11 –24.2% Where the positive test rate is highest For the week ending Sunday, Jan. 31, 2021 TESTS TO DATE ONE-WEEK TOTAL State Total tests Per 100K New tests Per 100K Positive rate Alabama 2,140,705 43,660 54,150 1,104.4 34.1% Iowa 1,253,688 39,736 18,629 590.4 33.7% Kansas 1,168,723 40,117 31,312 1,074.8 25.7% Idaho 603,115 33,749 13,486 754.6 23.6% Mississippi 1,569,489 52,736 49,155 1,651.6 21.9% Missouri 4,156,792 67,729 105,404 1,717.4 21.4% South Dakota 402,613 45,511 5,374 607.5 20.5% Kentucky 3,590,222 80,360 87,158 1,950.9 18.7% Georgia 6,452,746 60,775 243,886 2,297.0 18.2% Texas 17,399,120 60,006 837,980 2,890.0 14.9% Virginia 5,234,155 61,322 227,105 2,660.7 14.2% Oklahoma 3,184,813 80,486 121,009 3,058.1 13.5% Arkansas 2,431,538 80,573 84,150 2,788.5 13.3% Utah 2,607,358 81,329 77,562 2,419.3 13.2% Tennessee 6,437,840 94,270 148,389 2,172.9 12.9% Arizona 6,698,752 92,032 313,533 4,307.5 11.4% Pennsylvania 9,228,711 72,088 358,877 2,803.3 10.9% Nevada 2,488,049 80,777 69,014 2,240.6 10.7% Ohio 9,074,070 77,629 296,199 2,534.0 10.6% South Carolina 4,227,525 82,108 242,413 4,708.2 10.3% New Jersey 9,407,974 105,920 349,487 3,934.7 9.7% Florida 19,157,510 89,197 759,686 3,537.1 9.5% North Carolina 8,943,621 85,274 419,074 3,995.7 9.2% California 42,279,018 107,002 1,993,303 5,044.8 9.2% Louisiana 5,007,448 107,715 191,878 4,127.5 8.7% United States 312,446,708 95,189 12,877,767 3,923.3 8.5% West Virginia 1,945,579 108,561 85,242 4,756.4 6.7% Delaware 1,230,883 126,405 54,042 5,549.8 6.5% Washington 4,548,239 59,728 174,593 2,292.8 6.5% New Hampshire 1,262,157 92,825 57,136 4,202.1 5.9% Wisconsin 6,177,575 106,100 187,105 3,213.5 5.8% Indiana 7,014,523 104,193 276,182 4,102.4 5.7% New York 32,161,751 165,326 1,618,739 8,321.0 5.2% Montana 956,488 89,494 44,802 4,191.9 5.1% New Mexico 2,343,455 111,762 98,347 4,690.3 4.9% Connecticut 5,708,292 160,108 254,678 7,143.3 4.8% Colorado 5,452,050 94,674 205,139 3,562.2 4.8% Michigan 9,366,357 93,787 280,248 2,806.2 4.8% Nebraska 2,100,123 108,567 78,707 4,068.8 4.5% Maryland 7,013,154 116,003 289,652 4,791.1 4.5% Maine 1,376,597 102,409 67,583 5,027.7 4.0% North Dakota 1,345,999 176,626 20,108 2,638.6 4.0% Illinois 16,039,292 126,575 629,460 4,967.4 3.9% Minnesota 6,236,640 110,586 184,417 3,270.0 3.7% Rhode Island 2,538,794 239,653 128,769 12,155.3 3.7% Oregon 3,162,750 74,987 118,958 2,820.4 3.6% Massachusetts 13,632,898 197,793 664,974 9,647.8 3.6% Washington, D.C. 1,100,466 155,929 51,515 7,299.3 3.0% Alaska 1,500,325 205,090 46,855 6,404.9 2.2% Vermont 897,351 143,809 49,368 7,911.7 1.9% Wyoming 634,985 109,715 61,117 10,560.0 1.7% Hawaii 987,475 69,743 45,172 3,190.4 1.5%

Another surge was coming. This time, Uildéia Galvão thought they were prepared. Galvão, the lead physician in the coronavirus ward at a public hospital in the Brazilian city of Manaus, had been haunted by the wave that crashed last spring. In less than 10 days, it ruptured the city’s bewildered medical system. Sick patients were turned away. The dead were piled into mass graves. So Galvão’s hospital organized contingency plans. Additional beds were reserved, and a detailed schedule for opening them was created. But the new surge, when it came, was different. The virus had mutated, with a suite of alterations that probably made it more transmissible — and perhaps more lethal. Manaus was hit by what scientists call the P.1 variant. This time, it didn’t take 10 days to overwhelm Galvão’s hospital. It took 24 hours. Even in a city as traumatized as Manaus, the horror has been unlike anything doctors have seen. The oxygen quickly ran out. Dozens of hospital patients have died of asphyxiation. Scores more, unable to get care, have died at home. Every half-hour, one doctor said, a funeral procession rumbled toward the cemetery. “We had a plan,” Galvão said. “We increased the availability of beds. But even with that, there was strangulation.” Family members of covid-19 patients wait in Manaus to refill oxygen tanks. (Edmar Barros/AP) The humanitarian disaster unfolding in the Amazon’s largest city has shown what happens when government failures, scientific misfires and public indifference meet a new, possibly more dangerous variant of the virus that has ravaged the globe. Believed to have been circulating in the Amazon since December, P.1 now appears to be the dominant coronavirus strain in Manaus. It’s been detected in São Paulo and as far away as Japan. A first case was identified in the United States on Monday. Scientists are racing to understand the variant, one of several to have emerged in recent months. They are trying to determine whether it truly is more transmissible or has simply exploited lax behavior in a region where many people are either unable or unwilling to take precautions against the virus. The biggest unknown is whether the variant can infect people who have recovered from the more common coronavirus strain. Doctors and front-line health workers are describing a dangerous new chapter in the struggle against the virus. The shift came suddenly: It wasn’t just the surge in patients but the severity of their cases. People started arriving at hospitals significantly sicker, lungs chewed up with disease. “What has been said before, that this is a strain more transmissible but not more severe — that’s not what is happening in Manaus,” epidemiologist Noaldo Lucena said. “This isn’t a feeling. It’s a fact.” The global implications could be significant. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Manaus, a city of 2 million swelling along the Amazon River, has been closely studied by scientists. Local officials shied away from lockdowns or restrictions that have been successful elsewhere. And what policies did exist, many people ignored. The virus, believed to have infected a large portion of the population, was left mostly free to spread naturally. “Manaus represents a ‘sentinel’ population, giving us a data-based indication of what may happen if SARS-CoV-2 is allowed to spread largely unmitigated,” a team of researches wrote this month in Science. For a time, after the wave of April and May subsided, scientists and government officials wondered whether the city had achieved herd immunity. Some scientists estimated three-fourths of the population had been infected. Many believed the worst was behind the city. Daily reported cases in Manaus through July Mar. 13 First case of coronavirus is confirmed in the city of Manaus in a woman who had traveled to Britain. April 21 Manaus city authorities announce the use of mass graves for coronavirus victims due to the rapid growth in fatalities. May 29 Manaus reports more than 1,000 daily cases for the first time. After the first wave of coronavirus in Manaus, some assumed the worst was behind the city. “Why Manaus will be the first Brazilian city to defeat the Covid-19 pandemic,” wrote a group of researchers from the Federal University of Amazonas. No one is saying that now. In late December, as the holidays were set to begin, Amazonas state Gov. Wilson Lima debated what to do. The daily counts of cases, hospitalizations and deaths had begun to pick up. Scientists were issuing increasingly urgent letters, calling on officials to institute immediate restrictions on businesses and gatherings. “We need to save lives and not deepen the health an humanitarian disaster,” epidemiologist Jesem Orellana pleaded in one such missive. “Lives matter!” On Christmas Eve, Lima announced the closure of all nonessential businesses. Protesters swept the city, closing roads and setting fires. Business owners and lawmakers said the economy couldn’t survive a shutdown. A third of the city’s workers are informal — street vendors, delivery men, maids. They pushed the governor to repeal the decree. And within two days, he did. Retailers and restaurants did brisk holiday business. Massive parties — some numbering more than 4,000 revelers — gushed onto the streets. And supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro, who has made inaction the defining element of his pandemic presidency, rejoiced. “All power emanates from the people,” tweeted Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, the president’s son. “Regardless of the alarmist newscasts, Manaus has seen a large drop in deaths since June, showing collective (or herd) immunity,” tweeted Osmar Terra, a former Bolsonaro cabinet member. But that belief — which seems to have seduced many in Manaus into a false sense of security — was quickly proved a fiction. Soon after the holidays, deaths and hospitalizations exploded. The hospital system buckled. The number of confirmed coronavirus deaths at home rose from a total of 35 from May through December to 178 so far this month, according to city health officials. Daily reported cases in Manaus since October Oct. After a few months of calm, Manaus wasn't prepared when a second wave struck. Dec. 23 The governor of Amazonas state Wilson Lima backpedals on decree to shut down non-essential businesses. Jan. 10 Japan notifies Brazil that four travelers who landed in Tokyo from Manaus were infected with the new coronavirus variant. Jan. 25 First U.S. case of the Brazil coronavirus variant is detected in Minnesota. That stunned Brazilian researchers who last month published a paper in Science proclaiming that 76 percent of Manaus’s population had already been infected with the virus. “How can you have 76 percent of people infected and, at the same time, have an epidemic that’s bigger than the first?" asked author Ester Sabino. “This was a concern from the moment cases started to rise.” To understand what was happening — and why the city wasn’t protected from a debilitating second wave — the team started sequencing fresh samples, to see if any changes in the virus could explain it. On Jan. 10, Japan announced the discovery of a new variant, found to have infected four travelers from Brazil’s Amazon region. Then Sabino’s team published preliminary findings showing that the strain accounted for 42 percent of the coronavirus cases sampled in December. As viruses course through a population, they inevitably mutate, although most such genetic changes are functionally insignificant. The coronavirus has spawned countless variants around the world. But P.1 — along with variants found in South Africa and Britain — is provoking particular concern. Not only does it have a spike protein mutation that could lead to a higher infection rate, it possesses what’s called an “escape mutation.” Also found in the South Africa variant, the mutation, known as E484k, could help it evade coronavirus antibodies. Sylvain Aldighieri, a senior official with the Pan American Health Organization who has been tracking the Manaus outbreak, said there is no evidence to suggest that reinfections are driving the health crisis. “We would have many more reports,” he said. “We have to use our common sense at this point. Herd immunity in Manaus was not achieved.” Other scientists have expressed doubt that 76 percent of people in Manaus were infected. Doctors said they haven’t seen many reinfections but cautioned that it’s nearly impossible to know. The city was swept by the disease at a time when shortages in supplies meant few could get tested. That early failure has seeded today’s: Without previous testing, it’s impossible to confirm a reinfection. One case, however, has been confirmed by scientists. Dozens more are under analysis. Mariana Leite, 31, an engineer in Manaus, said she tested positive for antibodies in June and felt a “sense of relief.” She didn’t think it would be possible to be reinfected, but she said she was. Her polymerase chain reaction test came back positive Jan. 8. “It’s caused so much anxiety in everyone,” she said. “We feel like it’s never going to end.” Meanwhile, the P.1 variant appears to have widened its reach: In January, according to a sample of 48 cases, it represented 85 percent of the infections. The toll has been clear. By mid-January, the hospital system hadn’t just run out of beds, as it did during the first wave, but also oxygen. Wards had been transformed, in the words of one epidemiologist, into “chambers of asphyxiation.” Hundreds of patients were shipped out of the city, some to the other side of the country. The federal government was warned of the looming disaster, according to an investigation requested by the supreme court, but didn’t do enough to avert it. On Jan. 3, local health officials told federal officials the health system would probably fail within 10 days. Then the company White Martins, which supplies the public health system in Manaus with oxygen, warned state and federal health officials it couldn’t keep up with demand. On Jan. 14 and 15, dozens of people suffocated to death. The Health Ministry has defended its response, arguing it sent doctors and helped the city open more beds for patients. Federal Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello, now under investigation by the attorney general over allegations of inaction, has stationed himself in the city indefinitely. “We had a jump in contaminations since the beginning of January, tripling the number of people infected,” Pazuello said Tuesday. “This was a completely unknown situation for the whole world; it was very fast.” Lima, the state governor, has now closed all nonessential businesses and imposed a curfew. He has warned that the weeks ahead could be still more difficult. Demand for oxygen will be 70 percent higher in February than in the worst days of this month, he told the newspaper O Globo. It’s difficult for Lucena, the epidemiologist, to imagine how it could get much worse. “You are watching deaths every day, deaths that could have been avoided,” he said. “You choose who lives and who dies, who gets oxygen and who doesn’t.” “It’s like we’re in a horror film.” Data on cases is from the Amazonas Health Surveillance Foundation. The foundation did not report data on Nov. 6 and 7, 2020.

BRAZIL Even in a year of horrendous suffering, what is unfolding in Brazil stands out. In the rainforest city of Manaus, home to 2 million people, bodies are reportedly being dropped into mass graves as quickly as they can be dug. Hospitals have run out of oxygen, and people with potentially treatable cases of COVID-19 are dying of asphyxia. This nature and scale of mortality have not been seen since the first months of the pandemic. This is happening in a very unlikely place. Manaus saw a devastating outbreak last April that similarly overwhelmed systems, infecting the majority of the city. Because the morbidity was so ubiquitous, many scientists believed the population had since developed a high level of immunity that would preclude another devastating wave of infection. On the whole, Brazil has already reported the second-highest death toll in the world (though half that of the United States). As the country headed into summer, the worst was thought to be behind it. Data seemed to support the idea that herd immunity in Manaus was near. In Science this month, researchers mapped the virus’s takeover last year: In April, blood tests found that 4.8 percent of the city’s population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. By June, the number was up to 52.5 percent. Since people who get infected do not always test positive for antibodies, the researchers estimated that by June about two-thirds of the city had been infected. By November, the estimate was about 76 percent. In The Lancet this week, a team of Brazilian researchers noted that even if these estimates were off by a large margin, infection on this scale “should confer important population immunity to avoid a larger outbreak.” Indeed, it seemed to. The city was able to largely reopen and remain open throughout its winter with low levels of COVID-19 cases. Yet now, the nightmare scenario is happening a second time. The situation defies expert expectations about how immunity would help protect the hardest-hit populations. By estimates of leading infectious-disease specialists, such as Anthony Fauci, when roughly 70 to 75 percent of the population is immune, there can still be clusters of cases, but sustaining a large-scale outbreak becomes mathematically impossible. Still somehow, according to The Washington Post, hospitals in Manaus that had thought they were well prepared are now overwhelmed. Though many questions remain, one plausible explanation is that people who have already been infected by the virus are getting sick—and not mildly so. That possibility has been long feared throughout the pandemic, yet not previously seen on any significant scale. It comes at a time when variants of SARS-CoV-2 are being identified around the world, including a report in Minnesota of a case of the variant that has become dominant in Brazil. Although no known variants have been found to pose an immediate threat to vaccinated people, the capacity for reinfection to any significant degree would reshape the pandemic’s trajectory. Two important factors seem to be playing a role in Brazil’s resurgence. The first is that, after a COVID-19 infection, the natural immunity that our bodies develop seems to vary in strength and permanence. Protection wanes after infection with most respiratory viruses, including coronaviruses. A recent study in The New England Journal of Medicine found that health-care workers in the U.K. had very low rates of repeated infection in the first six months after getting COVID-19, but cases did occur. Other studies have found that antibodies in our blood decrease over time, so people who were infected last year may now be experiencing declines in immunity. The new wave of COVID-19 cases in Manaus occurred about eight months after the initial wave. People might have lost some degree of immunity during that window. Read: Immunology is where intuition goes to die But that’s likely only part of the picture. The second factor is the virus itself. Several newsworthy variants exist, including those in the U.K., South Africa, and California. (So it’s easy to lose track, as much alarm has been raised over their various mutations.) But the variant in Brazil, known as the P.1 (or B.1.1.248) lineage, has a potent combination of mutations. Not only does this variant seem to be more transmissible; its lineage carries mutations that help it escape the antibodies that we develop in response to older lineages of the coronavirus. That is, it at least has a capacity to infect people who have already recovered from COVID-19, even if their defenses protect them against other versions of the virus. One case of reinfection with this new lineage has already been documented, even though very little genomic sequencing is being done. The mutations that help the virus spread and evade immune responses have arisen independently in multiple places. Combined with waning immunity, these factors underscore the challenge before the world: Populations may still be vulnerable to disaster scenarios just when things seem to be getting better. It’s not yet known how many of the people currently infected in Manaus have previously recovered from COVID-19. Early data suggest that the P.1 variant is now dominant in the city, but this does not mean the variant will take over everywhere. Each place and population is unique, and susceptibility will vary based on which variants have already spread. Still, the virus’s capacity to cause such a deadly second surge in Brazil suggests a dangerous evolutionary potential. As the virus evolves, the threat is not encapsulated by any single variant. New, dangerous variants are all but inevitable when there are extremely high levels of transmission of the virus. As more people gain immunity, the selective pressure on the virus will favor the variants that can most effectively evade immune responses. Whether the Brazil variant manages to widely evade human immune responses, or whether some future variant does, the basic nature of evolutionary biology means that the virus should be expected to evolve in ways that circumvent defense mechanisms. Evidence that it is already doing so has been clear in the latest vaccine trial data. The solution, then, depends on vaccination. The immune response that the vaccines create is generally more robust than the immune response we get after being infected by a virus, and should buy a population more protected time than would a surge in exposure to the virus. Wealthy countries have time to avoid a fate like Brazil’s through immediate, efficient vaccination. In most places, however, this is not close to happening. And as of last week, only one of the world’s 29 poorest countries had vaccinated anyone at all. A study in the journal BMJ estimated that vaccines will not be available to more than a fifth of the world’s population until 2022. The coronavirus’s constantly evolving nature is a stark reminder that the entire world is in this crisis together. Vaccine distribution is more than just an issue of justice or morality. Ensuring that every human is vaccinated is in everyone’s interest, as global distribution of vaccines is the most effective way to drive down the virus’s capacity to replicate and evolve. The key will be bringing down the global rates of transmission as quickly as possible—not getting any single country to 100 percent vaccination while dozens of countries roil. “It is truly confounding that wealthier nations think that hoarding vaccines is the way to protect their citizens from a global pandemic that doesn’t respect borders,” the global-health researcher Marine Buissonnière said in a Physicians for Human Rights meeting on Friday. As the virus currently surges across Africa, some 2.5 million health-care workers are unvaccinated. “Clearly, the failure to address vaccine allocation based on health and epidemiological needs, rather than national interest, is now promising to have a dire impact on the world’s ability to achieve rapid, global control of COVID,” Buissonnière said. The coming year could be a story of two worlds undermining each other. Certain countries will approach herd immunity by vaccinating almost every citizen. Other countries could see mass casualties and catastrophic waves of reinfection—potentially with variants that evolved in response to the immunity conferred by the very vaccines to which these populations do not have access. In the process, these hot spots themselves will facilitate rapid evolution, giving rise to even more variants that could make the vaccinated populations susceptible to disease once again. In a recursive loop, the virus could come back to haunt the vaccinated, leading to new surges and lockdowns in coming years. The countries that hoard the vaccine without a plan to help others do so at their own peril.

Glad to see you feeling better, Mt Rider. I would definitely get that TV out of there, LittleSister. Make him get up and move himself around, and when he parks, park somewhere that doesn't run you pillar to post all day. I swear by those frozen water bottles Dogmom. Freeze the water half a gallon at a time to keep from splitting the plastic, and they're good to go. That was one huge jackpot, Miki! They don't come without you looking hard, though.

I'm waiting for Sunday's figures, Mother. Meanwhile, Florida's vaccine rollout has been compared to many things other than a well-oiled machine. The governor decided that the vaccines would be made available only at the pharmacy of a certain major grocery store chain (one that provides major contributions to his political party) even though that grocery store chain is not present in every county. After an uproar, he agreed to allow limited distribution outside of that grocery store in the unserved rural counties. Before the grocery store plan, when hospitals were giving shots, some of them were giving a first dose and holding one back for the second dose; he said the fact they had these doses in reserve proved they did not need any more vaccine and refused to send them any more even after being advised that all the vaccine in house was earmarked for second doses for people who already had appointments. When the feds offered use of FEMA sites to speed up vaccination, he said no, he had plenty of sites--the problem was he needed to be sent more vaccine. The feds pointed out he had not used even half of what he had been sent. He said he was holding back the rest of it for second doses, meaning either he had just learned that this was a good idea or he had been jerking the hospitals' chains for some unstated reason. Some friends of mine had a first dose of Pfizer and a second of Moderna (or vice versa, I forget which), although they are DIFFERENT vaccines with different timelines etc. because the proper medication was not available and was not expected to be available anytime soon.

I'm looking forward to seeing how these new charts (above) change in the next couple of days and how the changes match the data below: State/Territory Cases in Last 7 Days California 150,543 Texas 126,449 Florida 73,667 New York* 50,783 Georgia 48,956 Arizona 48,017 North Carolina 42,098 New York City* 39,121 Ohio 35,851 New Jersey 35,397 Pennsylvania 35,199 Virginia 34,070 Illinois 30,827 South Carolina 27,388 Massachusetts 26,550 Tennessee 21,515 Alabama 19,431 Indiana 18,863 Kentucky 18,622 Oklahoma 17,937 Louisiana 17,834 Michigan 14,364 Maryland 14,230 Connecticut 13,205 Arkansas 12,850 Missouri 12,784 Wisconsin 12,481 Utah 12,376 Mississippi 11,359 Washington 11,272 Colorado 11,031 Kansas 9,105 Nevada 8,730 Minnesota 7,825 Iowa 7,504 West Virginia 6,098 New Mexico 5,212 Rhode Island 5,133 Oregon 4,921 Nebraska 4,302 New Hampshire 4,125 Delaware 4,057 Puerto Rico 3,813 Idaho 3,624 Maine 2,817 Montana 2,276 South Dakota 1,545 District of Columbia 1,462 Wyoming 1,244 Alaska 1,219 North Dakota 935 Vermont 908 Hawaii 777 Virgin Islands 68 Guam 51 Northern Mariana Islands 3 State/Territory Average Daily Cases per 100k in Last 7 Days Arizona 94.2 South Carolina 76 Rhode Island 69.2 New York City* 66.5 Georgia 65.9 New York* 65.6 Oklahoma 64.8 Texas 62.3 Arkansas 60.8 Kentucky 59.6 Delaware 59.5 North Carolina 57.3 Virginia 57 New Jersey 56.9 Alabama 56.6 Utah 55.2 Massachusetts 55 Louisiana 54.8 Mississippi 54.5 California 54.4 Connecticut 52.9 Florida 49 West Virginia 48.6 Tennessee 45 Kansas 44.7 Ohio 43.8 New Hampshire 43.3 Nevada 40.5 Indiana 40 Pennsylvania 39.3 New Mexico 35.5 Illinois 34.8 Iowa 34 Maryland 33.6 Nebraska 31.8 Wyoming 30.7 Wisconsin 30.6 Montana 30.4 Maine 29.9 Missouri 29.8 District of Columbia 29.6 Idaho 29 Colorado 27.4 South Dakota 25 Alaska 23.8 Washington 21.2 Vermont 20.8 Michigan 20.6 Minnesota 19.8 North Dakota 17.5 Puerto Rico 17.1 Oregon 16.7 Virgin Islands 9.3 Hawaii 7.8 Guam 4.4 Northern Mariana Islands 0.8 State/Territory Deaths in Last 7 Days California 3,791 Texas 2,324 Florida 1,255 Pennsylvania 1,237 Arizona 1,115 Alabama 889 Georgia 865 New York* 782 Tennessee 760 North Carolina 715 Illinois 664 New Jersey 556 Michigan 544 New York City* 524 Ohio 522 Massachusetts 466 Virginia 369 South Carolina 345 Indiana 316 Louisiana 305 Maryland 302 Arkansas 301 Kentucky 299 Oklahoma 284 Mississippi 277 Nevada 271 Washington 271 Wisconsin 267 Missouri 264 Connecticut 250 New Mexico 189 Minnesota 145 Kansas 143 Colorado 130 West Virginia 117 Montana 107 Iowa 106 Utah 103 Oregon 92 Hawaii 79 Idaho 79 Rhode Island 77 South Dakota 72 Puerto Rico 69 New Hampshire 56 Nebraska 55 Delaware 46 Wyoming 46 District of Columbia 32 Maine 32 North Dakota 17 Alaska 8 Vermont 7 Guam 1 State/Territory Average Daily Deaths per 100k in Last 7 Days Alabama 2.6 Arizona 2.2 Tennessee 1.6 Arkansas 1.4 California 1.4 Montana 1.4 Pennsylvania 1.4 Mississippi 1.3 New Mexico 1.3 Nevada 1.3 Georgia 1.2 South Dakota 1.2 Texas 1.1 Wyoming 1.1 Connecticut 1 Kentucky 1 Massachusetts 1 North Carolina 1 New York* 1 Oklahoma 1 Rhode Island 1 South Carolina 1 Louisiana 0.9 New Jersey 0.9 New York City* 0.9 West Virginia 0.9 Florida 0.8 Hawaii 0.8 Illinois 0.8 Michigan 0.8 District of Columbia 0.7 Delaware 0.7 Indiana 0.7 Kansas 0.7 Maryland 0.7 Wisconsin 0.7 Idaho 0.6 Missouri 0.6 New Hampshire 0.6 Ohio 0.6 Virginia 0.6 Iowa 0.5 Utah 0.5 Washington 0.5 Minnesota 0.4 Nebraska 0.4 Colorado 0.3 Maine 0.3 North Dakota 0.3 Oregon 0.3 Puerto Rico 0.3 Alaska 0.2 Vermont 0.2 Guam 0.1 Identified cases of English Covid (B.1.1.7) Excuse my earlier post calling this California Covid. This isn't it. Location Cases Alabama 0 Alaska 1 American Samoa 0 Arizona 0 Arkansas 0 California 92 Colorado 9 Connecticut 8 Delaware 0 Florida 92 Georgia 14 Guam 0 Hawaii 0 Idaho 0 Illinois 9 Indiana 4 Iowa 0 Kansas 0 Kentucky 2 Louisiana 1 Maine 0 Marshall Islands 0 Maryland 4 Massachusetts 3 Michigan 17 Micronesia 0 Minnesota 8 Mississippi 0 Missouri 0 Montana 0 Nebraska 0 Nevada 1 New Hampshire 0 New Jersey 2 New Mexico 2 New York 22 North Carolina 1 North Dakota 0 Northern Marianas 0 Ohio 0 Oklahoma 0 Oregon 1 Palau 0 Pennsylvania 5 Puerto Rico 0 Rhode Island 0 South Carolina 0 South Dakota 0 Tennessee 2 Texas 7 Utah 1 Vermont 0 Virgin Islands 0 Virginia 1 Washington 3 West Virginia 0 Wisconsin 1 Wyoming 2 Tonight's numbers, January 28, 2021.Download Data (CSV)

Where cases increased the most in the last week For the week ending Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021 CASES TO DATE ONE-WEEK TOTAL State Total cases Per 100K New cases Per 100K 1-wk chg. New Hampshire 62,337 4,585 5,473 402.5 +4.0% Puerto Rico 156,835 4,911 7,491 234.6 +0.6% Iowa 313,140 9,925 7,989 253.2 –5.7% Georgia 866,725 8,163 50,715 477.7 –10.2% Alabama 441,170 8,998 18,572 378.8 –10.3% Vermont 11,033 1,768 976 156.4 –10.5% South Carolina 418,325 8,125 30,141 585.4 –10.5% Arizona 722,574 9,927 48,692 669.0 –12.0% Minnesota 454,989 8,068 8,609 152.7 –12.2% Mississippi 264,219 8,878 11,744 394.6 –12.3% New York 1,331,914 6,847 93,651 481.4 –12.5% Nebraska 187,147 9,675 5,169 267.2 –13.2% Kentucky 346,586 7,758 19,911 445.7 –13.6% North Carolina 718,812 6,854 44,175 421.2 –14.1% Delaware 74,575 7,658 4,281 439.6 –14.7% West Virginia 115,307 6,434 6,486 361.9 –14.8% Missouri 449,535 7,325 11,986 195.3 –15.7% New Jersey 662,808 7,462 35,587 400.7 –16.1% North Dakota 96,817 12,705 953 125.1 –17.0% Florida 1,649,449 7,680 78,170 364.0 –17.1% Connecticut 237,815 6,670 14,393 403.7 –17.4% Illinois 1,103,749 8,710 33,078 261.0 –17.7% Texas 2,248,689 7,755 126,351 435.8 –17.9% Virginia 472,447 5,535 33,142 388.3 –18.1% Colorado 386,285 6,708 11,304 196.3 –18.3% Arkansas 284,066 9,413 12,912 427.9 –19.7% Alaska 53,315 7,288 1,377 188.2 –19.9% Massachusetts 500,037 7,255 29,897 433.8 –20.0% Hawaii 25,154 1,777 801 56.6 –20.8% United States 25,147,907 7,662 1,208,608 368.2 –20.8% Indiana 611,415 9,082 20,830 309.4 –21.6% Michigan 596,746 5,975 14,961 149.8 –22.2% Rhode Island 109,735 10,359 5,292 499.5 –22.5% Oklahoma 373,090 9,429 18,111 457.7 –23.3% Pennsylvania 808,951 6,319 36,204 282.8 –23.4% Kansas 266,653 9,153 10,519 361.1 –23.8% Maryland 341,627 5,651 15,009 248.3 –24.1% Ohio 864,322 7,394 37,568 321.4 –24.4% Tennessee 708,717 10,378 23,396 342.6 –25.6% New Mexico 169,205 8,070 5,568 265.5 –25.6% Wisconsin 581,377 9,985 13,211 226.9 –26.2% Montana 91,652 8,575 2,259 211.4 –26.4% South Dakota 107,148 12,112 1,604 181.3 –27.9% Nevada 270,907 8,795 9,334 303.0 –28.2% Maine 36,598 2,723 3,039 226.1 –28.7% Utah 336,405 10,493 12,568 392.0 –29.5% Washington, D.C. 35,301 5,002 1,450 205.5 –29.6% California 3,138,375 7,943 187,913 475.6 –32.2% Louisiana 383,862 8,257 14,882 320.1 –32.8% Idaho 159,506 8,926 3,952 221.1 –32.9% Oregon 138,168 3,276 4,963 117.7 –34.0% Wyoming 50,898 8,794 1,535 265.2 –39.4% Washington 300,198 3,942 10,259 134.7 –44.1%

Where the positive test rate is highest For the week ending Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021 TESTS TO DATE ONE-WEEK TOTAL State Total tests Per 100K New tests Per 100K Positive rate Iowa 1,235,059 39,145 18,366 582.1 43.5% Alabama 2,086,555 42,555 57,067 1,163.9 32.5% Pennsylvania 4,362,597 34,078 123,791 967.0 29.2% Idaho 589,629 32,994 13,621 762.2 29.0% Kansas 1,137,411 39,042 37,046 1,271.6 28.4% South Dakota 397,239 44,903 5,817 657.5 27.6% Mississippi 1,520,334 51,084 44,933 1,509.8 26.1% Kentucky 3,503,064 78,409 102,323 2,290.3 19.5% Georgia 6,208,860 58,478 283,419 2,669.4 17.9% Utah 2,529,796 78,909 71,063 2,216.6 17.7% Arkansas 2,347,388 77,785 74,690 2,475.0 17.3% Oklahoma 3,063,804 77,428 107,825 2,724.9 16.8% Virginia 5,007,050 58,661 199,654 2,339.1 16.6% Texas 16,561,140 57,116 843,119 2,907.7 15.0% Tennessee 6,289,451 92,097 161,393 2,363.3 14.5% Arizona 6,385,219 87,725 355,699 4,886.8 13.7% Ohio 8,777,871 75,095 299,834 2,565.1 12.5% South Carolina 3,985,112 77,400 271,204 5,267.4 11.1% Florida 18,397,824 85,660 743,740 3,462.8 10.5% Nevada 2,419,035 78,536 89,359 2,901.1 10.4% Missouri 4,051,388 66,011 117,932 1,921.5 10.2% North Carolina 8,524,547 81,278 437,118 4,167.8 10.1% New Jersey 9,058,487 101,985 370,554 4,171.9 9.6% New Hampshire 1,205,021 88,623 58,444 4,298.3 9.4% California 40,285,715 101,958 2,057,100 5,206.2 9.1% Louisiana 4,815,570 103,588 177,224 3,812.3 8.4% Montana 911,686 85,302 31,958 2,990.1 7.1% Delaware 1,176,841 120,855 60,679 6,231.4 7.1% West Virginia 1,860,337 103,805 92,837 5,180.2 7.0% Wisconsin 5,990,470 102,886 192,398 3,304.4 6.9% Indiana 6,738,341 100,091 307,156 4,562.5 6.8% Wyoming 573,868 99,155 24,063 4,157.7 6.4% New Mexico 2,245,108 107,072 87,590 4,177.3 6.4% New York 30,543,012 157,005 1,563,514 8,037.2 6.0% Maryland 6,723,502 111,212 268,454 4,440.4 5.6% Michigan 9,086,109 90,981 278,495 2,788.6 5.4% Washington 4,373,646 57,435 193,813 2,545.2 5.3% Illinois 15,409,832 121,607 645,839 5,096.7 5.1% Massachusetts 12,967,924 188,145 619,261 8,984.6 4.8% Colorado 5,246,911 91,112 239,785 4,163.8 4.7% North Dakota 1,325,891 173,987 20,603 2,703.6 4.6% Minnesota 6,052,223 107,316 189,005 3,351.4 4.6% Nebraska 2,021,416 104,498 112,724 5,827.3 4.6% Maine 1,309,014 97,382 69,689 5,184.4 4.4% Rhode Island 2,410,025 227,498 130,239 12,294.1 4.1% Oregon 3,043,792 72,167 124,226 2,945.3 4.0% Washington, D.C. 1,048,951 148,630 39,559 5,605.3 3.7% Alaska 1,453,470 198,685 48,714 6,659.1 2.8% Hawaii 942,303 66,553 31,524 2,226.5 2.5% Connecticut 5,453,614 152,964 572,678 16,062.6 2.5% Vermont 847,983 135,897 42,964 6,885.4 2.3%

Where deaths increased the most in the last week (a week ago) For the week ending Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021 DEATHS TO DATE ONE-WEEK TOTAL State Total deaths Per 100K New deaths Per 100K 1-wk chg. Alaska 259 35 30 4.1 +500.0% Montana 1,151 108 59 5.5 +63.9% Hawaii 342 24 20 1.4 +53.8% Wyoming 571 99 49 8.5 +48.5% Kentucky 3,421 77 294 6.6 +30.1% Oklahoma 3,279 83 292 7.4 +29.2% Indiana 9,716 144 406 6.0 +24.9% North Carolina 8,695 83 612 5.8 +18.6% New Mexico 3,145 150 213 10.2 +16.4% Georgia 13,250 125 954 9.0 +13.8% Arkansas 4,606 153 295 9.8 +10.1% Louisiana 8,565 184 362 7.8 +9.7% Texas 35,144 121 2,354 8.1 +9.4% Washington 4,114 54 211 2.8 +2.9% Utah 1,595 50 102 3.2 +1.0% Maryland 6,865 114 298 4.9 +1.0% Virginia 6,078 71 349 4.1 +0.9% Vermont 170 27 7 1.1 +0% California 36,745 93 3,479 8.8 –1.4% Michigan 15,181 152 512 5.1 –2.3% New York 42,059 216 1,325 6.8 –3.1% Missouri 6,548 107 294 4.8 –3.9% Massachusetts 14,133 205 481 7.0 –4.0% Puerto Rico 1,773 56 70 2.2 –4.1% Florida 25,693 120 1,178 5.5 –6.1% United States 418,967 128 21,644 6.6 –6.6% New Jersey 20,951 236 512 5.8 –7.4% Ohio 10,711 92 511 4.4 –10.8% Iowa 4,488 142 165 5.2 –10.8% Rhode Island 2,083 197 78 7.4 –12.4% Arizona 12,238 168 972 13.4 –13.6% Pennsylvania 20,609 161 1,299 10.1 –15.1% Idaho 1,669 93 62 3.5 –15.1% Wisconsin 6,190 106 284 4.9 –15.5% North Dakota 1,411 185 27 3.5 –15.6% New Hampshire 987 73 54 4.0 –15.6% Connecticut 6,819 191 225 6.3 –16.7% Illinois 20,680 163 630 5.0 –16.8% Nevada 4,026 131 247 8.0 –20.8% Tennessee 8,859 130 468 6.9 –22.8% Minnesota 6,095 108 168 3.0 –23.6% Colorado 5,505 96 126 2.2 –26.3% South Carolina 6,547 127 310 6.0 –27.2% Mississippi 5,772 194 251 8.4 –29.1% South Dakota 1,705 193 49 5.5 –31.0% Alabama 6,660 136 540 11.0 –31.3% Washington, D.C. 872 124 22 3.1 –33.3% West Virginia 1,895 106 119 6.6 –38.7% Delaware 1,041 107 25 2.6 –43.2% Nebraska 1,879 97 42 2.2 –45.5% Maine 544 41 33 2.5 –58.2% Oregon 1,880 45 80 1.9 –59.0% Kansas 3,598 124 96 3.3 –72.9%

California Has Its Own Coronavirus Variant, Researchers Reveal Mary Papenfuss Mon, January 25, 2021, 3:31 AM The U.S. now has its very own COVID-19 variant and scientists believe the burgeoning strain is likely linked to the surge in cases in Los Angeles County. Two independent research groups discovered the strain in California while seeking the more contagious, possible more deadly, British variant in the state. Although the researchers found the UK strain ― B.1.1.7 ― in scattered cases in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Bernardino counties, they weren’t expecting to discover a homegrown variant. The California variant ― CAL.20C - was barely detectable in early October, researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles said. But by late December, it accounted for 24% of virus samples taken from southern California patients and about 36% of tested Los Angeles samples. The strain, scientists warned in their research report, “may be partially responsible for the magnitude of the surge in COVID-19 on the West Coast.” Los Angeles County has emerged as one of the nation’s coronavirus hotspots. By mid-January, the county reported more than 1 million COVID-19 cases and nearly 14,000 deaths. More than two-thirds of the cases have occurred since the beginning of November, which is about the time or shortly after that scientists said the California variant took off. The variant has also been detected in northern California, New York, Washington, D.C., and outside the country in Oceania. While scientists suspect the strain is more contagious, they don’t yet know if it’s more dangerous or lethal, or if vaccines will be as effective against it.

25,236,815: confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States. (That’s 491,369 more than Friday morning.) 420,516: US deaths attributed to coronavirus. (That’s 9,076 more than Friday morning.) 110,628: people currently hospitalized with coronavirus 295.01 million: The number of coronavirus tests that have been administered in the United States so far, according to researchers at The COVID Tracking Project. At least 18.5 million: The number of Americans who have received one or both vaccine shots so far.

This last page, and certainly much of the next page, appear to be more wishful thinking (or PR) than statistics. I thought you'd be interested in the foregoing, though, with which countries are listed as going up or down. Note that several countries are worse off, per capita, than we are, and remember that a lot of these countries are state-sized and have populations to match.