Ambergris

The trick to winning Plague is not to let any fatal symptoms evolve until after Greenland is infected. It also helps to start in India, since the virus is always discovered when the first country is fully infected.

That's why Ebola never got very far. It's been killing off the hosts before they could spread the virus.

I am getting conflicting information on the California variant. The name of it keeps changing, for one thing. Here's one article: Researchers warn 'the devil is already here' after analysis of California COVID-19 variant Brendan Morrow Tue, February 23, 2021, 12:14 PM Researchers in California are expressing concern over a COVID-19 variant in the state, which the Los Angeles Times reports appears "increasingly dangerous." Scientists from the University of California, San Francisco examined the B.1.427/B.1.429 COVID-19 variant spreading in California, and they say that it "not only spreads more readily than its predecessors, but also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and it's associated with severe illness and death," the Los Angeles Times writes. The researchers warned that the variant should be viewed as a "variant of concern" like others from the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil. "The devil is already here," warned Dr. Charles Chiu, who led the new analysis. "I wish it were different. But the science is the science." The California strain reportedly appears to reduce the effect of neutralizing antibodies by a factor of two, compared to a factor of 6.2 for the South Africa strain. The study also suggests it "could have greater virulence," the Times writes, noting the researchers looked at 324 hospitalized patients' medical charts and found that those infected with the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant were more likely to be admitted to the ICU, as well as more likely to die. Still, Chiu said this could potentially be a result of hospitals being overwhelmed due to the increased transmissibility of the variant, rather than the variant itself being more deadly. There are opposing views, such as by Eric Topol, who calls the California strain a media "scariant" of little consequence: Eric Topol @EricTopol · 22h There's a problem with labelling the California variant (B.1.427/B.1.429) "increasingly dangerous" when there isn't even a preprint published and we're watching dramatic descent in cases, hospitalization and deaths despite its high frequency +++++ Eric Topol is on Twitter with some interesting commentary. He's worth looking up every once in a while.

• A new study in Israel found that the Pfizer vaccine was 85 percent effective after one shot, a finding that could lead some countries to delay the second shot in order to get more people vaccinated more quickly. • The results echo research on the AstraZeneca vaccine, which has been shown to offer protection weeks after the first dose. • A separate study published today suggested that the AstraZeneca vaccine was more effective when people received a second dose after three months, instead of six weeks. The new findings lend ammunition to experts and governments, including that of Britain, which have advocated a “first dose first” strategy, which prioritizes giving as many people as possible an initial dose. But Dr. Fauci said that U.S. health officials were not willing to change their recommendations that all people receive two shots. Pfizer and BioNTech also announced today that their vaccine can be stored at standard freezer temperatures for up to two weeks, rather than five days as recommended in their initial guidelines. Distribution of doses has been complicated by the requirement that the vaccines be stored at ultracold temperatures, and the change has the potential to expand the number of smaller pharmacies and doctors’ offices that can administer the vaccine. Separately, new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the vaccines from Pfizer and BioNTech and Moderna were reassuringly safe and that side effects were rare. The agency examined nearly 14 million vaccinations and found nearly 7,000 reports of adverse events — including headaches, fatigue and muscle aches — and said that 91 percent of those cases were not serious. My colleague Katie Thomas, who covers the business of health care, told me that this rush of new studies and information is what happens when medicine begins to be used in the real world. ++++++ 91 percent were not serious they say... what does not serious mean? Because that nine percent of of the 7,000 means a lot of people when you extrapolate to hundreds of millions of people (or even billions of people) eventually getting vaccinated.

Before our fire, we had a multi-volume encyclopedia with colorful instructions on all kinds of crafts like hammock-making, macrame, silver-smithing, quilting, quilling, and so on. I thought most of it was frivolous at the time, but in retrospect, we got quite a lot out of it over the years. I wonder if I could find another copy at a reasonable price.

America Is Ignoring the Coronavirus Variants at Its Own Peril A tale of “two epidemics.” JACKIE FLYNN MOGENSENFEBRUARY 17, 2021 Let our journalists help you make sense of the noise: Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily newsletter and get a recap of news that matters. Around this time last year, we were still living relatively normal lives. Donald Trump had just survived his first impeachment, Bernie Sanders had clinched a victory in the New Hampshire primary, and Justin Bieber had released his first album in nearly five years. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, China struggled to control its outbreak of a virus we would eventually call SARS-CoV-2. Most of us had no idea how the coronavirus would upend our lives. Nearly 30 million cases and more than 485,000 deaths later, we’re beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Vaccines are working! Cases are declining! So exciting is this progress that dozens of states are opening back up or loosening restrictions for restaurants, gyms, salons, bowling alleys, and in-person schooling. Great news, right? Not exactly. Actually, we’re now in a situation that’s remarkably similar to where we were exactly a year ago. And experts are warning that now is not the time to let up. Researchers warn that their models indicate a “calm before the storm.” At least three designated “variants of concern” have made their way to the United States: B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (where it drove a surge in cases), B.1.351, which was first identified in South Africa, and P.1, which was first identified in travelers from Brazil who were tested at a Japanese airport. These variants seem to spread much more easily from person to person—around 50 percent more, researchers estimate in B.1.1.7’s case—and are possibly more deadly, though research is limited. B.1.1.7 already appears to be spreading rapidly across the country, and it shows no signs of stopping. For a sneak preview of what could happen next, scientists are looking to Denmark: Like in the United States, COVID cases there are currently declining. But unlike in the United States, Danish authorities are sequencing genomes from more than half of the country’s positive cases. As a result, they’ve been able to detect “two epidemics“—one driven by the old variants and receding, and another that’s on the rise, driven by B.1.1.7. (See chart.) Researchers warn that their models indicate a “calm before the storm.” In other words, it’s a crisis waiting to happen. Again. To better understand exactly what we’re up against with these new variants, I called Joseph Fauver, a genomic epidemiologist and associate research scientist at the Yale School of Public Health, Sarah Otto, an evolutionary biologist and a professor in the Department of Zoology at the University of British Columbia, and John Swartzberg, a clinical professor emeritus specializing in infectious diseases and vaccinology at UC Berkeley’s School of Public Health. In short, they told me that the variants are a real threat, one that was made possible by the sheer scale of this pandemic. Worldwide, more than 100 million people have been infected by the coronavirus. More cases mean more opportunities for the virus to evolve. That’s why experts say slowing the spread—by masking, social distancing, and when we’re able, getting vaccinated—is still our best option against these variants, as well as future ones. As Swartzberg put it, “We’ve got to get people vaccinated as quickly as possible because we’re in a race to protect people’s lives. But we’re also in a race with evolution of these viruses.” Here are some things to know about the new variants: The variants have all found the same “secret sauce.” Like you and me, the coronavirus isn’t perfect. As it replicates, copying its RNA over and over, it’s bound to make mistakes. These mistakes are called mutations, and most of the time, Swartzberg explains, they don’t help the virus. But over many, many replications, in millions of hosts, one of these “experiments” may be successful, giving the virus a competitive edge over its predecessors. “It starts to compete with the standard strain, and that’s the one that would be of concern,” Swartzberg says—hence the name, “variant of concern.” As SARS-CoV-2 mutates, researchers are tracking it, building a “family tree” of sorts. As a result, they know that all three variants of concern seemed to have evolved similar, beneficial mutations independently, a process called “convergent evolution” or “parallel evolution.” “Convergent evolution,” Otto explains, “implies that they’re finding a solution to the environmental challenges they face, and are converged on the same solution.” It’s like they’ve found the same “secret sauce.” So what specifically is that secret sauce? Scientists don’t know for sure, but they suspect the variants’ boost in transmissibility has something to do with the spike protein, the spike-like structures which cover the surface of the virus and allow it to infect our cells. Each of the new variants independently developed several mutations, including mutations in the spike protein. These changes, research suggests, allows the virus to attach and get inside of our cells “with greater efficiency than the standard strain,” Swartzberg says. “Once it gets in our cells, it produces billions of progeny that can infect more of our cells and can be spread to another person.” (Researchers recently identified seven other variant lineages in the US that share a common mutation that affects the spike protein, though it’s unclear if they too are more transmissible than previous versions, and the research hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed.) The variants’ rise wasn’t exactly a freak event. We gave it plenty of opportunities to evolve. As far as RNA viruses go, SARS-CoV-2 mutates relatively slowly. These mutations occur randomly across the genome, but also in a predictable and “clock-like” fashion, Fauver explains. “Every type of virus has its own mutation rate, or what we call a molecular clock.” The variants, however, are running ahead of schedule—B.1.1.7 for instance, has developed about twice as many mutations as you’d expect over the course of a year. “I like to say it had almost two years’ worth of mutations in this one year since it’s been circulating in humans,” Otto says. How this happened will likely remain a mystery. But scientists do have one well-supported theory: B.1.1.7, they think, came from an individual who was unable to mount a full immune response to it. Studies suggest that if people get infected with COVID while they are on medication that suppresses their immune system (for example organ transplant recipients, whose bodies may otherwise reject the organ transplant), the virus that replicates within their body may end up looking different than if it had replicated in an individual with a fully-functioning immune system. “They’ll sequence that virus over time,” Fauver says, “and find out that it acquires a bunch more mutations than you would expect in a normal transmission event.” The United States has only managed to sequence about 0.3 percent of cases. As a result, “We’re blind to what’s happening.” This might sound like a freak occurrence—but not so fast, Otto says. While the variants arose randomly, we also gave the virus plenty of opportunities to evolve by allowing the pandemic to rage out of control. It’s sort of like playing the lotto: your chances of winning Powerball with one ticket are slim to none. But if you purchased hundreds of millions of number combinations, your chance of winning wouldn’t be so slim. “The problem is, there have just been too many cases,” Otto says, “And so with so many individuals across the world infected, the chance that the virus will get this ‘acceleration’ goes up.” “You have bad luck when you have bad habits,” she says. Now is the time to double down on protective measures like wearing masks and social distancing. Again, we don’t fully understand what is giving these new variants a leg up on other variants floating around. “To have a disease that’s transmitting 50 percent more, we don’t even know what makes that possible,” Otto says. “Does it mean that it stays in the air for longer or that it has an easier time getting into our bodies? We don’t exactly know what’s giving it that kind of advantage.” But based on what we know so far, Swartzberg says, the transmission rate likely has to do with the virus’ ability to attach to our cells. Even with a more transmissible virus, all three experts agree, hope is not lost. “My answer is to continue doing what we know works, which is wearing a mask, social distancing, not spending unmasked time indoors with people outside of your immediate household or your bubble, what have you,” Fauver says. “My view of it is that if we have more transmissible strains than the standard strains circulating now, it means that we need to double down on everything we do to prevent getting infected,” Swartzberg says, echoing Fauver. For instance, Swartzberg says he’s considering going grocery shopping a little less often and combining trips to the pharmacy. “You just have to be upping the ante right now.” Vaccinations are also key. The faster we vaccinate, the fewer chances these variants have to potentially spread and evolve. “How can we keep our vaccines working for longer?” Otto says. “We can bring the case numbers down, give evolution less opportunity.” Data is limited, but so far, it seems our vaccines are effective against the new variants, although possibly not to the same degree as with previous versions. The discovery of the first variant was a lucky accident. But we shouldn’t leave genomic surveillance up to chance. In the UK, Otto explains, garden-variety COVID tests are designed to detect three segments in the virus’s genome, like identifying a person by looking at three of their fingerprints. But late last year, health officials started to notice that some people’s COVID tests were detecting just two of the sections. As time went on, the odd result became more and more common. It turns out that a variant, which we now know as B.1.1.7, had developed a mutation in the exact segment researchers were already looking. B.1.1.7 eventually dominated the country. “As a consequence,” Otto says, “they had hundreds of thousands of individual people getting tested for COVID that they could tell, do they have the variant or do they not have the variant? That’s why they have so much information about this variant.” The UK has also poured tens of millions into conducting genomic surveillance, giving it what Fauver calls the “gold standard” of national sequencing strategies. As of late January, the country had sequenced around 200,000 coronavirus genomes. The United States, on the other hand, a country about five times the size of the UK, has sequenced about half as many genomes, the Wall Street Journal reports. The effort to track SARS-CoV-2 variants in the US is also less centralized, Fauver says, happening on more of an “ad hoc” basis among academic institutions and state health departments. Since the beginning of this pandemic, the UK has sequenced around six percent of all its cases. The United States has only managed to sequence about 0.3 percent of cases. As a result, Swartzberg says, “We’re blind to what’s happening.” Without a robust national surveillance program, we’re not only failing to monitor the current variants of concern—but also setting ourselves up to miss future ones, Otto says. “Where are we gonna miss [future variants]? In places like the United States, with many cases and a very low rate of genomic sequencing.” The success of the vaccine also hinges on our ability to track the variants of concern. Pharmaceutical companies like Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech are already preparing to supply “booster shots” of their vaccine to combat the new variants. But if we have no idea how widespread the various variants of concern are in our country, these companies will be operating at least partially in the dark. “The more we know, Swartzberg notes, “the safer we are. We’re not going to get out of this pandemic by ignorance.” ++++++++ Population Britain: 67,886,011 people, i.e. not quite twice the population of California.

No. I'm on chrome.

Some people use Joel Salatin's grazing here. Getting the critters to stay on top of the weeds is one of the traditional practices in wiregrass/pineywoods grazing.

Countries reporting the most new infections each day UNITED STATES 77,884 BRAZIL 45,654 FRANCE 18,361 RUSSIA 14,206 UNITED KINGDOM 12,289 Countries reporting the most deaths each day UNITED STATES 2,695 MEXICO 1,043 BRAZIL 1,034 UNITED KINGDOM 583 RUSSIA 473 So far 82 countries have begun vaccinating people for the coronavirus and have given at least 183,206,000 doses. Gibraltar leads the world and has administered enough vaccine doses for 39% of its population, assuming every person needs two doses. Israel comes second, and the United Arab Emirates third. From Reuters: Researchers on Wednesday urged governments to delay administering the second dose of Pfizer Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine, which they said had an efficacy of 92.6% after the first dose. They cautioned that there may be uncertainty about the duration of protection with a single dose, but said that the administration of the second dose a month after the first provided “little added benefit in the short term”. Pfizer says South African variant could significantly reduce vaccine protection A laboratory study suggests that the South African variant of the coronavirus may reduce antibody protection from the Pfizer Inc/BioNTech vaccine by two-thirds, and it is not clear if the shot will be effective against the mutation, the companies said on Wednesday. The study found the vaccine was still able to neutralize the virus and there is not yet evidence from trials in people that the variant reduces vaccine protection, the companies said. Still, they are making investments and talking to regulators about developing an updated version of their mRNA vaccine or a booster shot, if needed. ++++++++++++ South Korea will almost certainly miss its goal of vaccinating 80% of its population to reach coronavirus “herd immunity” by November, the head of a doctors’ association whose advice helped the country contain the pandemic’s first wave said on Wednesday. The vaccination programme is due to start next week, after a procurement process that has drawn complaints at home for being slower than many abroad. The government now aims to immunize close to 44 million people - four in five of the population - by October to reach herd immunity four weeks later when vaccine antibodies will have been formed. The government’s plans calls for each physician to diagnose and vaccinate 150 patients a day. COVID-19 breath test shows promise in study ++++++++++++++ A commercially available electronic “nose” manufactured by Dutch company Breathomix can tell when a person does not have COVID-19 and would be a useful screening tool, researchers have found. Studying more than 4,500 individuals who came to coronavirus test facilities in the Netherlands between August and December 2020, the device was able to reliably rule out infection - with or without symptoms - in 70% to 75% of all individuals tested, with results available within seconds.

whoo!

Where the number of people in hospitals increased the most in the last week (And the good news is--ta da! nowhere!) For the week ending Sunday, Feb. 14, 2021 CURRENTLY HOSPITALIZED State Avg. this week Per 100K 1-wk chg. New York 7,296 38 –8.0% Arizona 2,515 35 –23.7% Georgia 3,507 33 –17.0% Washington, D.C. 218 31 –9.5% Texas 8,858 31 –15.4% New Jersey 2,659 30 –8.2% Nevada 891 29 –19.7% California 10,956 28 –21.9% South Carolina 1,394 27 –17.8% Alabama 1,313 27 –23.0% Delaware 250 26 –17.2% Kentucky 1,120 25 –14.6% Virginia 2,126 25 –12.2% Missouri 1,501 25 –11.4% Arkansas 724 24 –12.6% Mississippi 710 24 –20.6% Florida 4,986 23 –12.3% United States 74,034 23 –16.2% Louisiana 1,039 22 –21.3% Rhode Island 232 22 –21.6% Maryland 1,275 21 –11.5% North Carolina 2,204 21 –15.4% Oklahoma 823 21 –19.4% Connecticut 738 21 –14.0% Pennsylvania 2,656 21 –14.8% West Virginia 356 20 –14.0% Tennessee 1,357 20 –14.3% Massachusetts 1,279 19 –17.4% Indiana 1,192 18 –20.3% New Mexico 359 17 –19.1% Ohio 1,847 16 –18.3% Illinois 1,985 16 –15.4% Kansas 348 12 –28.2% Nebraska 227 12 –21.7% South Dakota 98 11 –21.0% Michigan 1,099 11 –18.6% Utah 346 11 –21.4% New Hampshire 143 11 –27.4% Idaho 182 10 –5.7% Montana 101 10 –8.2% Washington 711 9 –9.5% Colorado 507 9 –11.4% Vermont 55 9 –12.7% Iowa 275 9 –23.0% Wisconsin 486 8 –23.2% Maine 108 8 –25.0% Puerto Rico 242 8 –13.6% Wyoming 42 7 –12.5% Minnesota 324 6 –13.4% Oregon 240 6 –18.4% North Dakota 38 5 –5.0% Alaska 35 5 –20.5% Hawaii 53 4 –13.1% Where the positive test rate is highest For the week ending Sunday, Feb. 14, 2021 TESTS TO DATE ONE-WEEK TOTAL State Total tests Per 100K New tests Per 100K Positive rate Rhode Island 2,774,464 261,900 111,702 10,544.3 2.6% Massachusetts 14,948,553 216,881 623,037 9,039.3 2.2% New York 35,036,952 180,106 1,538,485 7,908.5 3.8% Connecticut 6,214,545 174,307 255,073 7,154.3 3.1% Alaska 1,584,548 216,603 47,637 6,511.8 2.4% Vermont 966,693 154,922 36,192 5,800.1 2.1% New Mexico 2,543,345 121,295 113,018 5,389.9 2.7% Delaware 1,319,220 135,476 49,332 5,066.1 4.9% Washington, D.C. 1,169,684 165,737 34,079 4,828.8 2.6% Maine 1,497,048 111,370 58,669 4,364.6 2.2% California 45,703,217 115,669 1,708,895 4,325.0 4.0% Illinois 17,171,858 135,512 535,273 4,224.1 3.0% South Carolina 4,672,026 90,742 208,964 4,058.6 10.0% New Jersey 10,079,702 113,482 358,624 4,037.6 6.6% Indiana 7,557,530 112,259 271,709 4,036.0 3.4% West Virginia 2,085,558 116,372 68,417 3,817.6 4.2% Maryland 7,466,180 123,496 228,933 3,786.7 3.2% Nebraska 2,252,919 116,466 71,411 3,691.6 4.9% New Hampshire 1,363,148 100,253 48,958 3,600.6 4.9% Louisiana 5,338,034 114,826 163,195 3,510.5 5.0% North Carolina 9,722,096 92,697 363,339 3,464.3 7.1% Colorado 5,851,957 101,619 198,428 3,445.7 4.3% United States 335,086,712 102,086 11,222,511 3,419.0 5.7% Arizona 7,218,703 99,176 236,555 3,250.0 7.0% Florida 20,525,810 95,568 675,947 3,147.2 7.3% Montana 1,023,871 95,798 32,730 3,062.4 4.9% Minnesota 6,586,481 116,789 171,184 3,035.4 3.2% Oregon 3,384,703 80,249 113,222 2,684.4 2.8% Pennsylvania 9,799,882 76,550 340,420 2,659.1 7.0% Wisconsin 6,500,249 111,641 151,548 2,602.8 4.2% Texas 18,810,731 64,874 738,441 2,546.7 9.9% Washington 4,896,154 64,297 179,295 2,354.5 4.4% Hawaii 1,034,740 73,082 32,721 2,311.0 1.2% Michigan 9,839,545 98,525 229,624 2,299.3 3.6% Ohio 9,587,475 82,021 239,579 2,049.6 8.0% North Dakota 1,378,291 180,863 15,449 2,027.3 2.9% Nevada 2,612,420 84,815 62,354 2,024.4 6.9% Virginia 5,607,650 65,698 169,877 1,990.2 12.3% Tennessee 6,726,614 98,498 135,788 1,988.4 9.4% Oklahoma 3,371,147 85,195 77,658 1,962.6 12.3% Utah 2,739,498 85,450 62,419 1,947.0 10.7% Kentucky 3,758,264 84,121 81,963 1,834.6 13.4% Arkansas 2,584,498 85,642 55,173 1,828.2 11.4% Georgia 6,853,061 64,545 188,785 1,778.1 12.7% Missouri 4,331,743 70,579 82,212 1,339.5 6.5% Mississippi 1,648,073 55,376 38,765 1,302.5 14.9% Alabama 2,228,906 45,458 41,577 848.0 20.5% Kansas 1,217,589 41,794 20,536 704.9 22.1% South Dakota 413,448 46,735 5,985 676.5 18.1% Idaho 622,353 34,825 9,143 511.6 24.9% Iowa 1,280,992 40,601 12,831 406.7 36.4% My guess is that in Iowa, they test you if they are pretty sure you have it, while in Rhode Island, they test you if you don't run fast and far enough. Deaths in the last week For the week ending Sunday, Feb. 14, 2021 focusing on the percentage of change DEATHS TO DATE ONE-WEEK TOTAL State Total deaths Per 100K New deaths Per 100K 1-wk chg. Ohio 16,346 140 4,687 40.1 +868.4% Oregon 2,137 51 114 2.7 +72.7% Washington 4,675 61 226 3.0 +37.8% Rhode Island 2,290 216 78 7.4 +34.5% Massachusetts 15,484 225 485 7.0 +14.9% South Dakota 1,844 208 35 4.0 +12.9% New Mexico 3,529 168 130 6.2 +12.1% Arizona 14,978 206 930 12.8 +0.2% Hawaii 426 30 8 0.6 +0% Connecticut 7,381 207 167 4.7 –0.6% Colorado 5,824 101 93 1.6 –1.1% United States 485,698 148 21,787 6.6 –1.8% Maryland 7,554 125 205 3.4 –7.7% New Jersey 22,454 253 465 5.2 –7.9% Arkansas 5,265 175 189 6.3 –9.1% Florida 29,275 136 1,114 5.2 –10.6% California 47,017 119 2,864 7.2 –11.2% Alabama 9,242 189 727 14.8 –12.1% Georgia 15,871 150 779 7.3 –12.9% New York 45,616 235 1,048 5.4 –13.4% Mississippi 6,462 217 193 6.5 –13.8% Idaho 1,803 101 36 2.0 –14.3% Texas 41,494 143 1,895 6.5 –16.2% Pennsylvania 23,136 181 643 5.0 –17.4% Wyoming 647 112 23 4.0 –17.9% Utah 1,794 56 58 1.8 –18.3% Kansas 4,364 150 263 9.0 –18.3% Michigan 16,119 161 265 2.7 –19.5% Oklahoma 4,024 102 211 5.3 –20.7% Illinois 22,121 175 383 3.0 –21.0% North Carolina 10,491 100 508 4.8 –21.6% Minnesota 6,376 113 77 1.4 –22.2% Missouri 7,719 126 313 5.1 –22.7% West Virginia 2,210 123 81 4.5 –22.9% Nevada 4,709 153 189 6.1 –24.4% Kentucky 4,282 96 231 5.2 –24.5% Virginia 7,012 82 234 2.7 –25.5% Wisconsin 6,745 116 132 2.3 –26.3% Nebraska 2,002 104 34 1.8 –29.2% Washington, D.C. 979 139 27 3.8 –30.8% Vermont 189 30 6 1.0 –33.3% Puerto Rico 1,919 60 36 1.1 –33.3% Louisiana 9,292 200 173 3.7 –33.5% Delaware 1,283 132 75 7.7 –36.4% Iowa 5,236 166 128 4.1 –38.2% New Hampshire 1,133 83 29 2.1 –38.3% South Carolina 7,998 155 347 6.7 –43.0% Tennessee 10,933 160 464 6.8 –43.3% North Dakota 1,431 188 3 0.4 –50.0% Maine 649 48 14 1.0 –68.9% Indiana 12,173 181 356 5.3 –80.7% Montana 1,327 124 13 1.2 –84.0% Alaska 280 38 1 0.1 –94.1% Deaths in the last week For the week ending Sunday, Feb. 14, 2021 focusing on the number of deaths per hundred thousand people in the state DEATHS TO DATE ONE-WEEK TOTAL State Total deaths Per 100K New deaths Per 100K 1-wk chg. Ohio 16,346 140 4,687 40.1 +868.4% Alabama 9,242 189 727 14.8 –12.1% Arizona 14,978 206 930 12.8 +0.2% Kansas 4,364 150 263 9.0 –18.3% Delaware 1,283 132 75 7.7 –36.4% Rhode Island 2,290 216 78 7.4 +34.5% Georgia 15,871 150 779 7.3 –12.9% California 47,017 119 2,864 7.2 –11.2% Massachusetts 15,484 225 485 7.0 +14.9% Tennessee 10,933 160 464 6.8 –43.3% South Carolina 7,998 155 347 6.7 –43.0% United States 485,698 148 21,787 6.6 –1.8% Texas 41,494 143 1,895 6.5 –16.2% Mississippi 6,462 217 193 6.5 –13.8% Arkansas 5,265 175 189 6.3 –9.1% New Mexico 3,529 168 130 6.2 +12.1% Nevada 4,709 153 189 6.1 –24.4% New York 45,616 235 1,048 5.4 –13.4% Indiana 12,173 181 356 5.3 –80.7% Oklahoma 4,024 102 211 5.3 –20.7% Florida 29,275 136 1,114 5.2 –10.6% New Jersey 22,454 253 465 5.2 –7.9% Kentucky 4,282 96 231 5.2 –24.5% Missouri 7,719 126 313 5.1 –22.7% Pennsylvania 23,136 181 643 5.0 –17.4% North Carolina 10,491 100 508 4.8 –21.6% Connecticut 7,381 207 167 4.7 –0.6% West Virginia 2,210 123 81 4.5 –22.9% Iowa 5,236 166 128 4.1 –38.2% South Dakota 1,844 208 35 4.0 +12.9% Wyoming 647 112 23 4.0 –17.9% Washington, D.C. 979 139 27 3.8 –30.8% Louisiana 9,292 200 173 3.7 –33.5% Maryland 7,554 125 205 3.4 –7.7% Illinois 22,121 175 383 3.0 –21.0% Washington 4,675 61 226 3.0 +37.8% Michigan 16,119 161 265 2.7 –19.5% Virginia 7,012 82 234 2.7 –25.5% Oregon 2,137 51 114 2.7 +72.7% Wisconsin 6,745 116 132 2.3 –26.3% New Hampshire 1,133 83 29 2.1 –38.3% Idaho 1,803 101 36 2.0 –14.3% Utah 1,794 56 58 1.8 –18.3% Nebraska 2,002 104 34 1.8 –29.2% Colorado 5,824 101 93 1.6 –1.1% Minnesota 6,376 113 77 1.4 –22.2% Montana 1,327 124 13 1.2 –84.0% Puerto Rico 1,919 60 36 1.1 –33.3% Maine 649 48 14 1.0 –68.9% Vermont 189 30 6 1.0 –33.3% Hawaii 426 30 8 0.6 +0% North Dakota 1,431 188 3 0.4 –50.0% Alaska 280 38 1 0.1 –94.1% Remember that "+100%" means "doubled."

The dishes marked pyrex are the brittle ones and the ones marked PYREX are the tougher ones.

What they are is scary. Here's the rock, and there's the hard place.

Snakes hate gas fumes. I'm going to say this is probably a dead snake put there.

Trump Team Suppressed COVID Tests, Weakened CDC Guidance to Protect President: Report Barbie Latza Nadeau Mon, February 8, 2021, 11:13 AM Tami Chappell via Reuters Startling documents released Monday point to heavy-handed interference by top Trump administration officials last summer to downplay the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, through suppressed testing results and altered guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on reopening businesses and schools. The documents are the result of a House Oversight investigation launched in September into reports of efforts by Trump political appointees at the Department of Health and Human Services to interfere with guidance issued by CDC in order to keep businesses open, even though evidence proved it could cost American lives. The select subcommittee in charge of the investigation said Monday that it found that HHS officials sought to suppress accurate scientific information they felt could be “use[d] against the president,” according to the documents. They also found that Trump appointees with limited scientific experience “attempted to alter or block at least 13 CDC reports related to the virus.” Those altered reports are said to have produced a false sense of security pushed by the CDC that allowed businesses and some schools to open, made people feel secure in public places, and downplayed the importance of wearing a mask. According to one of the documents released, the Trump administration changed the guidance for the “explicit purpose of reducing testing and allowing the virus to spread while quickly reopening the economy.” On Sept. 11, 2020, for example, top Trump HHS adviser Paul Alexander emailed senior COVID Task Force adviser Scott Atlas about a forthcoming CDC report on deaths in young people, which Alexander claimed that, despite being true, was “very duplicitous to damage the administration.” He tried to engage Atlas to help “craft an op-ed .. disputing the reporting for on face value, it is meant to mislead,” according to the documents. In the email, which is part of the cache of documents released Monday, Alexander warned, “The timing of this is meant to interfere with school re-opening and we need to get something out fast to preempt this in the next day or so and I can work with you on it.” Alexander became the focus of public outrage in December when internal emails emerged showing he was pushing top Trump health officials to adopt a “herd immunity” strategy for the U.S. “There is no other way, we need to establish herd, and it only comes about allowing the non-high risk groups expose themselves to the virus. PERIOD,” his letter to Trump HHS public-affairs adviser Marc Caputo read. “Infants, kids, teens, young people, young adults, middle aged with no conditions etc. have zero to little risk…. so we use them to develop herd… we want them infected….”[EMPHASIS by Ambergris] Alexander left HHS in mid-September after reports emerged about his attempts to alter the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports. The new internal emails referred to Monday, according to Oversight Chairman James Clyburn (D-SC), show how the Trump administration took steps to end testing of “asymptomatic infections in low-risk people” because these tests were causing infected people to quarantine, which HHS’ Alexander complained was “preventing the workforce from working” and would not allow schools and colleges to “optimally reopen.” +++ We want them infected. As if the young people who don't USUALLY get the fatal symptoms don't pass them on to older people who do. No wonder the virus spread. And with more people having been sick, more people have died.

AstraZeneca Covid jab 'less effective against South African strain' Britain has raced ahead of European neighbours with its vaccination drive, including using the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab Sun, February 7, 2021, 6:27 AM The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine fails to prevent mild and moderate cases of the South African coronavirus strain, according to research reported in the Financial Times. But in its study, due to be published Monday, the pharma group said it could still have an effect on severe disease -- although there is not yet enough data to make a definitive judgement. None of the 2,000 participants in the trial developed serious symptoms, the FT said, but AstraZeneca said the sample size was too small to make a full determination. "We may not be reducing the total number of cases but there is still protection against deaths, hospitalisations and severe disease," said Sarah Gilbert, who led the development of the vaccine with the Oxford Vaccine Group. It could also be "some time" before they determine its effectiveness for older people in fighting the strain, which is a growing presence in Britain, she told BBC television. "We might have to put it together from a number of studies." Researchers are currently working to update the vaccine, and "have a version with the South African spike sequence in the works" that they would "very much like" to be ready for the autumn, said Gilbert. UK vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi said the government's strategy to combat the spread of the strain was to continue with its mass vaccination programme "as rapidly as possible" as well as "hyper-local surge testing" in areas where it is detected. Britain is in the midst of a massive vaccination drive, which it sees as its way out of one of the worst outbreaks in the world that has seen more than 112,000 fatalities among those testing positive for the virus. It has so far vaccinated over 11 million people using either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Oxford/Astrazeneca shots. The AstraZeneca vaccine has been the source of an ugly row with the European Union, which is angry that the Anglo-Swedish firm was unable to meet the delivery target agreed with Brussels. France, Germany and Switzerland recommend the jab not be used in the elderly due to a lack of data.

Rural community in shock after Georgia health officials raid clinic vaccinating teachers Fri, February 5, 2021, 4:52 PM ELBERTON, Ga. — This small city was still in shock Friday, days after state health workers raided the busiest medical clinic in the county and seized its Covid-19 vaccine supply because staffers had given doses to teachers. Some 470 shots of the Pfizer vaccine were confiscated from the Medical Center of Elberton, a private clinic that had been the largest provider of vaccinations in Elbert County, leaving behind just enough medicine to guarantee second doses to people who have already been inoculated. "Everything that we had tried to do up until now to vaccinate our county was just laid to waste," Dr. Jonathan Poon, who works at the clinic, told NBC News. In addition, the Georgia Department of Public Health said it would not be providing any more vaccines to the medical center for the next six months until July 27. "DPH took the action after learning the provider had been vaccinating individuals in the Elbert County School District who were outside of the current Phase 1A+ eligible population," the agency said in a statement. "There is no other reason for the suspension than what we have previously stated." But in a Jan. 29 letter to the center, the department gave no warning it was going to seize the remaining shots Tuesday. "Moving outside the phases disrupts the allocation process and creates the potential for many elderly citizens to not receive a vaccination in a timely manner," the department stated. "Upon enrollment in Georgia’s COVID Vaccine Program, you signed a COVID Vaccination Provider Agreement which stated you and your practice would not violate any state or federal rules related to the program." In an interview, Dr. Chris Rustin of the Department of Public Health, said the clinic's actions left them no choice. "Going outside of the phase in almost a deliberate manner was something that we could not ignore, and we needed to make sure that others that are vaccinating understand that we have such limitations on our vaccine supply that we have to follow a plan that's been clearly communicated." Still, as recently as Dec. 7, educators were considered by the state to be in that "essential group," Poon said, adding that they were able to vaccinate about 177 school workers before the public health department shut them down. "We felt, you know, with the state’s guidance, that teachers were a part of that group," he said. "So as soon as we were able to move to vaccinate the essential workers, that’s what we did." The first inkling that they might have run afoul of the state was Jan. 26 when the department called "asking whether or not we had vaccinated teachers," the doctor said. "And at the time we, of course, believed that that was part of the proper procedure, so we said yes," Poon said. "And in less than 48 hours, the state handed down a ruling that our vaccine status was suspended and that we would no longer be able to vaccinate individuals." The community’s reaction? "Shock," he said. Terrie Glaude, a teacher in Elbert County, managed to squeeze in her second shot just days before the department descended on the clinic. "I was very lucky not to have to worry about that," she said. She said she was taken aback by news of the raid and doesn’t agree "with the state mandate that teachers shouldn’t have been in the first wave of vaccinations. Everyone wants their kids in school, and the way to keep them in school is to let our teachers be vaccinated along with the elderly population and then move down, you know, as it’s appropriate." Marlene Lord, who is 68 and got her second dose at the clinic Thursday, said she would have gladly given her vaccination to a teacher. "Being retired, I have the ability to stay away from it more than they do," she said. "I want the kids in school. And I think the more protection there is, the better it is." Lord also said the public health department did a disservice to the community by taking the vaccines from the clinic. "If something was done wrong, you know, it should have been just corrected," she said. "People here are not out to do something wrong. They have the best interest of the community in heart. You know?" Because of the vaccine shortage, public health agencies and providers often have to make tough choices, Jennifer Kates, a public policy expert at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told NBC News. "There’s almost like a ‘Sophie’s Choice’ having to choose between some who’s senior who we know, if they get infected with coronavirus, has a much higher likelihood of getting sick and even dying, or someone who’s a frontline worker that we need in society," she said. DPH spokeswoman Nancy Nydam said they gave the clinic 30 minutes notice Tuesday that they were coming to collect the vaccines. The weekly Elberton Star newspaper was heading to the presses that afternoon when publisher Gary Jones first learned of the raid. "When I arrived, five unidentified people were in and around the room where TMCE stores its precious Pfizer vaccines," Jones wrote on the newspaper’s website. "When I entered the area, with my press badge clearly visible, I walked up to two men that were part of the party of five and asked them their names. They refused to answer." Jones watched as two of the people removed the vaccines from the clinic’s freezer and reported that a woman whose ID badge bore the name Leah Hoffacker confirmed that they were there "by the authority of the DPH." Hoffacker, according to her LinkedIn profile, is a medical countermeasures program manager at the public health department and her job is to dispense vaccines and medicines during public health emergencies. All the state health workers involved in the raid are members of the department's vaccination distribution team, Nydam said. As the department investigators secured the vaccines, Jones wrote, the medical center’s office manager, Brooke McDowell, videotaped what was going on. "Shortly after I arrived, Hoffacker asked McDowell to sign a document stating that TMCE was ‘voluntarily’ allowing this party to remove the vaccines from the ultra-cold freezer," Jones wrote. "McDowell refused to sign the document." Jones said he asked the public health department workers if they had a warrant or court order and that clinic staffers were "crying" and "pleading" with them not to take the vaccines. The department workers at that point appeared to reconsider removing the vaccines, Jones wrote. But after he returned to the newspaper to supervise the publication of the new edition, Jones said he was informed that the department workers had removed the vaccines from the premises. Jones told NBC News he is filing an open records request with the state to identify the other department workers who "ran roughshod in the clinic." The Medical Center of Elberton has filed an appeal to overturn the suspension, claiming it did not knowingly break any rules or regulations and blamed the error on "a lack of clarification from the state," the NBC affiliate reported. The confiscated vaccines were redistributed to five other providers in rural Elbert County on the South Carolina border, along with an additional 2,100 doses, the public health department said. One of them is Madden’s Pharmacy in the town of Elberton, where owner Don Piela told the local NBC News affiliate that they were currently vaccinating about 50 people per day and that confiscating doses from the clinic did not make sense. "To me, that’s kind of an issue," he said. "It’s sort of like, why would you take the fire trucks away from the fire station and put the firetrucks someplace else?" The other recipients of the confiscated vaccines are the Elbert County Health Department, Elbert Memorial Hospital, MedLink and a local Ingles grocery store. The department said, via Nydam, that it stands by its decision to suspend The Medical Center of Elberton and is confident Elbert County residents have and will continue to have more than sufficient local access to vaccine. Under Georgia’s guidelines, teachers aren’t eligible for the vaccine unless they’re also health care workers, first responders or 65 and older. But the Medical Center of Elberton began vaccinating school employees last month after administering doses to the high priority workers "but before completing the vaccination of seniors," The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported in January. "We’re not going to leave it on the shelf for it to ruin," McDowell told the newspaper last month. "The governor’s asked us to put shots in arms and that’s what we’re doing." County schools have been open because many of the 3,000 or so children enrolled in the district don’t have internet service, which would allow for virtual learning, and also rely on the schools for food, clinic Dr. J. Daniel McAvoy told the newspaper. "So we saw it as very important to get our school teachers vaccinated, and stepped out and did that," McAvoy said. "And then we saw the guidance later." Rep. Andrew Clyde, the newly-elected Republican who represents the county, declined to comment on the vaccine confiscation, his spokesman, Russel Read, said. Covid-19 vaccinations are already being provided to teachers from kindergarten through high school in 25 states and Washington, D.C., although in some of those states it’s limited to select counties, according to a New York Times survey of vaccination eligibility rules. In a separate NBC News survey, teachers are eligible for a Covid-19 vaccination in 22 different states. Georgia, however, is not one of those states on either list. Sitting in a building near the clinic that staffers had turned into a vaccination center, Poon surveyed an empty waiting room that in the days prior to the raid had a steady, but socially distanced, stream of patients showing up for their appointments. "It’s heartbreaking," the doctor said. "We poured everything in the past few months to try and make this a success." Early on, Poon said, they invested $7,000 out of their own pockets on an expensive freezer capable of storing the vaccines because they wanted to be part of pandemic solution. "We were humble," he said. "We did not expect a pat on the back. We thought that this was part of the plan." Gosk reported from Elberton, Georgia, Strickler from Washington D.C., Cavazuti from New York City and Siemaszko from Montclair, New Jersey.

What sized can?

Have you tried making banana bread out of the sweet potatoes? Poking around the internet, I find various recipes for non-sweet bread using sweet potatoes. Paleo diet bread using cassava flour, vegan bread using spelt and vegan butter, etc. I'm sure you can simplify something up.

The first dose is half the strength of the second dose. Taking the first dose only is taking one-third of the full dose. That reduces your chance what, thirty to forty percent as opposed to 94 to 97 percent (depending on where you live and who you are)? I have seen one argument for waiting at least 90 days past recovery from the virus before taking the shots to reduce reactions. I'd wait a lot longer, but I'm not in line for an early dose anyway.

EDUARDO VERDUGO Thu, February 4, 2021, 4:15 PM MEXICO CITY (AP) — Desperation mounted in Mexico Thursday as the country runs out of coronavirus vaccines, a government registration website crashed for a third straight day and restaurant workers protested virus restrictions they say are driving them into poverty. Hundreds of cooks, waiters and other restaurant employees gathered at Mexico City's Revolution Monument in their uniforms Thursday, banging cooking pots and chanting “Either we open, or we die!” The city — where hospitals are over 80% full — allows only take-out service, with open air-dining allowed at some restaurants that have outside space. But employees say that business isn't enough to keep them going. The country posted a near-record daily death toll of 1,682 Thursday, bringing the total to 162,922. Authorities also announced that about five cases of the U.K. variant had been found in Mexico, some apparently through local transmission. Mexico is scrambling to line up shipments of the Pfizer and Russian Sputnik vaccines, but no new doses are expected to arrive until mid-month. For the third straight day, millions of Mexicans who tried to register for vaccines when they do arrive were met with a non-functional website. Authorities have said the number of people seeking to register overloaded the government web page and its servers. The official advice since the site was launched Tuesday has been to keep trying. But even to find out the site wasn’t working, Mexicans still had to pass a Captcha “I am not a robot” test in English, asking them to pick out photos of objects like curbside fire hydrants that don’t exist in Mexico, or objects like chimneys that look very different in Mexico. While the site at least now loads — on Wednesday it simply returned a server error message — the holdup now appears in the link to another government agency that has to check official ID numbers. That agency spends hours “checking” registration requests, only to return a message of “no response.” “They had months to prepare for the demand that would happen, but as always, they didn't do it,” columnist Hectór de Mauleón wrote in the newspaper El Universal, describing his 20-hour ordeal of trying to get the page to work. Interior Secretary Olga Sánchez Cordero, who is filling in for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador while he recovers from COVID-19, acknowledged Thursday that “the service has experienced an overload, due of course to the great hopes of getting registered for a vaccine.” “This overload of course will not affect the vaccination, but its is important that we continue with the registration,” she said. Late Thursday, the site began to work haltingly. Authorities said so far about a half-million people were able to register. But observers noted wryly that López Obrador's administration recently toyed with the idea of setting up alternative social media after Twitter suspended the account of former U.S. president Donald Trump, with whom the Mexican leader was close. They say Twitter appears safe, however: the Mexican government can barely set up a working webpage. Authorities have said they are still working on getting enough server capacity to handle the number of people attempting to register. Mexico has received only about 760,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine, and has only about 89,000 of those left, many of which are earmarked for second shots. It expects to get more Pfizer doses by mid-month, and as many as 400,000 Sputnik shots by the end of February, but they won't be enough to vaccinate even the country's 750,000 frontline health workers and represent a drop in the bucket for Mexico's population of 126 million.

Yes, I said doctor but you're right. He was a pharmacist. Here's the less-effective vaccine Mother mentioned: On Thursday, Johnson & Johnson submitted it’s COVID-19 vaccine for Emergency Use Authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. If greenlit by the Food and Drug Administration, it could be the nation’s third COVID vaccine producer, joining Pfizer and Moderna. Johnson & Johnson said last week that its one-dose vaccine has an overall 66% efficacy rate, not as high as Pfizer or Moderna’s two-dose vaccines with nearly 95% efficacy. The advantage is that it requires only a single dose. +++(different article) Johnson & Johnson asked U.S. regulators Thursday to clear the world’s first single-dose COVID-19 vaccine, an easier-to-use option that could boost scarce supplies. J&J’s vaccine was safe and offered strong protection against moderate to severe COVID-19, according to preliminary results from a massive international study. It didn’t appear quite as strong as two-dose competitors made by Pfizer and Moderna -- a finding that may be more perception than reality, given differences in how each was tested. But the Food and Drug Administration is asking its independent advisers to publicly debate all the data behind the single-dose shot -- just like its competitors were put under the microscope -- before it decides whether to green light a third vaccine option in the U.S. Dr. Peter Marks, FDA’s vaccine chief, has cautioned against making comparisons before the evidence is all in. “With so much need to get this pandemic under control, I think we can’t ignore any tool in the tool chest,” he told the American Medical Association last week. “We will have to do our best to try to make sure that we find the populations that benefit the most from each of these vaccines and deploy them in a very thoughtful manner.” WHAT THE NUMBERS SHOW Overall, the single-dose vaccine was 66% effective at preventing moderate to severe COVID-19, according to early findings from a study of 44,000 people in the U.S., Latin America and South Africa. But it was 85% protective against the most serious symptoms — and starting 28 days after their shot, researchers found no one who got the vaccine needed hospitalization or died. WEAKER BUT STILL FIGHTS MUTATING VIRUS The one-dose option worked better in the U.S. — 72% effective against moderate to severe COVID-19 — compared with 66% in Latin America and 57% in South Africa, where a more contagious mutant virus is spreading. Scientists have been looking for real-world evidence about how vaccines work as the world races to stay ahead of the rapidly mutating virus, and welcomed the news that the J&J option — while weaker — did still offer protection. OTHER OPTIONS In large U.S. studies, two doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines proved 95% protective against any symptomatic COVID-19. But those studies were finished before the record virus surges of recent months and the appearance of the worrisome mutants, meaning such testing might not turn out the same if repeated today. J&J also is studying a two-dose version of its vaccine, but results won’t be available for several more months. THE SUPPLY J&J said it would have some vaccine ready to ship if the FDA allows emergency use of the shot, but it didn’t reveal how much. The pharmaceutical giant said it expects to supply 100 million doses to the U.S. by the end of June. It expects to file a similar application with European regulators soon.

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/21970/21970-h/21970-h.htm

One doctor has admitted he deliberately spoiled a huge batch of doses, and many batches have been spoiled through accident or otherwise.

"...AstraZeneca appears to provide strong protection three months after just one dose while also curbing spread of infections, researchers said Wednesday. British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the study supports a strategy of delaying the second shot so more first doses can be delivered to more people. Researchers also found a 67% reduction in positive "swabs" among those vaccinated – crucial news because if no virus is present, the virus can't spread. AstraZeneca has not yet applied for emergency use authorization for its vaccine in the U.S." Sounds good. Actually, suspiciously good. The UK variant has arrived in my county, with two known victims currently.