Interesting conversation...

[Guest Guest]

I met a biologist on another site and had a conversation with him on Yahoo messenger last night about his feeling regarding the bird flu...he lives in SW Florida and I found some of his thoughts very interesting, so figured I'd share them here with you...yes we both added each other to the messenger cause I sure plan on bombarding him with tons of questions in the future... ...maybe I can entice him to come and join us over here too...

 

Now remember, this is only his opinion and nothing is etched in stone, but it's always good to get different opinions so that ultimately I can make my own deductions. If y'all think of questions you'd like to have me ask him, just lemme know.

 

Darlene: Hello, I saw your post on in the *florida preppers* thread...I just wanted to ask you why you felt that the pandemic/endemic could possibly start in Africa or China...when they did the Florida summit on BF in February, I thought that Gov Bush thought that Florida was very vulnerable to being one of the first states to get hit

Biologist: hi

Darlene: hello

Biologist: the reason is simple..the higher concentration of people dealing with birds on a farm level

Biologist: here fewer do

Darlene: ah

Biologist: in china...if avain made the leap..it would go undetected longer

Biologist: leading to the possible spread beyond controlable means

Biologist: so to in africa...

Biologist: medicine is at such a poor level

Darlene: true, but if it mutates to greater h2h suseptibility in the migrating birds, the local backyard chicken scenario really won't be as important

Biologist: actually I feel it would be humans that bring the virus more than would birds...and like birds their migration comes during the winter

Biologist: florida also is an outdoor state in the summer

Biologist: flu, any flu, travels by indoor concentrated particulate inhalation...so....

Biologist: here we are safer..if a pandemic occurs

Biologist: even in winter

Darlene: that's an interesting point

Biologist: because the weather is better

Biologist: flu does not transmit well in summer because people are outdoors

Biologist: windows open

Biologist: the viral load to cause infection is not possible

Darlene: well down here people are out year round and windows tend to be shut from air conditioning in the summer

Darlene: but if i remember correctly, the virus does better is cooler, more dryer areas?

Biologist: yes true but there are fewer

Biologist: actually no one know how the human stain will react

Darlene: so different strains tend to like different types of conditions...some may thrive better is cooler temps and some may proliferate in warmer temps?

Biologist: if it follows common viral rules ...it will transmit at multi million particle levels...caughed up...in tight quaters..during very very dry periods when lungs are most suspetible..here it is soo humid

Darlene: interesting

Biologist: Honesty, my feeling, my educated feeling, is that florida will not experience the large changes that come in the Northeast...

Biologist: during other pandemics, especially polio

Biologist: florida was spared..relatively speaking due to weather

Darlene: when I've viewed maps of the concentration of the spanish flu, florida was hit but not as bad as other places

Biologist: spanish flu was totally differnt..it was not at all like avian

Biologist: it tended to infect shallow breathers...

Darlene: i thought it was supposed to be a close cousin to spanish flu

Biologist: avian is just the opposite

Darlene: wow

Biologist: close in that it may cause a pandemic

Darlene: ok

Biologist: but enzymatically it is quite different

Darlene: ok

Biologist: apples and oranges

Darlene: gotcha

Biologist: and the real threat has not occured yes

Biologist: it will

Biologist: but I do not think this is the year..personally

Biologist: and if it does, it may be a harmless strain

Biologist: you can never tell

Darlene: yeah, I read Osterholm's (sp?) interview yesterday and I got the sense he thought it might not be this year either, although he didn't say that, it was just the way he commented on different things

Biologist: I like to plan but I also like to be sensible

Biologist: because flu season is over...mostly

Darlene: yes this prepping can be very overwhelming, and I'm a broad prepper, i don't buy just rice and beans and simple things

Biologist: that leads to higher confidence

Darlene: ahh that makes sense

Darlene: and even if it were to start next winter, it wouldn't be full blown yet?

Biologist: probably not

Darlene: this is so surreal

Biologist: oh, there are a great number of infections that are brewing in nature

Biologist: too many people

Biologist: too much reliance on modern medicine

Biologist: we have all lost our fear

Darlene: yanno, I had to go to WPB today and while i was driving north on 95 (i'm in Miami), I was looking at all the construction...condo's and such and it hit me how the population is getting so big that they hafta now build UP instead of next to each other

Biologist: yeppers

Biologist: my own opinion is as a biologist...though I am sure I am wrong in many ways

Darlene: well I think it's something that nobody can know for sure and having some knowledge in areas certainly helps

Biologist: very very true Darlene

Biologist: you know there is not much guess work in disease transmision..once you know what your dealing with....

Biologist: they follow simple guidelines usually

Darlene: that makes sense

Biologist: so too will bird flu

Darlene: I sure hope so cause that thang is skerry

Biologist: it is scarey

Biologist: very very

Biologist: and I am sure you and I will see it

Biologist: soon enough

Biologist: you know sars was scary

Biologist: very scary

Biologist: it took evryone by surprise

Darlene: yeah i vaguely remember that but I didn't really follow it cause it wasn't something that I felt was a personal threat

Biologist: it was

Darlene: i understand that now

Biologist: very very close to going world wide

Darlene: wow

Biologist: and that would have made avian seem...sterile

Darlene: you think?

Biologist: other pathogens are mostly man made

Biologist: there is a great risk of weaponized small pox

Biologist: that....is a threat

Darlene: wow

Biologist: have you ever read the book the "hot zone"?

Darlene: no

Biologist: good book to read

Darlene: ok, I'll get it

Biologist: fun and informative

Biologist: its a best seller

Darlene: what's it about?

Biologist: its about several viruses which emerges such as ebola

Darlene: wow

Biologist: avian is about the same risk..yet ebola does not seem to want to go worldwide

Biologist: so avian might now also

Biologist: are you truly concerned about avian flu...?

Darlene: yes I am, in my gut that makes no logical sense I feel it's a very real threat

Biologist: mostly disease as a rule kills the elderly more than the rest of us

Biologist: the very young and very old

Darlene: and the sick in between

Darlene: well this one seems to really like the younger crowd, yes

Darlene: well I have children so of course that's a worry, so I sure hope if it does hit, that i'll be ok to take care of them

Biologist: it just seems that way cause of the viral load people who have become infected have received

Biologist: they work with chickens...and get huge viral loads

Darlene: ahhh ok

Biologist: so the infection takes place fast

Darlene: yeah but what about all this talk about how the virus continues to mutate, moving it closer to a h2h scenario?

Biologist: the old are not butchering chickens

Biologist: so they are not in the loop

Biologist: you might not get it cause you have some defense that will keep you healthy unless you get a real large viral load..in other words...someone caughing on you or if you take care of a sick husband

Biologist: then you would get sick like those workers do

Biologist: baring that...

Biologist: you will fare better

 

 

 

[Mother]

If what this biologist says is true, why is the biologist who is the leading flu expert stocking up for at least three months in his OWN home? And why are governments around the world in a tizzy? I'm not dissagreeing with him in the least, in fact I pray he IS right and it's not the threat we anticipate. It just seems strange to me, that a government that didn't get especially concerned over the Y2K, would be concerned with this threat to the point where they are slowly bringing the public around to the point of being prepared for at least three months.

 

My question is, if indeed, this virus is not going to be a real threat to us, what exactly IS the government trying to prepare us for under the guise of being prepared for the avain flu. Why are countries stocking up on body bags by the hundreds of thousands and setting up temporary morgues? Why are airports setting up isolation and quarantine areas? Why are they spending millions of dollars, that we don't have in our budget, on this? Why are they hinting that products from overseas might not be available? Why is the secretary of Health and Human services reccomending that we "stock tuna under the bed"? That is an unheard of thing for someone in authority to say here in the United States, one of the most consumer oriented countries in the world.

 

A couple things that might fit that thought are the looming oil crisis and biological or physical terrorist threats. Those things seem to be the other prominent newsworthy items. I suppose it's possible that they want to create a spending spree in the public to bolster the economy? Call me suspicious, but in a time when more governemnt secrets are being exposed daily, it makes me wonder what they are NOT telling us. That's kind of scary for me to think that because basically I'm a very trusting individual. "Something ain't right here"!!!!!

 

 

 

 

[Guest Guest]

I know what you're saying, Mother...

 

Just sharing a convo with someone in that field that I found interesting. Next time I talk to him, I'll try to find out more details.

 

(((((mother)))))

[kaseyb (Supermom!)]

Fascinating, Darlene. Wow, thanks for being so resourceful and sharing! That gives good food for thought. His mention of several viruses which emerging at once (via kookcases) is a genuine concern. That could come out of the blue without warning and be extremely difficult to battle.

 

Mother, your considering other threats is interesting too. Perhaps the government took such a beating from the ineptitude with Katrina that it is working harder to get the American people into a different mindset?

 

It's for sure that we have many different potential threats ahead of us.....if God removes His protective hand.

[nosleepinghere]

Ummm… he seems to waver a lot and sit on the fence (denial is not just a river in Egypt). Instead of apples and oranges he appears to be splitting hairs.

 

Sure hope he’s right about the BF … “here we are safer…if a pandemic occurs… the viral load to cause infection is not possible… but I do not think this is the year..personally….you know there is not much guess work in disease transmission…once you know what your dealing with .... they follow simple guidelines usually… so too will bird flu … are you truly concerned about avian flu...?...you will fare better”

 

At any rate, US is spending $350 Million in 2006 for Pandemic Flu planning. Here’s a few quotes from the “Experts” over at WHO, CDC, and HHS:

 

“no one knows with certainty”

 

“ believe a flu pandemic is inevitable, but no one can know when it may occur.”

 

“the best way to prevent a pandemic would be to eliminate the virus from birds, but it has become increasingly doubtful if this can be achieved within the near future”

 

“ an influenza (flu) pandemic occurs when a new and highly contagious strain of the virus emerges, potentially affecting populations worldwide. Historically, pandemics have occurred every 11 to 39 years; it has been more than 30 years since the last one”.

 

“every country must be prepared”.

 

“ it is probable that H5N1 will continue to evolve, producing even more viruses with pandemic potential and making it necessary to develop a series of vaccines. There is simply no way to predict which strain, if any, might produce a virus capable of mass human-to-human transmission".

 

"Pandemics are global in nature, but their impact is local. When the next pandemic strikes, as it surely will, it is likely to touch the lives of every individual, family, and community. Our task is to make sure that when this happens, we will be a Nation prepared”.

 

“all prerequisites for the start of a pandemic have therefore been met save one: the establishment of efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus. The risk that the H5N1 virus will acquire this ability will persist as long as opportunities for human infections occur. These opportunities, in turn, will persist as long as the virus continues to circulate in birds, and this situation could endure for some years to come.”

 

“the risk of pandemic influenza is serious. With the H5N1 virus now firmly entrenched in large parts of Asia, the risk that more human cases will occur will persist. Each additional human case gives the virus an opportunity to improve its transmissibility in humans, and thus develop into a pandemic strain. The recent spread of the virus to poultry and wild birds in new areas further broadens opportunities for human cases to occur”.

 

“while neither the timing nor the severity of the next pandemic can be predicted, the probability that a pandemic will occur has increased.”

 

As for FL, Dr. Gerberding, CDC director states in her final slide (2/16/06 Tallahassee, FL presentation): “Complacency is the enemy of health protection!”

 

[kaseyb (Supermom!)]

Granny, I like your collection of quotes. For the most part they seem to line up fairly well to me.

 

Bottom line: Some type of pandemic will happen at some point in the future and being ready is smart.

 

Lots of questions of course.

 

Here's what I say, being a pandemic expert myself:

 

In my mind this demonstrates how insane it feels reading all the analyses by BF experts around the world. I am sure we all feel equally frustrated.

[HapyGirl]

Interesting! Taking it into consideration, but it sounded like he was seeing BF as not spreading easily H2H, but we are all planning for a mutation that has not occured yet that would make it more like regular flu and able to pass h2h easily. I don't think ANYONE has the answers right now about that or who would be infected. Once it went H2H, it wouldn't matter if it were young or old culling chickens, since they could pass it to anyone of any age.

[gardnmom]

So far as I can see none of the specialist have a chyrstal ball, they are guessing, just like we are, only with a more educated view.

I feel as he does by the time it goes H 2 H it may be a lot different than it appears now. They seem to make some changes slowly and others suddenly.

I do believe that we are in for big problems, but none of us knows when. If people are so scared that they don't or won't do their jobs, there are going to side effects we can guess at. Mamy more are apt to die from the side effects than from the flu itself.

If your drug store runs out of whatever maintenence meds you are on, you simply won't have it, for some there is no substitute. If it is 20 degrees and there is no fuel and no way to stay warm for an indefinate period of time, many will freeze to death. If the stores run out of food, there is no way that everyone will have enough. I believe many more will die from the lack of supplies than from desease.

We are doing all we can to help prepare those that will listen, but even then, we only have so much to work with. The longer we have to prepare, the better the outlook for us all.

May God be with us all!

 

[cartoongirl]

Don't forget the looters, criminals and such.

[Lois]

BTTT Thanks Darlene.