Level 6

[TurtleMama]

WHO changed the pandemic level today to 6, the highest level. It indicates sustained human-to-human transmission of the H1N1 influenza virus.

 

(Like we didn't know that already...)

 

It seems like they were making every effort to put off raising the pandemic level until closer to fall, but the confirmed cases just kept rising...despite the fact that many hospitals and doctors are refusing to test their patients for Swine Flu...and they are hoping that this will get the vaccine researchers to work a little faster on a Swine Flu vaccine.

 

I'm wondering if a vaccine created in July will be effective in October, however; wouldn't the virus have mutated by then, especially if there is a second wave of infection? It has me worried. My son starts Kindergarten in August, and I don't want him to be exposed to a bad wave 2.

 

WHO's decision to raise the pandemic level is an interesting development -- especially since there are so many people who are "pooh-poohing" the H1N1 virus right now. Hopefully this will help make the sheeple aware that there IS still an icky illness out there, ready to spread...

[Mommawright]

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/i...=22&sp=true

 

 

 

 

WHO declares first 21st century flu pandemic

Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:22pm EDT

 

By Stephanie NebehayGENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization declared the first flu pandemic of the 21st century on Thursday, urging countries to shore up defenses against the virus which is "not stoppable" but has proved mainly mild so far.

 

The United Nations agency raised its pandemic flu alert to phase 6 on a six-point scale, indicating the first influenza pandemic since 1968 is under way.

 

"This is a very important and challenging day for all of us. It is important because we will be raising our pandemic alert level to level 6," WHO Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan told reporters on a teleconference.

 

"At this time, the global assessment is that we are seeing a moderate pandemic."

 

Acting on the recommendation of flu experts, the WHO reiterated its advice to its 193 member countries not to close borders or impose travel restrictions to halt the movement of people, goods and services.

 

The move to phase 6 reflects the fact that the disease, widely known as swine flu, was spreading geographically, but does not indicate how virulent it is.

 

A unanimous experts' decision was based on an overall assessment in the eight most heavily hit countries -- Australia, Britain, Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Spain and the United States -- that the virus is spreading in a sustained way in communities, according to Chan.

 

"Collectively, looking at that, we are satisfied that this virus is spreading to a number of a countries and it is not stoppable," she said.

 

"Moving to pandemic phase six level does not imply we will see an increase in the number of deaths or very severe cases.

 

"Quite on the contrary. Many people are having mild disease, they recover without medicines in some cases and it is good news," she said.

 

FINISH SEASONAL VACCINE PRODUCTION

 

The WHO recommended drugmakers stay on track to complete production of seasonal influenza vaccine for the northern hemisphere's next winter in the next two weeks. Each year, normal flu kills up to 500,000 people and infects millions.

 

Seasonal flu affects mainly elderly, and causes severe illness in millions, so a premature switch in vaccine production to cope with the new strain could put many people at risk.

 

"So our recommendation is they need to finish the seasonal vaccine and then move over. That is pretty good in terms of dove-tailing the production of the two types of vaccine. So I think that this may just work out," Chan said.

 

David Heymann, a former WHO official now chairing Britain's Health Protection Agency, told Reuters before the announcement: "During phase 5, the government and people in the U.K. have had the time to prepare for a pandemic -- this has hopefully decreased any surprise and concern that might be associated with a WHO announcement of phase 6."

 

As it spreads in humans, science cannot predict what course the virus will take, the disease it causes and the age groups infected, Heymann said. "The severity of that disease, the effectiveness of antiviral drugs and the stability of the virus must all be watched closely," Heymann said.

 

A pandemic could cause enormous disruption to business as workers stay home because they are sick or to look after family members and authorities restrict gatherings of large numbers of people or movement of people or goods.

 

World markets shrugged off the possibility of a pandemic, as investors focused on possible global economic recovery.

 

Communicating information about potential risk during a pandemic is very complex and a "huge challenge in the face of scientific uncertainty," Chan said.

 

"But the tendency to move into complacency is our biggest concern. Because we need to continue to monitor this virus, follow its tracks and do not allow it to come back in the second wave to give us more trouble.

 

Widespread transmission of the virus in Victoria, Australia, signaling that it is entrenched in another region besides North America, was one of the key triggers for moving to phase 6.

 

Five people have been admitted to intensive care in Australia and more than 1,000 cases confirmed following widespread testing in the state. [iD:nSYD482995]

 

The new strain can be treated by antiviral drugs oseltamivir, the generic name of Roche Holding's Tamiflu tablets, and Relenza, a spray made by GlaxoSmithKline.

 

The strain, which emerged in April in Mexico and the United States, has spread widely. There have been 28,774 infections reported in 74 countries to date, including 144 deaths, according to WHO's latest tally of laboratory-confirmed cases.

 

But the real number of people with the disease is likely to run into at least hundreds of thousands, as mild cases may not have been detected.

 

(For more Reuters swine flu coverage, please go to:

 

here )

 

(For WHO information on swine flu, go to:

 

here )

 

(Additional reporting by Michael Perry in Sydney; Editing by Jonathan Lynn and Angus MacSwan)

 

 

[grannyto2]

I dont post here but still read for the advice.

http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090611.htm

 

Press Briefing Transcripts

 

CDC Press Conference on Investigation of Human Cases of Novel Influenza A H1N1

 

June 11, 2009, 12:45 noon ET

 

Operator: Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you all for standing by and welcome to today's conference call. At this time your place lines have been placed on listen-only for today's conference. During the question/answer portion, please be sure to press star 1 and record your name at the prompt so that you may be introduced to ask your question. The conference is also being recorded and if you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I will now turn our conference over today to Mr. Glen Nowak. Sir, you may proceed.

 

Glen Nowak: Thank you for coming here and dialing in for this update on the H1N1. This will be directed by Dr. Anne Schuchat, Dr. Frieden who will make opening remarks, then turning the podium over to Dr. Schuchat. We'll then turn it over to questions and answers. I'll now turn it over to Dr. Frieden.

 

Tom Frieden: Thanks very much, Glen, and thank you all for being here. I want to welcome the media and also our partners on the telephone including health departments from around the country. It is wonderful to be back at CDC. I worked for CDC for 12 years and this Monday began my term as director. It is just great to be part of such a wonderful organization. Since the beginning of H1N1, I was health commissioner in New York City and was able to interact on a daily basis with the experts at CDC and have just tremendous respect and admiration for the great work that has been done here. I also want to recognize the leadership of Dr. Rich Besser, Anne Schuchat and Steve Redd through this period. They will continue to be part of CDC's leadership team in this response. I'm honored to be leading the nation's experts in this response to the Novel H1N1 virus.

 

As you know, W.H.O. has officially declared us to be in a pandemic, phase 6 of the global pandemic description. This is not a surprise. It was expected based on the data. W.H.O. waited until they were certain that they had documentation that on multiple continents it was person-to-person sustained transmission and this basically meets our definition of a pandemic. If a strain of the flu virus to which most of us don't have immunity, which is spreading from person to person in many parts of the world. This does not mean that there is any difference in the level of severity of the flu. This is not at this point a flu that's anywhere near as severe as the 1918 pandemic, for example. The declaration of a pandemic does not suggest that there's been any change in the behavior of the virus, only that it is spreading in more parts of the world. And really for all intents and purposes, the U.S. government has been in phase 6 of the pandemic for some time now. This, however, is important because it does send the strong message that the virus is here, it's in all likelihood here to stay, and it's important that we continue our aggressive efforts to prepare and respond. Our key goals are to determine where the virus is spreading and to reduce its impact, particularly on those who are most vulnerable - people with underlying health conditions and infants as well in this case. I'd now like to turn the podium over to Dr. Anne Schuchat who will provide you with an update on cases around some of the action that's been taken.

 

Anne Schuchat: Good afternoon, everyone. I'd also like to welcome Dr. Frieden to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and this press conference. I'm going to give you a quick update on the situation, talk a little bit more about the W.H.O. declaration today, some clinical information, and then summarize some of the actions we're taking here at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with partners around the world.

 

Our U.S. situation, we are continuing to see ongoing transmission of this novel virus. The virus has reached every state in the country. Many of the states are seeing decreases in illness but there are a couple of areas where influenza-like illness is still above the baseline for this time of year. Our case counts, we've been increasing them every week at this point and we're trying not to focus on them but I can give you the situation. There are over 13,000 cases reported to us here in the U.S. There are over 1,000 people who have been hospitalized that have been reported to us. And our last update on the counts of death are 27, but we'll be updating that soon and I do, unfortunately, expect that number to rise. The regional trends that we've been seeing on our website, we're showing that information, we're tracking the influenza-like illness from our 4,800 sentinel providers around the country. What we're seeing is that region 1 and region 2 still see increases above what they'd expect. Region 1 is New England, and in particular Massachusetts is having some challenges. And region 2 is the New York/New Jersey area, and they're also above baseline but plateauing above baseline. I think it's important to recognize that we have to keep our eye out for this, that people think that it's over, flu season is over. But you know, we do expect that there may be continuing transmission over the weeks ahead and we need to remain vigilant. We're looking for that and we know that a number of health departments are still working very intensively.

 

Let me mention a few things about the pandemic alert level or the pandemic phases. As you know, Dr. Chan, the Director General of the World Health Organization, declared phase 6, announcing that it is a pandemic now. I want to go a little bit into detail about what that means for individuals and what does that mean for countries and our global community. This phase 6 means a pandemic is under way. We've been talking about this for years, we've been planning for it, and of course here in the United States we've been reacting as though we were in a pandemic already in terms of our intensive efforts to prepare individuals and respond as a nation. This means, just as we've been talking with Americans, it is important to remember the personal steps you can take to reduce spread of infection and to keep yourself and your family healthy and safe. Important to cover your cough or sneeze, important to stay home if you're ill, not traveling when you're ill, and to really be prepared for greater amounts of illness in your community or your school. What does this mean actually for others? It means that for countries that weren't already seeing the kind of community transmission that we have here in the United States, they really do need to dust off those pandemic plans, make sure they know how they're going to react as illness increases in their own communities, and take aggressive steps to follow what's going on.

 

We say that influenza is unpredictable, and I know it is really frustrating because we wish we could tell you exactly what's going to happen, but we can't. So we have to be prepare for changes in the amount of illness, the severity of illness, the characteristics of the virus, and the reactions of our communities. And what this really means, this spread to multiple regions that is what defines a pandemic, an actual pandemic, what it means is that the virus is spreading, not as Dr. Frieden said, not that it has changed in the apparent severity. Now severity's been something a lot of people have been talking about. We can think about the severity to the individual and we already know that this virus can cause very mild self-limited disease that gets better without treatment, but it is also able to cause very severe illness for an individual, hospitalization, intensive care unit, or even death. And we try to look at the spectrum of how much of that severe to mild illness is there. Right now the world health organization is characterizing this as a moderately severe pandemic. They're not saying it is the same thing as that 1918 devastating pandemic, but it's something we have to take seriously and we need the countries to be paying attention to. Of course, the same virus can cause very different patterns in different countries. We know some countries have limited health structures and health services, and some communities have more people who are vulnerable to life threatening infections with the same kind of virus that would cause a mild illness in others. So I think we really need to work together. We're really all in this together around the world. Here in the U.S., the phase 6 declaration isn't going to change our day-to-day activities. We continue to take this seriously, continue to work with state and local health departments and the provider community, and continue to want Americans to be aware of this and be thinking ahead. You know, taking those safe precautions of covering your cough or sneeze, but also thinking about if things got worse in my community, how would I cope with that. We're not restricting travel outside -- to particular countries. We're not changing those types of things. This is not what the meaning of the declaration is. It's just really important to remember that a pandemic is a global thing. It means that the whole world is united around this condition now. For a while there it looked like it was just the Americas.

 

A couple points about the clinical picture. We continue to see a disproportionate amount of illness in hospitalizations. Younger people compared with the elderly. With seasonal influenza, in a typical year we see a lot more disease in the elderly. But in some ways this Novel H1N1 virus is behaving somewhat like the seasonal H1N1 viruses which tend to affect younger people and not the elderly so much. The H3 viruses, the influenza H3 viruses tend to affect the elderly and often are quite severe there. In other respects, of course, this virus isn't like the seasonal H1N1 because we don't think there's general population protection. It is a very new virus. 57% of the cases that we're having reported to us occur in people 5 to 24 years of age, and 41% of the hospitalizations are in that same age group -- the older children and young adults. But I also want to tell you about the rates, the cases per 100,000 population, and let you know that the highest rates of hospitalization are actually in children under 5. And the next highest rates are in those people 5 to 24. So it looks like this is a virus that's disproportionately affecting younger people but there are still lots of infections and hospitalizations in older persons. According to the U.S. statistics, 71% of the hospitalized patients have occurred in people who have an underlying condition -- respiratory illness like asthma or conic obstructive pulmonary disease, immune deficiencies, and so forth. As we have noted, there's been a disproportionate amount of pregnant women among those who have had infection.

 

Let me turn last to the actions that we're taking. There are two categories I want to cover. One is understanding the problem and the other is preparing for prevention. To understand this problem we're now intensively focused on the southern hemisphere. We still have spread here in the U.S. but we're looking to the southern hemisphere which is just beginning their influenza season. We of course at CDC have people stationed around the world working on a number of conditions and they're helping us know what's going on with influenza. We also have deployed staff to selected countries in the southern hemisphere to get a little more of the ground truth. We are hearing reports officially from several southern hemisphere countries about increases in disease and those have also been in the media. Australia's going into their flu season. They've reported a lot of cases so far. Chile has also reported a lot of cases. They've been very open and transparent about their circumstances and congratulate them for that. The second area of actions is about vaccines. As we've been talking over the weeks, vaccines are a very important potential prevention opportunity for a pandemic of influenza. It is important to separate a couple things. We think about vaccines in terms of vaccine development, vaccine manufacturing, and vaccine administration or delivery. At this point the government has launched an effort to develop a vaccine against this strain and we are in the early stages of manufacturing. There has not been a decision to actually vaccinate people, and that's a very separate decision that will be made later on, quite a bit later once we have more information. At this point what I'd like to do is turn things back over to Dr. Frieden. I think he and I will take questions.

 

Tom Frieden: Thank you, Dr. Schuchat. In summary, we know that the virus is circulating widely now, not only in the U.S. and neighboring countries, but also in many parts of the globe. The unfortunate news is that it seems to spread faster, at least in schools-aged children than we've been accustomed to seeing. The good news is that so far, we've not seen lots of disease among the elderly who tend to be the more severely affected by seasonal influenza. Given the continued transmission and the uncertainty about the course that had will take, our role will be to continue intensive preparations and planning for the coming months. We can expect to see continued and increased urgency and visibility of planning efforts. We can expect to see continued efforts to develop a vaccine and we hope and anticipate that that may be in place by the fall. Again, a decision of whether or not to use the vaccine is a separate decision from whether or not to make the vaccine. But obviously we need to make it in order to make the decision of whether or not to recommend it and use it. There's been excellent cooperation with the World Health Organization and with countries around the world. This is one of the many conditions that reminds us that we are all connected, and many of our decisions in the U.S. will rely on good information from countries in Latin America, in Africa, in Asia, Australia and elsewhere. So very important that we confront this jointly. Of course, state and local health departments are at the forefront of responding to H1N1 and facing many very difficult and daily decisions.

 

We're faced with a situation of uncertainty. We wish we could foresee the future. We wish we could know what course it will take. But what we're doing now is getting information as effectively as we can so that we can take the steps that are most sensible now to reduce the number of people severely ill or tragically, who may die from H1N1 influenza. One of the key steps is that for anyone who does have a fever, a measured fever, take your temperature, over 100.4, along with either cough or sore throat an also has an underlying condition, whether you have asthma, diabetes, or are pregnant, or an infant under the age of 2, see your doctor right away to see if you should be treated for influenza with antiviral medic

[grannyto2]

I dont post here but still read for the advice.

http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090611.htm

 

Press Briefing Transcripts

 

CDC Press Conference on Investigation of Human Cases of Novel Influenza A H1N1

 

June 11, 2009, 12:45 noon ET

 

Operator: Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you all for standing by and welcome to today's conference call. At this time your place lines have been placed on listen-only for today's conference. During the question/answer portion, please be sure to press star 1 and record your name at the prompt so that you may be introduced to ask your question. The conference is also being recorded and if you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I will now turn our conference over today to Mr. Glen Nowak. Sir, you may proceed.

 

Glen Nowak: Thank you for coming here and dialing in for this update on the H1N1. This will be directed by Dr. Anne Schuchat, Dr. Frieden who will make opening remarks, then turning the podium over to Dr. Schuchat. We'll then turn it over to questions and answers. I'll now turn it over to Dr. Frieden.

 

Tom Frieden: Thanks very much, Glen, and thank you all for being here. I want to welcome the media and also our partners on the telephone including health departments from around the country. It is wonderful to be back at CDC. I worked for CDC for 12 years and this Monday began my term as director. It is just great to be part of such a wonderful organization. Since the beginning of H1N1, I was health commissioner in New York City and was able to interact on a daily basis with the experts at CDC and have just tremendous respect and admiration for the great work that has been done here. I also want to recognize the leadership of Dr. Rich Besser, Anne Schuchat and Steve Redd through this period. They will continue to be part of CDC's leadership team in this response. I'm honored to be leading the nation's experts in this response to the Novel H1N1 virus.

 

As you know, W.H.O. has officially declared us to be in a pandemic, phase 6 of the global pandemic description. This is not a surprise. It was expected based on the data. W.H.O. waited until they were certain that they had documentation that on multiple continents it was person-to-person sustained transmission and this basically meets our definition of a pandemic. If a strain of the flu virus to which most of us don't have immunity, which is spreading from person to person in many parts of the world. This does not mean that there is any difference in the level of severity of the flu. This is not at this point a flu that's anywhere near as severe as the 1918 pandemic, for example. The declaration of a pandemic does not suggest that there's been any change in the behavior of the virus, only that it is spreading in more parts of the world. And really for all intents and purposes, the U.S. government has been in phase 6 of the pandemic for some time now. This, however, is important because it does send the strong message that the virus is here, it's in all likelihood here to stay, and it's important that we continue our aggressive efforts to prepare and respond. Our key goals are to determine where the virus is spreading and to reduce its impact, particularly on those who are most vulnerable - people with underlying health conditions and infants as well in this case. I'd now like to turn the podium over to Dr. Anne Schuchat who will provide you with an update on cases around some of the action that's been taken.

 

Anne Schuchat: Good afternoon, everyone. I'd also like to welcome Dr. Frieden to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and this press conference. I'm going to give you a quick update on the situation, talk a little bit more about the W.H.O. declaration today, some clinical information, and then summarize some of the actions we're taking here at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with partners around the world.

 

Our U.S. situation, we are continuing to see ongoing transmission of this novel virus. The virus has reached every state in the country. Many of the states are seeing decreases in illness but there are a couple of areas where influenza-like illness is still above the baseline for this time of year. Our case counts, we've been increasing them every week at this point and we're trying not to focus on them but I can give you the situation. There are over 13,000 cases reported to us here in the U.S. There are over 1,000 people who have been hospitalized that have been reported to us. And our last update on the counts of death are 27, but we'll be updating that soon and I do, unfortunately, expect that number to rise. The regional trends that we've been seeing on our website, we're showing that information, we're tracking the influenza-like illness from our 4,800 sentinel providers around the country. What we're seeing is that region 1 and region 2 still see increases above what they'd expect. Region 1 is New England, and in particular Massachusetts is having some challenges. And region 2 is the New York/New Jersey area, and they're also above baseline but plateauing above baseline. I think it's important to recognize that we have to keep our eye out for this, that people think that it's over, flu season is over. But you know, we do expect that there may be continuing transmission over the weeks ahead and we need to remain vigilant. We're looking for that and we know that a number of health departments are still working very intensively.

 

Let me mention a few things about the pandemic alert level or the pandemic phases. As you know, Dr. Chan, the Director General of the World Health Organization, declared phase 6, announcing that it is a pandemic now. I want to go a little bit into detail about what that means for individuals and what does that mean for countries and our global community. This phase 6 means a pandemic is under way. We've been talking about this for years, we've been planning for it, and of course here in the United States we've been reacting as though we were in a pandemic already in terms of our intensive efforts to prepare individuals and respond as a nation. This means, just as we've been talking with Americans, it is important to remember the personal steps you can take to reduce spread of infection and to keep yourself and your family healthy and safe. Important to cover your cough or sneeze, important to stay home if you're ill, not traveling when you're ill, and to really be prepared for greater amounts of illness in your community or your school. What does this mean actually for others? It means that for countries that weren't already seeing the kind of community transmission that we have here in the United States, they really do need to dust off those pandemic plans, make sure they know how they're going to react as

[JCK88]

I've been digging around the flu topic...and recently read in Infection Control Today that the pandemic level was reached about six weeks ago but that international politics prevented them from moving ahead with a declaration. I don't have the link...

 

But, I was digging around again this morning and found some tidbits the media is not covering. For example, have you wondered why the cases in Mexico were way worse than the ones here? Turns out that exposure to common levels of arsenic make flu worse. There is a lot of arsenic in the water in Mexico in wells. http://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/hotne...c-exposure.html

 

And, on May 26, WHO was already contracting with companies for the H1N1 flu vaccine http://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/hotne...-a-vaccine.html

 

And, an interesting article about lessons already learned about the way the world announced and responded to the flu threat:http://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/hotne...ak-lessons.html

 

I'm mainly posting these things so those of you following the news on flu have an additional, credible source of information you might not find anyplace else. It is at times like this I am ever grateful for the trade press--which doesn't have the same agenda as the mainstream media.

[Homemaker]

Does anybody think they will make vaccination mandatory?

 

I would have to refuse it. What would they do?

[TurtleMama]

Right there with you, Homemaker. There is NO way I would allow the government yahoos to force vaccinations on my family.

 

Don't get me wrong -- I have had them get their normal childhood vaccinations. But we're allergic to the regular flu shot (egg allergies) and I don't think it does any good, anyway. Remember the last swine flu vaccine? It was fatal to many who took it. NO WAY, NO HOW. Not my babies.

 

 

[Homemaker]

So Turtlemama,

 

You would have a valid excuse if the new vaccine was the same. Do they culture the vaccine in egg?

 

I'll have to research that angle and develop a good story about how deathly ill it would make me.

 

I wonder if I could really get away with it. I haven't been to a doctor in years, so there would be no current file.

[vine]

I totally agree. I, too, am allergic to them. Every time I have gotten a flu shot I have come down with an intense bout of the flu w/i 3 to 4 days. For the last 5 or so years I have not taken one and have only gotten the flu once. I prefer to take my chances as opposed to definately bringing it on.(knock on wood).

[Jingles]

I would love to avoid the vaccine also, but since my kids have an "underlying condition" it is actually safer for them to get the vaccine than the actual flu. My DS has a level 4 allergy to eggs, but he is still able to take the flu shot. The protein he is allergic to is so far NOT in the vaccine, but I do give him an extra dose of benedryl just in case every time. Considering benedryl makes my DS bounce off the walls, I really don't like giving it to him, but it's better than him getting a reaction. So far we have been lucky.

 

If you are wondering if he is really allergic, the last time he got an item with egg in it his throat closed up, his face broke out, and he had trouble swallowing. Scared the snot out of me and Nyte (he was with us at the time). He has also been tested several times for it. Wish he would out grow it.... He did the peanut butter and milk.

[pamcat]

two very good websites for flu information singtomeohmuse.com (pandemic flu information and lots of very good news reports) and newfluwikie2.com. also very good news site. both have extensive information about prepping as well as newshounds that are very good at gathering information. pam

[nmchick]

I've been digging around the flu topic...and recently read in Infection Control Today that the pandemic level was reached about six weeks ago but that international politics prevented them from moving ahead with a declaration. I don't have the link...

 

But, I was digging around again this morning and found some tidbits the media is not covering. For example, have you wondered why the cases in Mexico were way worse than the ones here? Turns out that exposure to common levels of arsenic make flu worse. There is a lot of arsenic in the water in Mexico in wells. http://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/hotne...c-exposure.html

 

And, on May 26, WHO was already contracting with companies for the H1N1 flu vaccine http://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/hotne...-a-vaccine.html

 

And, an interesting article about lessons already learned about the way the world announced and responded to the flu threat:http://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/hotne...ak-lessons.html

 

I'm mainly posting these things so those of you following the news on flu have an additional, credible source of information you might not find anyplace else. It is at times like this I am ever grateful for the trade press--which doesn't have the same agenda as the mainstream media.

 

Thanks for posting this Judy. Interesting sources.

[sassenach]

This is an interactive map, roll over the states and see confirmed cases and deaths. It looks like 1% or better in mortality rate in general, for the swine flu. I think an indicator it is getting worse is the percentage of deaths rising, as time goes on....( realize there are probably at least 4 times as many people actually sick with this flu, rather than just going by the stats on confirmed cases, as many will never be tested) It could be alot higher than that.

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30435064/ns/health-swine_flu

 

There are plenty of other links to check out towards the bottom of the page too.

[westbrook]

I would not surprise me to see the CDC change the levels once again. We know so much more about a virus, to have the levels go to 0-10 makes more sense then to have it 0-5 or 6.

 

To define what is a world pandemic rather then taking it to the highest level because 1-100 people on each continent has died from a specific strain of flu. Actually that is a rather normal number.

 

As those below the equator are coming into their flu season, I am curious to see what this flu is going to do.

 

but I got a bit off point.. It wouldn't surprise me to see the CDC to move the highest level to a 10, redefining and spreading out what the levels define.

[wantabunch]

This is from http://health.utah.gov/epi/h1n1flu/sitrep062409.pdf

 

CDC is now estimating that the novel H1N1 virus will be “Category 2” in severity. They are closely watching the situation in the Southern Hemisphere for validation of this estimate.

 A category 2 pandemic has the following characteristics:

• Case fatality ratio of 0.1 percent to less than 0.5 percent.

• Between 90,000 and 450,000 deaths in the U.S. (compared with estimated 36,000 deaths during a typical influenza season).

• Excess death rate of between 30 to less than 150 per 100,000 people.

• Illness rate of between 20 and 40 percent.

• Similar to 1957 pandemic.

[Jakk]

This is from http://health.utah.gov/epi/h1n1flu/sitrep062409.pdf

 

CDC is now estimating that the novel H1N1 virus will be “Category 2” in severity. They are closely watching the situation in the Southern Hemisphere for validation of this estimate.

 A category 2 pandemic has the following characteristics:

• Case fatality ratio of 0.1 percent to less than 0.5 percent.

• Between 90,000 and 450,000 deaths in the U.S. (compared with estimated 36,000 deaths during a typical influenza season).

• Excess death rate of between 30 to less than 150 per 100,000 people.

• Illness rate of between 20 and 40 percent.

• Similar to 1957 pandemic.

 

 

Most of the people that died in the 1957 pandemic were the same people that are vulnerable to regular seasonal flu.. the elderly, those with chronic illness and infants. This flu is more in line with the 1918 pandemic which struck young, healthy people and those with underlying conditions.