China confirms human H5N1 transmission

[JCK88]

The "when" has become now, not an "if" anymore..this story is only a couple hours old as of 10 p.m. EST Monday, April 7...

 

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080407/ap_on_.../china_bird_flu

 

China confirms human H5N1 transmission

Chinese health officials have confirmed that a father caught bird flu from his son last December, according to a report released Tuesday.

 

Human-to-human transmission of bird flu has happened about a dozen times in the past, in countries including Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Turkey. In nearly every case, transmission has occurred among blood relatives who have been in close contact, and the virus has not spread into the wider community.

 

In the case in China, a 52-year-old man and his 24-year-old son in Jiangsu province were diagnosed with H5N1 bird flu within a week of each other last December. At the time, officials from the World Health Organization said they could not rule out the possibility of human-to-human transmission.

 

After the son died, his father was treated with antivirals and participated in an H5N1 vaccine trial. He survived.

 

The son's only exposure to bird flu was at a poultry market, while the father apparently had no direct exposure to sick birds. His only known exposure to bird flu was close contact with his ill son.

 

"Limited, non-sustained person to person transmission of H5N1 virus probably occurred in this family cluster," wrote researchers at Beijing's Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in the medical journal, The Lancet.

 

"There is no indication from this data that we are any nearer to a pandemic," said Ian Jones, a professor of virology at the University of Reading. Bird flu remains difficult for humans to catch, and experts think most cases are linked to close contact with infected birds.

 

Health officials monitor every potential case of human to human transmission with particular concern to see if the virus might have mutated into a form that is more easily spread. So far, that has not happened.

 

Many flu experts worry that H5N1 will spark a pandemic, potentially killing millions worldwide. But despite circulating widely in Asia and beyond since late 2003, the virus only rarely infects humans. As of April 3, WHO reported 378 cases and 238 deaths worldwide.

 

[Mother]

Human to Human cases were diagnosed already last year in Indonesia. Some cases involved many family members and it is believed that some of the hospital staff contracted it as well though as far as I know that's never been confirmed.

 

I keep thinking that there is something wrong with the way this possible 'pandemic' is being handled. They are saying that there have only been 378 cases world wide but because of the huge numbers of deaths associated with it they are concerned that it will take out huge segments of the population world wide if it goes H to H in a sustainable way.

 

The common flu is highly contagious and kills huge numbers of people each year despite vaccines coming out year after year. Yet no one seems concerned that IT will mutate to become higly deadly even though it mutates annually. HIV kills a lot more each year than the bird flu ever has yet it seems to be commonly accepted without concern that it will mutate to become highly deadly to large segments of the population. There are hundreds of diseases out there that disable and kill thousands of people around the world, many thought to be viral or bacterial in basis, yet they too seem to be accepted without question or fear.

 

What makes the Bird Flu so different? Is it because most people have no natural ammunity to it? That could be said of almost all diseases. Is it because there is no known cure? That could also be said of 90% of diseases out there.

 

Is it because its economic impact is already much worse than other diseases, killing astronomical numbers of poultry a year already. Poultry that sustains life in a lot of countries hit with it. Not to mention the models that suggest that if it went world wide over 40% of the workforce could be out, effectively bringing the economy to a halt. That could be said of any disease that mutated to have the same impact. In fact the impact of the regular flu on the work place is extreme at peak seasons.

 

Is it possible that this particular virus might be a biological weapon like the 1918 influenze was suspected of being and they are worried it might just wipe out the world? There are miriads of those out there we aren't even aware of that are already having an impact on huge numbers of unsuspecting people, if not deadly then at least dibilitating.

 

Why is it that this virus, which according to the WHO has only claimed 238 deaths world wide should be such a threat?

 

Sorry, just a few thoughts that have been running around in my mind for a long time now.

 

[JCK88]

Ok. let's see if I can explain this. You don't see this explanation much in the media and it should be there.

 

This virus is more of a threat because the number of people who get it AND die are around 50 percent of those infected. That's pretty high when you consider that the Spanish influenza epidemic of 1918 had a 20 percent kill rate. But it's not the high kill rate that worries people who study pandemics.

 

You see, it's not the lethality of the virus that concerns people like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Oranization (WHO). Around 2005,the virus actually was decided to be less lethal than initially thought. But that's exactly what makes it MORE dangerous. If the kill rate was, say 90 percent, then the hosts of the virus would be dying and not spreading it. But when it's lower, like 50 precent or 20 percent, then the chances of spreading it are higher.

 

This virus could be mutating into a form that can survive inside a person's body without being detected and without killing that person, so of course that would make it far more infectious because of the numbers of people surviving who are infectious.

 

 

If this virus kill rate drops even further, down to about 25 percent, it will become even more deadly in a global sense. It will become more of a pandemic threat because the virus could easily slip out of a country -- out of China, Korea, and Thailand or Indonesia or wherever it happens to be. It could infect some travelers, get onto airplanes and into airports and then move very rapidly from one country to another.

 

And while it's at it, whole flocks of food source poultry are also wiped out.

 

I doubt that the 1918 flu was biological warfare. WWI was the first time chemical warfare was used and this kind of weaponry was in its infancy. The chemical agents they used were pretty primitive..mostly mustard gus, no biological weapons like nerve gases. I think in the years after 1918, some countries accused each other of biological weapons, but nothing seems to have been decided or proven.

 

This particular virus can be spread both by migrating flocks of birds and traveling humans now---so it's got a greater chance of going global than the other flu viruses we deal with. And that, my friend, is why we should keep an eye on it.

 

As to the bird flu being a biological weapon---I doubt it. We have faster, more efficient biological weaponry that can kill instantly and no need to wait for mutations.

 

May I ask this? By your questions you sound like you think bird flu isn't a threat? Is that correct or are you simply asking questions to get people to think about what they hear? Not sure of your motive here, but it does sound like you doubt the danger of bird flu and I personaly don't think any of us should discount it.

 

[Mother]

Judy, I absolutely DO believe that the bird flu is a threat to us. A huge threat I have been a strong proponent of being prepared for the Bird Flu both within my family and friends and here on Mrs. S. I just had forgotten that new members might not be aware of that and was just musing without explaining myself. Sorry.

 

In fact, two years ago Dh, DD, and I attended a meeting at a local college that showed exactly what the threat was. The speaker was from the U of I Laboratory, which is one of the official testing agents in the US. They not only test but also study it. We were told at that time how easy it was for a virus to escape a laboratory despite all the safeguards in place. It was implied that this might be such a virus. At that time it was suggested that we start preparing for the very possibilities that are pointed out. This is a link to the info here on Mrs. S:

http://www.mrssurvival.com/forums/ubbthrea...true#Post128839

 

Shortly after I had a family and friends meeting to help others understand this threat. You can find the information on that here:

http://www.mrssurvival.com/forums/ubbthrea...true#Post124622

 

(the name Raeba is the one I was given after the crash of the site)

My comments were simply some of the thoughts I have had since then on this disease.

 

Again, I apologize for the misunderstanding. I was hoping to get some discussion going. I suspect that this discussion should be in the Edge however as it is controversial. I believe there is a similar post there or in the Cave. I will post a reply to the bio-weapon aspect there.

 

Let me say that I believe that we should all be as prepared as possible for ANY pandemic for it is certain, according to their pandemic plan, that the Federal government will not be there to help us but WILL be there to “put down insurrections”. Our state governments are trying to have plans in place to handle a pandemic but if you look at what they’ve done you can see that it will not be nearly enough. With the numbers of Bird Flu occurrences escalating in the last few months I recently went over my own preps for it. Perhaps it is time to bump some of the former posts here on Mrs. S.

 

Judy, thank you for the information you have given us.

 

 

[JCK88]

Oh Good. I thought that was the case, but your questions kinda threw me off there, LOL (and no need for apologies. I'm not upset or anything, just wondered...and asked for clarification which you gave.)

 

I don't think bird flu is an escaped virus. The stuff they are working on in the bioweapons labs my dh has visited required him to wear a suit and have in hand a syringe with which he was supposed to jab himself within 20 seconds of an alarm going off or he'd be dead. (He's a defense industry magazine editor and reporter. Been in this field for 30 years. He says there is a lot of scary stuff out there the mainstream media doesn't talk about or cover, but he doesn't think bird flu is one of them. )

 

It seems irresponsible for anyone of credibility to imply that a virus is escaped from a weapons lab without showing evidence or at least taking it to the press for a hue and a cry. I'm sorry, I don't buy it. But I'll also go look in the edge now for your reply.

 

Maybe if this is too controversial someone should move the whole thread to one place. I'm gonna get all confused, I just know it. HA

 

 

[winknasmile]

I thought I already posted this but maybe not and maybe it's already been said BUT has anyone thought about this human to human transmission being in China? Think of the numbers of people from all the countries all over the world that will be there this summer for the Olympics. Don't know about you but I kind of shudder thinking what could/might happen.

[Mother]

Winks, that is a terrible thought. Makes me shudder with you. Also makes me shudder because our son just got back from there, though hopefully he was more in corporate offices than anywhere else. Grrrrr.

 

:bughug:

[ro2935]

China rejects human-to-human bird flu report

Sat Apr 12, 1:35 AM ET

 

BEIJING (AFP) - China has rejected a study which found a probable case of human-to-human bird flu transmission in the country, state media reported.

 

 

The study, published in British medical magazine The Lancet this week, said a 24-year-old man was likely to have infected his father with H5N1 before dying, raising the spectre of a feared flu pandemic.

 

But health ministry spokesman Mao Qun'an said there was no clear evidence to support the findings.

 

"So far no evidence has been found in China to support the idea that the H5N1 virus can easily pass from one person to another," he said, according to Xinhua news agency on Friday.

 

The case, in the eastern city of Nanjing in December, is one of a handful worldwide in which the H5N1 virus is suspected to have spread from one person to another.

 

To date, however, all such cases have been what scientists call "limited, non-sustained, person-to-person transmission," meaning that contagion only occurs under specific circumstances.

 

The vast majority of the known 378 human cases of H5N1 bird flu since 2003 were spread by domestic or wild fowl, according to the World Health Organisation. More than 60 percent proved fatal.

 

Experts fear that the H5N1 virus could mutate after infecting one human into a more contagious form, as occurred during at least three flu pandemics in the 20th century.

 

An estimated 20 to 40 million people perished in the so-called "Spanish flu" of 1918. Since 2003, there have been around 200 bird flu fatalities, mainly in Asia.

 

 

I think there is much more going on in China, there goverment have never been forthcoming over information [think Sars] and with the coming Olympics events they will not want adverse publicity about potential sickness leaking out, I guess time will show if there is a problem and of course then it will be too late.

It is time to get the extras in, extra food, water, medical supplies and get debt down as much as possible, think about how you are going to prepare food if there is no power, what about air conditioning or heat, lighting and how you are going to dispose of waste [medical and human poo] and home safety/security.

I would rather have a stash of food ect and not need it than be in need and not have it, there will be a lot of people who will fall in the second place of not having and thinking the goverment, families or neighbours are going to bail them out.

Very few people know of my compulsive disorder of stashing things for a rainy day, those that do also suffer from the same disease, if it spreads may have to start a self help group.

 

 

[JCK88]

Hey ro, I think this place IS the support group, but we aren't going to be "cured' any time soon HA

 

You're right, I'd rather have the stash. And hey, thanks for posting that about the Chinese rejecting the reports. This is very interesting and I had not seen that. I wonder why they first confirmed it and then recanted...hmmm.

[Ambergris]

I'd rather have feed I didn't need than a need I couldn't feed.

[Cricket]

In my view, prepping IS the self-help, not the disorder!

 

Well, if China denies H to H virus transmission, that must mean the original story was just plain wrong. China would never lie to us. Or Russia, or Iran, or Korea....