WHAT WOULD YOUR CRITERIA BE

[westbrook]

drumrunner... I will be dead long before that happens... but I will be watching from the sidelines.

 

1% isn't enough to concern me personally, 30% and I am gonna be in lock down! but I need to qualify this...

 

I live in a mountain community of 300. My nearest neighbor is 1/2 mile to east and west of me... well I do have 2 renters down the hill.

 

My nearest neighbor to the North of me is 50 miles and that is a couple of 1000 acre farms. To the south of me is a little flat valley of perhaps 50 homes.

 

I am not dealing with large towns or cities unless I go to town and that is 40 miles to the east.

 

No one comes here unless you live here or are riding your bike, motorcycle, or vintage car that you want to tule along at 30 miles an hour.

 

My concerns are far less then perhaps others. I am retired and pick and choose where I go. My husband works in a closed shop, everything is done by phone, through product does come into shipping and receiving. He really only interfaces with the employees on a limited basis... if my husband coughs.. he can set up in the trailer! I will wave at him through the window. ROFL!!!

 

 

[ROSARYCHAPLET]

this flu is one for me. i'm a sub. teacher. i have to work with students all day. the fact hat this is testing week and no sub is being called suits me fine. we have not been to any public places. no malls, no parks, nowhere we usually go.

[drumrunner]

this flu is one for me. i'm a sub. teacher. i have to work with students all day. the fact hat this is testing week and no sub is being called suits me fine. we have not been to any public places. no malls, no parks, nowhere we usually go.

 

There are now close to 300 schools closed. Makes me wonder who is staying home now to take care of the kids? Perhaps an increase in worker absenteeism will occur shortly or is happening even now, and all this with a tad over 100 cases of flu. The next 2 weeks ought to be real interesting.

[Mt_Rider]

by drumrunner

The next 2 weeks ought to be real interesting.

 

You can say THAT again!

 

I keep saying: Well, we'll know more in the next two weeks...... Will the virus burn out? They do sometimes.

 

 

MtRider

 

 

 

[ROSARYCHAPLET]

drumrunner... I will be dead long before that happens... but I will be watching from the sidelines.

 

1% isn't enough to concern me personally, 30% and I am gonna be in lock down! but I need to qualify this...

 

I live in a mountain community of 300. My nearest neighbor is 1/2 mile to east and west of me... well I do have 2 renters down the hill.

 

My nearest neighbor to the North of me is 50 miles and that is a couple of 1000 acre farms. To the south of me is a little flat valley of perhaps 50 homes.

 

I am not dealing with large towns or cities unless I go to town and that is 40 miles to the east.

 

No one comes here unless you live here or are riding your bike, motorcycle, or vintage car that you want to tule along at 30 miles an hour.

 

My concerns are far less then perhaps others. I am retired and pick and choose where I go. My husband works in a closed shop, everything is done by phone, through product does come into shipping and receiving. He really only interfaces with the employees on a limited basis... if my husband coughs.. he can set up in the trailer! I will wave at him through the window. ROFL!!!

 

 

where do you live? can my family and i live there, too? hhmmmm? (j/k)

 

[LeeAnn]

 

Just an opinion here but in the Northern Hemisphere it's spring/summer so we shouldn't get hit real hard. Watch carefully what is happening in South America where it's fall, turning into winter.

 

Something about this whole thing doesn't feel right, I just don't know what it is.

[MommaDogs]

Mother, I've heard so many times on this site that whether it has been manufactured or not has no bearing on how we handle it. I would like to put an argument out there that if this is an engineered virus, it likely has more capacity than a natural virus to hang on, cause illness, spread better, etc.

[drumrunner]

Expressions in the English language come from varied sources including colorful expressions from the military such as "dogfight", "GI", "SOP" and "snafu". One popular nautical term is "a shot across the bow". Like many expressions, it has a literal definition as well as a figurative one. In the days before radar, radio and high-powered binoculars, one ship meeting another at a distance might not be able to tell the country from whence she hailed. Therefore, in the 18th century, the captain would order a 'shot across the bow', that is, a warning shot cannonball fired across the bow, just barely missing the target vessel. This was the way to get the undivided attention of the other captain and to politely ask the ship to show her colors. If the colors were of an enemy country, the captain might then order an attack on the ship. The shot across the bow says, " We’re serious. We will shoot to kill."

 

The phrase, "shot across the bow," also has a figurative definition. It usually refers to an event or action that is a very serious warning and wants your undivided attention.

 

So far H1N1 hasn't been dealing out deaths (other than Mexico and one young toddler in TX.) but it continues to spread. This is a shot across humanity's bow and is very clearly saying "We’re serious. We will shoot to kill." Why? H1N1 has a lethal friend, H5N1, which is proven to be anything BUT harmless. The two influenza virus strains may eventually meet, trade a little genetic information, then move out into humanity once again, but this time with the ability to readily transmit from human to human AND cheerfully kill. IF H1N1 remains relatively benign, I won't breath a sigh of relief and just go back to my normal life. Neither should you.

[Mother]

Mommadogs, I understand what you are saying but I believe this is what I said.

 

We argue over the possibility of this flu being manufactured and orchestrated but that has no bearing on the possible severity of its affect on us all. You (Drumrunner) bring that reality home. We can argue and conjecture all we want but it doesn't change the fact that we can be in that 2% or in that 98%. It is up to us to be prepared either way. The better prepared we are, the more precautions we take, the better our chances of being in that 98% become.

 

Let me be clear. I have no personal doubts that this could easily have been manufactured and/or orchestrated. You would certainly have no argument there but that doesn't change the fact that it IS here and we have to deal with it.

 

If you have proof to back up an argument then I would be more than willing to listen to what you have to say for I, too, would like to know who/why/how and etc of this thing. I highly doubt I would change the way I prep for this pandemic and the possible second and third wave that could come. Nor will it change the way I prep for the possibility of other crisis we might have in conjunction with it such as martial law, possibility of financial collapse co-existing, possibility of being hit with another disaster during the flu crisis, take over by the UN or One World Government, and etc. But then, being prepared for all sorts of possible disasters/crisis is what we learn here at Mrs. S.

 

As Drumrunner says, It is a warning. I hope I am paying attention.

 

[TurtleMama]

So far H1N1 hasn't been [/size][/font]dealing out deaths (other than Mexico and one young toddler in TX.) but it continues to spread. This is a shot across humanity's bow and is very clearly saying "We’re serious. We will shoot to kill." Why? H1N1 has a lethal friend, H5N1, which is proven to be anything BUT harmless. The two influenza virus strains may eventually meet, trade a little genetic information, then move out into humanity once again, but this time with the ability to readily transmit from human to human AND cheerfully kill. IF H1N1 remains relatively benign, I won't breath a sigh of relief and just go back to my normal life. Neither should you.

 

Amen...that is what my husband and I were talking about when this all first started. It would only take the viruses meeing up in one host -- and we know how adept they are at exchanging DNA and/or RNA info. That's what I'm looking out for. OR it could just mutate over the summer, and come back in the fall lethal. I don't WANT any of that to happen -- just saying that it could, and I think we should be prepared for it. Better to have too much Oscillo-stuff (I can't ever remember how to spell/say that word!) and Kleenex and food than not enough. If nothing else, at least this strain of flu has shown us that pandemics ARE still possible, DO happen (we tend to forget that about HIV -- perhaps because it's so much harder to get than the flu [for now] and much more preventable, and it's generally an illness of the Other), and that we HAVE to be aware that illnesses we perceive as relatively harmless most of the time can turn lethal with a simple genetic mutation.

 

Maybe it's God's way of telling us to sit up and pay attention in case something bigger comes along?

 

All right, time to stop my virus/epidemiology/theological philosophizing. My son is having trouble with his tinkertoys!! hehe

 

[Teaberry]

Turtlemama, thanks for posting that critically important info from Drum-runner's website:

 

http://www.drum-runners.com/Comment.html

 

Everyone needs to print a copy out and have a family sit-down soon.

 

It strikes me how well informed people are in terms of quarantine. Several said they have some kind of out building or other housing for the breadwinner to stay in until they know he is not contagious. That is good.

 

I have a question for those planning to do that. If your dh does come down with the flu, do you plan to go inside his out building or whatever to take care of him? How do you plan to take care of the person who gets the flu, while at the same time continue quarantine?

 

 

 

 

[drumrunner]

World War I claimed an estimated 16 million lives. The influenza epidemic that swept the world in 1918 killed an estimated 50 million people. One fifth of the world's population was attacked by this deadly virus. Within months, it had killed more people than any other illness in recorded history.

 

The plague emerged in two phases. In late spring of 1918, the first phase, known as the "three-day fever," appeared without warning. Few deaths were reported. Victims recovered after a few days. When the disease surfaced again that fall, it was far more severe. Scientists, doctors, and health officials could not identify this disease which was striking so fast and so viciously, eluding treatment and defying control. Some victims died within hours of their first symptoms. Others succumbed after a few days; their lungs filled with fluid and they suffocated to death.

 

The plague did not discriminate. It was rampant in urban and rural areas, from the densely populated East coast to the remotest parts of Alaska. Young adults, usually unaffected by these types of infectious diseases, were among the hardest hit groups along with the elderly and young children. The flu afflicted over 25 percent of the U.S. population. In one year, the average life expectancy in the United States dropped by 12 years."

 

 

 

 

sound familiar? Getting your Will together for your survivors is also a part of prepping.

http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/influenza-epidemic/

[drumrunner]

From an old post I placed on another forum some time ago, but relevant to those folks who are storing grain for unpleasant times:

 

Storing Grains, Aflatoxin Contamination & Detection

 

From a long time ago when I worked as a lab tech, this came to mind that the individuals storing their own grains should be aware of, aflatoxins. This is a link from which this excerpt was taken: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aflatoxin

 

"Aflatoxins are toxic and among the most carcinogenic substances known.[1] After entering the body, aflatoxins are metabolized by the liver to a reactive intermediate, aflatoxin M1, an epoxide. Aflatoxin is frequently misspelled as "aflotoxin" and "alfatoxin", which could be confused with alpha toxin.

 

Crops which are frequently affected include cereals (maize, sorghum, pearl millet, rice, wheat), oilseeds (peanut, soybean, sunflower, cotton), spices (chile peppers, black pepper, coriander, turmeric, ginger), and tree nuts (almond, pistachio, walnut, coconut, brazil nut).

 

The toxin can also be found in the milk of animals which are fed contaminated feed."

 

There is a LOT more to read at the link above, it might be a good idea to give the article a look.

 

An extract for detecting aflatoxin contaminated grains:

 

http://old.iupac.org/publications/pac/1973/pdf/3503x0259.pdf

 

http://www.aflatoxin.info/scholar_1.asp?select=8

 

http://www.aflatoxin.info/health.asp

[K_L]

Just a warning to some people who don't think of this as a serious concern.

 

a few years ago when my dd was about 3 months old there was a cold that was going around, it was about the middle of August, it was just a little cold but every child in our small town of about 7,500 people seemed to catch it. it lasted for about Four months as just a little cold going around. buy January It Hit, and it hit hard in 14 hours 51 babies were flown out to larger hospitals. our small hospital was full and did not have the equipment to deal whith how terribly sick these children were most of them were on life support. with in a week every hospital in western canada and many in the Pacific Northwest of the USA were full of sick children from our small town and surounding commuities. many of the babies died. almost every child that survived (formerly perfectly health children under the age of 6) are now ashmatics.

it was a terrible thing to witness. many doctors fled the area and were hunted down by the RCMP and forced to work. my Mom is a nurse so we probably heard more about it than most people.

When my little baby got it she was one of the first cases. she was sick almost at the point of death for 7 months.

Many nights we had to go to the emergency room of the hospital to have her put on a nubulizer with oxygen. On one of these occasions, the doctor on call kept dropping things. My mom commented that he looked tired. He replied that he had been in the emergency room for 72hours without a break, an hour later the police drug in a doctor who was on maternity leave ( very pregnant) the only other doctor in town.

the stangest thing about it was that if you weren't there you wouldn't have even known anything was different. there was nothing in the TV, news, or radio.

 

Anyway my mom said that if this new virus comes here most of the nurses have said that they will refuse to go to work.

 

 

 

 

[drumrunner]

June 29th

Sorry that I have not been around recently. This last month we all have watched the pandemic unfold across the world with the rapid increase in infections and fatalities. Not a day goes by now that a several reports of people dying due to complications of the swine flu are posted by several blogs and internet news agencies.

 

However, the deafening silence from the major network news organizations continues, only once in a great while is the current pandemic even mentioned, and only for a few seconds if it is. For the people who watch the evening news, this pandemic must seem to be mostly a 'non-event'; being lumped together with other trivial "earth shaking" news stories. This is a pity.

 

I have finalized my preps and have decided to spend as much time with my family as possible during the rest of this summer doing stuff we all enjoy together. In my own opinion, the window of opportunity for preparing for this fall/winter is almost closed; I fully expect a vicious recurrence of the swine flu to hammer us then. Again my opinion; once the flu season has arrived in the northern hemisphere later this year there may not be reports of a death here or a death there, but dozens, hundreds and thousands at a time.

 

If ever there was I time I want to be wrong, this is it. Nothing could please me more than for the latter part of 2009 to be a non-newsworthy time concerning pandemic flu.

 

My website will only be updated once in awhile from now on, no new documents or news article postings will be added. It will remain an online preparedness library for those who still need information. I have determined to spend the available free time with my wife and family rather than answering correspondence or updating a website. Day trips, baseball games, picnics & fishing are in order for July & August 2009; fall & winter will be here soon enough.

[TurtleMama]

(((Drumrunner))) Good perspective. Have fun, and thanks again for all your hard work in setting up that information for us to benefit from.

 

Enjoy your summer, hon. And no offense, but I hope you're wrong, too!

[drumrunner]

It might be a real good idea to read this article

http://www.scottmcpherson.net/journal/2009...et-to-come.html

[westbrook]

news reported that 1,000,000 in America has the swine flu. That is reported cases. hummm in the middle of the summer?

 

get it now before it mutates! get an immunity built up!

[Jakk]

Drum Runner, we are on the same page. My family and I are enjoying the summer because also feel the winter will bring SIP.

 

Here is a another article worth the read, it seems like some of TPTB are back pedaling. Sandman has said all along that this is "mild"... I lost respect for him and Chan a long time ago...

 

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009...966951-sun.html

 

Swine flu not so 'mild,' experts warn

 

Last Updated: 29th June 2009, 3:56am

By HELEN BRANSWELL, THE CANADIAN PRESS

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009...966951-sun.html

 

Officialdom's mantra about swine flu -- "it is overwhelmingly mild" -- might seem incongruous if we knew the number of children, teens and young adults in ICU beds right now alive only because a breathing machine has taken over for their ravaged lungs.

The heavy reliance on the word "mild " could be creating a false impression of what is actually going on and what the world may face in coming months, some experts worry.

 

Peter Sandman, a risk communications guru from Princeton, N.J., suggests if authorities are trying to ensure people don't panic about the new H1N1 outbreak, they're concerned about the wrong thing.

 

"In North America, swine flu panic is much rarer than swine flu deaths," Sandman says. "The problem isn't panic or even excessive anxiety. The problem is complacency, both about what's going to happen and about what might happen."

 

When the new H1N1 virus burst onto the world's radar, it was, for awhile, the hottest story of the 24-7 news cycle. The long-threatened pandemic, it seemed, was finally underway.

 

But instead of the 60%-plus death rate of H5N1 avian flu -- seen for years as the pandemic frontrunner -- the wire was tripped by a seemingly wimpy virus that's causing a lot of flu, but is no viral monster.

 

In many places, public health officials have bent over backward to tamp down anticipated panic. The results? Within a few weeks, most people appear to be convinced the pandemic was (past tense) a non-event, a blip of flu activity over-hyped by the sensationalist media hoard.

 

"When we're told that swine flu is mild, we don't think, 'It will infect a half to a third of the world population and kill a few million people, mostly young people, before it's over,' " Sandman says. "We think, 'It's like having a bad cold.'"

 

Well, swine flu isn't over. And it's not like a bad cold sweeping the globe.

 

But officials and experts are having a hard time striking the balance in messages to the public, unclear what they're dealing with now and what it might become.

 

"I think the problem is we don't know how to paint this picture properly," says Dr. Allison McGeer, a flu expert at Mount Sinai Hospital. "Because it's perfectly true that most cases are mild. But it doesn't mean that you shouldn't worry about it."

 

Regular flu, as anyone who has had it knows, is no walk in the park. And with this new flu, a small subset of people gets very, very sick. Their lungs are overwhelmed by an aggressive viral pneumonia one doctor described as looking like a "white-out" on an X-ray. A number of hospitals are struggling to keep these people alive.

 

Generally, much younger than the typical hospitalized flu patient, many of these people have been on ventilators for weeks.

 

"When you look at those things, then you begin to say, 'Well, is it really accurate, is it really fair to say that this is a mild phenomenon?' " says Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the World Health Organization's top flu expert.

 

STRANGE PATTERN

 

Fukuda and his team have been warning for some time that the unusual age pattern of severe cases, the odd out-of-season spread and the fact that the virus is killing some previously healthy young adults makes the term moderate a more appropriate severity assessment.

 

That pattern, seen in previous pandemics, makes flu watchers sit up and take notice.

 

"What it really leads you to conclude is that, boy, we'd better watch this pretty carefully," Fukuda says.

 

There still isn't a good estimate of the percentage of total swine flu cases that becomes gravely ill, or the percentage that succumbs to the virus' onslaught. Currently the numbers may seem small; 25 deaths in Canada, 127 in the U.S., 263 worldwide. (Swine flu has already beat bird flu in terms of death tolls.)

 

But as a human pathogen this virus is still a baby, despite its rapid global spread. No one knows what it's going to be when it grows up.

[drumrunner]

Summer is almost over, maybe a handful more of 90 degree days, then 'poof', autumn and winter will come crashing in . Over the few last nights, in mid-August, we had near-record low temperatures here in Denver. For me and my family this summer was way too short, but we did enjoy ourselves to the maximum.

 

Guess the purpose of this post is to remind myself that I best be thinking of heat. Maybe splurge and get a few replacement wicks for the kerosene heaters, stock up on the kerosene, clean the furnace filters, a little more propane perhaps. Going to hit the thrift stores later and get any blankets that I can find, coats and boots too.

 

The children are back in school, the pandemic has not abated, cold weather is almost here; the makings of a 'Perfect Storm' are all in place.