2020 Corona Virus

[Homesteader]

Johns Hopkins’ Dr. Mark Makary, writing recently in the Wall Street Journal, concludes that the welcome collapse in virus cases, which began in January, cannot be attributed solely to the end of holiday festivities or the start-up of vaccines. He says it also suggests that the medical community is vastly underestimating the number of people in the country who have contracted the virus, are asymptomatic, and who have developed immunities.   Makary thinks, assessing the data, that "The country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection."  He concludes that the U.S. is nearing "herd immunity" and that "COVID will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life."  

 

Youyang Gu, a data scientist whose model has proved the most accurate forecaster of COVID deaths, predicts we will reach herd immunity (or "normality," as his team now calls it) by June/July. Not as soon as April, but soon. 

 

None of these forecasters suggests we should drop all precautions. Indeed, progress may require continued mask-wearing and social-distancing for the next few months. But by early summer, we can resume our pre-COVID lives. 

[Mother]

Ambergris, thank you for the information.  It explains some of the things I'd been seeing happening. 

 

Homey, that is encouraging news.  I would embrace wholeheartedly the ability to be out and among family and friends freely again.  Still,  I've learned over the years not to believe everything I read or hear.    I, for one, will continue to be cautious.  

Edited February 22, 2021 by Mother

[Mt_Rider]

On 2/17/2021 at 6:20 PM, Ambergris said:

My guess is that in Iowa, they test you if they are pretty sure you have it, while in Rhode Island, they test you if you don't run fast and far enough.

 

 

 

On 2/18/2021 at 5:07 AM, Ambergris said:

electronic “nose” manufactured by Dutch company Breathomix

 

Like the cancer-sniffing dogs.......or airport drug dogs...  Still, 70-75% leaves a quarter of errors.   

 

MtRider 

[Mt_Rider]

On 2/19/2021 at 5:49 PM, Ambergris said:

Without a robust national surveillance program,

 

...talking about detecting the mutations of the COVID virus but does anyone understand how the scientists would surveil?  By running more of the positive tests from lots of folks thru additional lab testing?

 

MtRider ...new job market?  Medical lab tech???

 

 

[Mt_Rider]

23 hours ago, Ambergris said:

91 percent were not serious they say... what does not serious mean?  Because that nine percent of of the 7,000 means a lot of people when you extrapolate to hundreds of millions of people (or even billions of people) eventually getting vaccinated.

 

 

[Ambergris]

I am getting conflicting information on the California variant.  The name of it keeps changing, for one thing. 

 

Here's one article:

 

Researchers warn 'the devil is already here' after analysis of California COVID-19 variant
Brendan Morrow Tue, February 23, 2021, 12:14 PM

Researchers in California are expressing concern over a COVID-19 variant in the state, which the Los Angeles Times reports appears "increasingly dangerous."

Scientists from the University of California, San Francisco examined the B.1.427/B.1.429 COVID-19 variant spreading in California, and they say that it "not only spreads more readily than its predecessors, but also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and it's associated with severe illness and death," the Los Angeles Times writes.

The researchers warned that the variant should be viewed as a "variant of concern" like others from the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.
"The devil is already here," warned Dr. Charles Chiu, who led the new analysis. "I wish it were different. But the science is the science."

The California strain reportedly appears to reduce the effect of neutralizing antibodies by a factor of two, compared to a factor of 6.2 for the South Africa strain. The study also suggests it "could have greater virulence," the Times writes, noting the researchers looked at 324 hospitalized patients' medical charts and found that those infected with the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant were more likely to be admitted to the ICU, as well as more likely to die. Still, Chiu said this could potentially be a result of hospitals being overwhelmed due to the increased transmissibility of the variant, rather than the variant itself being more deadly.

 

There are opposing views, such as by Eric Topol, who calls the California strain a media "scariant" of little consequence:

Eric Topol
@EricTopol
·
22h
There's a problem with labelling the California variant (B.1.427/B.1.429) "increasingly dangerous" when there isn't even a preprint published and we're watching dramatic descent in cases, hospitalization and deaths despite its high frequency

 

+++++

Eric Topol is on Twitter with some interesting commentary.  He's worth looking up every once in a while.

Edited February 24, 2021 by Ambergris

[Mother]

Are they just doing checks on hospitalized cases and not all cases?  It would make sense that those who were hospitalized would be more ill.  Isn't mutation to be expected with viruses?  It always seems the regular flu has so many variants that it's hard for the manufacturers of vaccines to figure out which one will be more prevalent in any given year so they can match their vaccine to as many as possible.  

 

I'm not saying that a nasty 'mutant ninja virus' is what anyone wants to deal with and I'm glad they are trying to keep up on the latest mutation but I also don't believe it's unexpected.  

[Mt_Rider]

14 hours ago, Mother said:

Isn't mutation to be expected with viruses? 

 

According to what DH has studied, GENERALLY....the virus/bacteria seeks to NOT kill off it's host with the mutations. 

 

In other words, if you have Virus A that is killing off the hosts, Virus A will not last as long as Mutation Virus B that is far less deadly to the host.  

 

  LOL  ..so it's not like virus has a mind to figure out killing host is bad.....     Rather, it will spread more...becoming the dominate virus merely because it's hosts last longer and spread and such....

 

   Did that make sense on the 3 attempts to explain it?   

 

MtRider  ...it's late 

[euphrasyne]

So there is this game called Plague, Inc that is super fun to play.  You can play real life scenarios on it and it requires thought.  A fatal virus does not necessarily kill fast.  A virus doesn't seek to do anything--it just replicates.  The more people and time it has, the more it does.  The more replications it has, the greater the chance of mutation that is more deadly/fatal/contagious.  The contagion and the fatality are actually separate.  An instantly fatal virus may last longer than say an STD simply because it is passed through air, water, animals, or corpses.    Contagion does not depend on the host being alive, and can exist for extended times without a host for several virus.  Examples of this are corona lasting for a few days on a box, or Hep A lasting weeks on a dirty counter.  A frozen Siberian virus was unthawed and still infectious 30K years later.  

 

~I play way too many video games and read too much medical literature.  

 

Here is an article I used with my kids to explain some of the basics:

There are more viruses than stars in the universe. Why do only some infect us? (nationalgeographic.com)

Edited February 25, 2021 by euphrasyne

[Ambergris]

That's why Ebola never got very far.  It's been killing off the hosts before they could spread the virus.

[Ambergris]

The trick to winning Plague is not to let any fatal symptoms evolve until after Greenland is infected.  It also helps to start in India, since the virus is always discovered when the first country is fully infected.

[euphrasyne]

De evolving symptoms works works well on the bacteria mode.  There are a few other things that can work better for some of the other things.   You can ignore Greenland on a few if you environmentally harden to cold and then pass via water and animals.  It will infect before Australia that way.   I find Simian Flu and Prion a bit more tricky.   Mega-Brutal <3.    

[Mt_Rider]

Plague ....is a video game, huh?     

 

Well, I think COVID nearly becomes that too, for all the charts and maps and computations and such these days.  Some research type folks isolated away with the numbers and graphs might well be those who NEED to take a peek out into the real hospitals.  The numbers in research don't always add up.....sometimes because of the mutations/variables we're referring to... 

 

MtRider  ....some of these COVID mutations do sound....ominous.   

[Ambergris]

 

Nationwide, about 15% of the population has had a first dose of the vaccine, which is apparently the important dose.

Alaska, the Dakotas, New Mexico, and Connecticut have all all dosed at least 20% of the population

Tennessee, Texas, Alabama, Utah, Georgia, and Puerto Rico have dosed less than 14%.

 

The February good news re dropping cases appears to have ended, but the number of people in hospitals is still going down in most states:

For the week ending Sunday, Feb. 28, 2021

	CURRENTLY HOSPITALIZED
State	Avg. this week	Per 100K	1-wk chg.
United States	51,838	16	–15.2%
Alaska	43	6	+22.2%
South Dakota	94	11	+2.3%
Washington, D.C.	192	27	–5.1%
Rhode Island	172	16	–5.9%
Michigan	831	8	–5.9%
Maine	81	6	–6.3%
Missouri	1,191	19	–7.5%
Colorado	418	7	–7.8%
Mississippi	531	18	–8.0%
Tennessee	959	14	–9.5%
Nebraska	162	8	–10.1%
New York State	5,670	29	–10.1%
Florida	3,955	18	–10.2%
Delaware	167	17	–10.6%
West Virginia	272	15	–10.7%
Idaho	142	8	–10.7%
Kentucky	829	19	–11.0%
Maryland	941	16	–11.1%
Puerto Rico	197	6	–11.1%
Minnesota	264	5	–11.4%
Utah	258	8	–11.7%
New Jersey	1,993	22	–12.4%
Wisconsin	337	6	–12.5%
Pennsylvania	1,895	15	–12.6%
Iowa	208	7	–12.9%
Oregon	173	4	–13.0%
Connecticut	494	14	–13.2%
Illinois	1,425	11	–13.3%
Virginia	1,484	17	–14.4%
Montana	78	7	–14.5%
Hawaii	35	3	–14.6%
New Mexico	236	11	–14.9%
Texas	6,488	22	–15.0%
Georgia	2,557	24	–15.1%
Ohio	1,274	11	–16.1%
New Hampshire	99	7	–16.1%
Washington	449	6	–16.3%
Arkansas	519	17	–16.6%
Louisiana	679	15	–17.2%
Indiana	796	12	–17.4%
North Carolina	1,493	14	–18.9%
Massachusetts	835	12	–18.9%
Kansas	233	8	–19.6%
South Carolina	918	18	–19.8%
Oklahoma	574	15	–20.1%
Vermont	30	5	–23.5%
California	6,440	16	–23.6%
Arizona	1,409	19	–23.7%
Nevada	531	17	–24.3%
Alabama	727	15	–26.6%
Wyoming	23	4	–31.6%
North Dakota	27	4	–31.8%

 

Regardless of the good news re hospitals, the number of people dying has gone up in nineteen states:

For the week ending Sunday, Feb. 28, 2021

	DEATHS TO DATE		ONE-WEEK TOTAL
State	Total deaths	Per 100K	New deaths	Per 100K	1-wk chg.
United States	513,721	155	14,387	4.3	+5.5%
Maine	703	52	45	3.3	+400.0%
Virginia	8,552	100	1,221	14.3	+282.8%
Oregon	2,208	52	53	1.3	+194.4%
Hawaii	439	31	9	0.6	+125.0%
Texas	44,031	152	1,635	5.6	+81.3%
Oklahoma	4,428	112	247	6.2	+57.3%
Idaho	1,860	104	34	1.9	+47.8%
Rhode Island	2,502	236	126	11.9	+46.5%
Utah	1,935	60	83	2.6	+43.1%
Mississippi	6,681	225	128	4.3	+40.7%
Tennessee	11,411	167	278	4.1	+39.0%
Washington, D.C.	1,017	144	22	3.1	+37.5%
Iowa	5,471	173	135	4.3	+35.0%
South Dakota	1,888	213	25	2.8	+31.6%
California	52,215	132	2,874	7.3	+23.7%
Kentucky	4,637	104	190	4.3	+15.2%
Wisconsin	7,014	121	143	2.5	+13.5%
Ohio	17,297	148	481	4.1	+2.3%
Indiana	12,573	187	201	3.0	+1.0%
North Dakota	1,445	190	7	0.9	+0%
Montana	1,357	127	15	1.4	+0%
New Jersey	23,252	262	394	4.4	–2.5%
New Mexico	3,716	177	92	4.4	–3.2%
Alabama	9,929	203	337	6.9	–3.7%
Maryland	7,869	130	154	2.5	–4.3%
Puerto Rico	2,036	64	57	1.8	–5.0%
Washington	4,956	65	134	1.8	–8.8%
Minnesota	6,483	115	51	0.9	–8.9%
Arizona	15,980	220	475	6.5	–9.9%
Vermont	204	33	7	1.1	–12.5%
New York State	47,335	243	800	4.1	–12.9%
Colorado	5,951	103	59	1.0	–13.2%
Massachusetts	16,118	234	292	4.2	–14.6%
Florida	31,406	146	972	4.5	–16.1%
Pennsylvania	24,056	188	416	3.2	–17.5%
Missouri	8,228	134	229	3.7	–18.2%
Louisiana	9,608	207	142	3.1	–18.4%
Illinois	22,735	179	269	2.1	–22.0%
Nebraska	2,082	108	35	1.8	–22.2%
West Virginia	2,300	128	39	2.2	–23.5%
New Hampshire	1,170	86	16	1.2	–23.8%
Michigan	16,508	165	166	1.7	–25.6%
Connecticut	7,622	214	99	2.8	–30.3%
North Carolina	11,212	107	286	2.7	–34.3%
Delaware	1,422	146	55	5.6	–34.5%
South Carolina	8,530	166	206	4.0	–36.8%
Georgia	17,295	163	551	5.2	–36.9%
Wyoming	671	116	9	1.6	–40.0%
Nevada	4,957	161	85	2.8	–47.9%
Kansas	4,735	163	121	4.2	–51.6%
Alaska	290	40	1	0.1	–88.9%
Arkansas	5,243	174	-114	0.0	–223.9%

 

What we are seeing, I think, is the predicted peak of cases in January, falling off sharply through the first three weeks of February, with the peak of hospitalizations following (and falling) a week or two behind that, and hopefully the peak of deaths following a week or two later--meaning now.  400% on 45 means 30 some new cases--that's not huge in the big picture.  Texas and Virginia are in trouble, especially if the count goes up like that again on the first Sunday in March, but this is really good news for 48 states and I am reasonably confident the good news will continue for the next week.  Then something will swing, but that's then.   

 

Edited March 3, 2021 by Ambergris

[TheCG]

https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-lifts-mask-mandate-opens-texas-100-percent

 

This should be interesting.  Won't affect much up here, except for the vitriolic mask-deniers will have more vitriol.  Businesses haven't been enforcing anything around here, so it'll still be that the people who want to wear masks will masks, and the people who don't won't.

[Mother]

I know people are tired of being locked down and TOLD what to do.  And there's something about spring coming that makes people want to get out and DO things.  I can understand that totally.  There are a lot of reasons I can think of for the PTB to be backing off on 'mandates'.  I just hope people are also responsible enough to realize it's still out there and some of us are more at risk than others and could still use their help at avoiding it.  

 

On a side note, in looking up the numbers from the 1918 pandemic it appears (according to the CDC) it's numbers were still much worse than this one.  It was estimated that over 500 million world wide became infected with the number of deaths estimated at 50 million worldwide. About 675 thousand of those deaths occurred in the US.  Compare that with 115,420,464 cases worldwide as of today and 2,562,917 deaths world wide with approximately 530,000 of those deaths occurring in the US.  Interesting. 

[Ambergris]

He's opening the state, dropping the mask rules, and announcing that the Covid rates are fixing to explode because of federal immigration policies--when Mexico has never had anywhere near the infection rate Texas has.

[Midnightmom]

3 hours ago, Ambergris said:

He's opening the state, dropping the mask rules, and announcing that the Covid rates are fixing to explode because of federal immigration policies--when Mexico has never had anywhere near the infection rate Texas has.

 

Lets be fair here. The "immigrants" are NOT Mexicans. And the ones that are coming to our borders are only passing through Mexico on their way here.

[Ambergris]

The trek is over 1100 miles through Mexico alone, meaning well over two weeks of walking for a healthy person.  In a recent testing binge for a caravan, less than I think thirty out of over 2000 or 3000 were found to test positive for Covid.  Remember hearing how "the cowards never started, and the weak died on the way?"  Well, the sick don't get far.

[Homesteader]

According to the CDC report released today, almost 80% of those who were hospitlized, on ventilators, or died from covid were either overweight or obese. The obese number was over 50%. News came through

CNBC.com.  There are a lot more reasons to stay healthy that we only discovering. 

[Ambergris]

Per the Business Insider, the tests are still showing available vaccines, this one focusing on Moderna, are significantly less effective against the South African variant.  Details here: https://www.businessinsider.com/south-africa-variant-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccine-study-mutation-2021-3 

Only 21 countries are at the peak of their infection cycle. These include Brazil, Cuba, Jamaica, Ivory Coast, Botswana, Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Finland, Hungary, and Mongolia. 

I'll get to the charts later today.

[Mother]

12 hours ago, Homesteader said:

According to the CDC report released today, almost 80% of those who were hospitlized, on ventilators, or died from covid were either overweight or obese. The obese number was over 50%.

I might be in trouble.   More reason to stick closer to my eating plan.... 

[Ambergris]

Countries reporting the most deaths each day, averaging 7 days' reports
USA 1,597  

BRAZIL 1,525 

MEXICO 682

RUSSIA 416 

ITALY 308

US deaths last week: 11,800 down 18.0% from the prior week

deaths in the last week in order of number of deaths

For the week ending Sunday, March 7, 2021

	DEATHS TO DATE		ONE-WEEK TOTAL
State	Total deaths	Per 100K	New deaths	Per 100K	1-wk chg.
California	54,225	137	2,010	5.1	–30.1%
Texas	45,527	157	1,496	5.2	–8.5%
Virginia	9,596	112	1,044	12.2	–14.5%
Florida	32,266	150	860	4.0	–11.5%
New York State	48,051	247	716	3.7	–10.5%
Georgia	17,906	169	611	5.8	+10.9%
Arizona	16,328	224	348	4.8	–26.7%
Pennsylvania	24,394	191	338	2.6	–18.8%
New Jersey	23,574	265	322	3.6	–18.3%
Massachusetts	16,417	238	299	4.3	+2.4%
North Carolina	11,502	110	290	2.8	+1.4%
Illinois	23,014	182	279	2.2	+3.7%
Missouri	8,471	138	243	4.0	+6.1%
South Carolina	8,754	170	224	4.4	+8.7%
Alabama	10,148	207	219	4.5	–35.0%
Ohio	17,502	150	205	1.8	–57.4%
Kentucky	4,819	108	182	4.1	–4.2%
Indiana	12,737	189	164	2.4	–18.4%
Michigan	16,658	167	150	1.5	–9.6%
Louisiana	9,748	210	140	3.0	–1.4%
Tennessee	11,547	169	136	2.0	–51.1%
Mississippi	6,808	229	127	4.3	–0.8%
Oklahoma	4,534	115	106	2.7	–57.1%
New Mexico	3,808	182	92	4.4	+0%
Wisconsin	7,106	122	92	1.6	–35.7%
Oregon	2,296	54	88	2.1	+66.0%
Iowa	5,558	176	87	2.8	–35.6%
Maryland	7,955	132	86	1.4	–44.2%
Washington	5,041	66	85	1.1	–36.6%
Connecticut	7,704	216	82	2.3	–17.2%
Nevada	5,037	164	80	2.6	–5.9%
Kansas	4,812	165	77	2.6	–36.4%
Arkansas	5,319	176	76	2.5	–166.7%
Minnesota	6,550	116	67	1.2	+31.4%
Delaware	1,473	151	51	5.2	–7.3%
Utah	1,976	62	41	1.3	–50.6%
Rhode Island	2,541	240	39	3.7	–69.0%
Colorado	5,989	104	38	0.7	–35.6%
Nebraska	2,113	109	31	1.6	–11.4%
Puerto Rico	2,062	65	26	0.8	–54.4%
West Virginia	2,325	130	25	1.4	–35.9%
Montana	1,381	129	24	2.2	+60.0%
Idaho	1,879	105	19	1.1	–44.1%
Alaska	305	42	15	2.1	+1400.0%
New Hampshire	1,184	87	14	1.0	–12.5%
Washington, D.C.	1,030	146	13	1.8	–40.9%
South Dakota	1,900	215	12	1.4	–52.0%
Wyoming	682	118	11	1.9	+22.2%
Hawaii	445	31	6	0.4	–33.3%
Vermont	208	33	4	0.6	–42.9%
North Dakota	1,449	190	4	0.5	–42.9%
Maine	706	53	3	0.2	–93.3%

 

deaths in the last week ordered by how hard they hit their state

For the week ending Sunday, March 7, 2021

	DEATHS TO DATE		ONE-WEEK TOTAL
State	Total deaths	Per 100K	New deaths	Per 100K	1-wk chg.
Virginia	9,596	112	1,044	12.2	–14.5%
Georgia	17,906	169	611	5.8	+10.9%
Texas	45,527	157	1,496	5.2	–8.5%
Delaware	1,473	151	51	5.2	–7.3%
California	54,225	137	2,010	5.1	–30.1%
Arizona	16,328	224	348	4.8	–26.7%
Alabama	10,148	207	219	4.5	–35.0%
South Carolina	8,754	170	224	4.4	+8.7%
New Mexico	3,808	182	92	4.4	+0%
Massachusetts	16,417	238	299	4.3	+2.4%
Mississippi	6,808	229	127	4.3	–0.8%
Kentucky	4,819	108	182	4.1	–4.2%
Florida	32,266	150	860	4.0	–11.5%
Missouri	8,471	138	243	4.0	+6.1%
New York State	48,051	247	716	3.7	–10.5%
Rhode Island	2,541	240	39	3.7	–69.0%
New Jersey	23,574	265	322	3.6	–18.3%
Louisiana	9,748	210	140	3.0	–1.4%
North Carolina	11,502	110	290	2.8	+1.4%
Iowa	5,558	176	87	2.8	–35.6%
Oklahoma	4,534	115	106	2.7	–57.1%
Pennsylvania	24,394	191	338	2.6	–18.8%
Nevada	5,037	164	80	2.6	–5.9%
Kansas	4,812	165	77	2.6	–36.4%
Arkansas	5,319	176	76	2.5	–166.7%
Indiana	12,737	189	164	2.4	–18.4%
Connecticut	7,704	216	82	2.3	–17.2%
Illinois	23,014	182	279	2.2	+3.7%
Montana	1,381	129	24	2.2	+60.0%
Oregon	2,296	54	88	2.1	+66.0%
Alaska	305	42	15	2.1	+1400.0%
Tennessee	11,547	169	136	2.0	–51.1%
Wyoming	682	118	11	1.9	+22.2%
Ohio	17,502	150	205	1.8	–57.4%
Washington, D.C.	1,030	146	13	1.8	–40.9%
Wisconsin	7,106	122	92	1.6	–35.7%
Nebraska	2,113	109	31	1.6	–11.4%
Michigan	16,658	167	150	1.5	–9.6%
Maryland	7,955	132	86	1.4	–44.2%
West Virginia	2,325	130	25	1.4	–35.9%
South Dakota	1,900	215	12	1.4	–52.0%
Utah	1,976	62	41	1.3	–50.6%
Minnesota	6,550	116	67	1.2	+31.4%
Washington	5,041	66	85	1.1	–36.6%
Idaho	1,879	105	19	1.1	–44.1%
New Hampshire	1,184	87	14	1.0	–12.5%
Puerto Rico	2,062	65	26	0.8	–54.4%
Colorado	5,989	104	38	0.7	–35.6%
Vermont	208	33	4	0.6	–42.9%
North Dakota	1,449	190	4	0.5	–42.9%
Hawaii	445	31	6	0.4	–33.3%
Maine	706	53	3	0.2	–93.3%

 

I'm not going to repeat the chart to show the order of the 14 states that showed a positive instead of a negative change.  In each case, the change was a minimal number of cases: fifteen or less, usually.  That's tragedy, not catastrophe.

number of people in hospitals (short version: it went down everywhere but Michigan and Wyoming, and stayed even in Wyoming) 

For the week ending Sunday, March 7, 2021

	CURRENTLY HOSPITALIZED
State	Avg. this week	Per 100K	1-wk chg.
United States	43,675	13	–15.7%
Texas	5,248	18	–19.1%
New York State	5,136	26	–9.4%
California	4,901	12	–23.9%
Florida	3,512	16	–11.2%
Georgia	2,195	21	–14.2%
New Jersey	1,877	21	–5.8%
Pennsylvania	1,621	13	–14.4%
Virginia	1,269	15	–14.5%
North Carolina	1,261	12	–15.5%
Illinois	1,214	10	–14.8%
Arizona	1,093	15	–22.4%
Ohio	1,009	9	–20.8%
Missouri	1,008	16	–15.4%
Michigan	873	9	+5.1%
Maryland	859	14	–8.6%
Tennessee	837	12	–12.7%
Massachusetts	732	11	–12.3%
Indiana	714	11	–10.3%
South Carolina	683	13	–25.6%
Kentucky	640	14	–22.8%
Louisiana	573	12	–15.7%
Alabama	562	12	–22.8%
Mississippi	442	15	–16.8%
Connecticut	433	12	–12.3%
Washington	424	6	–5.6%
Nevada	420	14	–21.0%
Oklahoma	420	11	–26.8%
Arkansas	386	13	–25.6%
Colorado	368	6	–12.1%
Wisconsin	267	5	–20.7%
Utah	240	8	–6.9%
Minnesota	233	4	–11.8%
Kansas	206	7	–11.6%
West Virginia	200	11	–26.6%
Iowa	181	6	–13.0%
New Mexico	180	9	–23.8%
Washington, D.C.	165	23	–14.5%
Puerto Rico	152	5	–22.7%
Rhode Island	148	14	–14.1%
Nebraska	147	8	–9.4%
Oregon	138	3	–20.4%
Idaho	136	8	–4.0%
Delaware	130	13	–21.8%
New Hampshire	87	6	–12.8%
South Dakota	84	10	–10.9%
Montana	69	7	–11.5%
Maine	69	5	–14.7%
Alaska	29	4	–32.3%
Hawaii	28	2	–20.0%
Vermont	25	4	–14.9%
Wyoming	23	4	+0%
North Dakota	22	3	–17.5%

 

 

[Ambergris]

This is a chart of daily reports of new cases in the US, last updated March 3, with the red line being a running seven-day average:

[Ambergris]

The view of the forest, not just the tree of the week, is important because even though we have had an up here and there, the overall trend  is still down.   I don't think the ninety three, ninety four thousand people a month we had dying in December and January is coming back unless we have a massive mutation or civil unrest.  March's numbers are only a little worse than the end of February's when they are bad, and are better when they are good.